Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Monday 12/9/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Two years after an ill-advised turn as a full-fall staple, The Sing-Off is back into its much more successful Holiday Event Mode, and it did significantly better than any of its fall 2011 numbers. However, it surely benefited from its first ever direct The Voice lead-in, and it dropped all the way from 2.9 at 9:00 to 2.1 by 10:30 (in prelims). Original airings this Wednesday and Thursday will be more telling.
  • I've been slower than many bailing on Almost Human's prospects, but I was ready to go if it dropped again this week against depressed competition. But it didn't happen; the show was up a tick. So I consider it still in the mix (just compare it to everything the network is airing from Tuesday to Thursday!), but it will still have to deal with original CBS next week and then some rather erratic scheduling early in 2014.
  • A whooping four-tenths downward adjustment in finals left the premiere of ABC's own holiday reality series The Great Christmas Light Fight at a mediocre 1.4 demo.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Santa Claus is Comin' to Town 1.6 35% -6% -16% +45% 1.6
The Great Christmas Light Fight 1.4 32% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -7% +22% 1.4
Castle (R) 1.0 24% -33% -5% 1.1
ABC:-18%+21%
How I Met Your Mother (R) 1.2 34% -60% -63% 1.2
2 Broke Girls (R) 1.2 32% -56% -60% 1.3
Mike and Molly 2.0 33% -17%-0.4-1.5 6/6 n/a -17% -46% 2.1
Mom (R) 1.3 30% -38% -66% 1.3
Hostages 1.1 30% +0%+0.0-0.8 7/12 n/a +0% -56% 1.2
CBS:-36%-58%
The Voice Mon 3.5 34% +3%+0.1n/a 9/12 -8% +3% -8% 3.4
The Sing-Off 2.4 36% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -27% +33% 2.2
NBC:-17%+12%
Almost Human 1.8 38% +6%+0.1n/a 4/5 n/a +6% +29% 1.8
Sleepy Hollow 2.2 42% +0%+0.0-0.1 9/10 n/a +144% +52% 2.2
Fox:+54%+40%
Kung Fu Panda Holiday Special 0.4 42% n/a +0% -33% 0.4
Merry Madagascar 0.4 44% n/a +0% -33% 0.4
iHeartRadio One Direction Release Party 0.2 42% n/a -50% -64% 0.2
CW:-25%-48%
Big5:-12%-11%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

33 comments:

Spot said...

The Mentalist is making a stronger case for that improbable seventh season if it can sustain these numbers.

Spot said...

I understand where You're coming from, Spot. Almost Human is still in the mix, because it's rather unclear how many hours of reality Fox is going to air comes next fall. We can look at it so, right?

Fox needs to fill 10 hours Monday to Friday. Two hours of comedy is a give. No way Fox expands with no good anchors, no way they cut back in a year when The X Factor departure leaves a big hole in their schedule. That leaves 8 hours for drama + reality.

4 hours of reality = 4 fall dramas are Sleepy Hollow, Bones, Glee and new drama. Period.
But with 3 hours of reality = they need either 2nd new drama, either to renew one of Almost Human / Gang Related / Rake to air in fall.
And if it's gonna be only 2 hours of reality = for fall schedule they need *BOTH* additional new drama and one of those 3 rookies.

With so many ifs I'm inclined only to move it from "surely canceled" to "almost surely canceled". Especially as bumping late January episodes to allow doubling up Sleepy Hollow season finale and The Following season premiere is kinda the writing on the wall for this show.

Spot said...

I'm inclined to think there can't be more than three reality hours unless they make another huge X Factor-esque investment. Just don't see them putting on a bunch of new reality programs. And without either of those, even getting to three is tough, because summer staples like So You Think You Can Dance are no longer strong enough to bring into the regular season. Seems like the three would be: MasterChef Jr, another Gordon Ramsey hour, and some new show.


They still need a Wednesday lineup that is seasonal because of Idol's return in January, so I could see something like MasterChef Jr/13 eps of Almost Human there. They did something similar with a similar-rated show (Human Target) and Hell's Kitchen a few years ago.

Spot said...

I think the erratic scheduling hints at a cancel for Almost Human, but I totally agree, there's no way they'll go with four reality hours in the fall.

Bones, SH/Following, Glee (sigh), and NG make 3.5 returning hours. One more comedy returns - surely Nine-Nine given the skedding (the ratings are going to be close regardless, "they like it" could be decisive, and they clearly like Nine-Nine), but I can't rule out Mindy given its remarkable skew. (Actually, I couldn't rule out Netflix picking it up if Fox dropped it. Would be splashy, and it hits a streaming-friendly crowd as it is.)

Anyway, four returning hours. One new drama, that's five. One new comedy block, that's six. The seventh hour is either AH or a new drama, and I'm guessing it's a new drama, with my prediction being that it's 24: LAD audibled into the regular season with Gang Related.

Of course, if Rake hits, AH is 100% dead anyway, and then who knows what happens. (Bones cancellation?)

I could imagine something like this:
MON: Bones, Sleepy Hollow (Following in January)
TUE: Nine-Nine/newbie, NG/newbie
WED: 24 (Idol in January), Gang Related (Idol in January)
THU: new reality (Idol in January), Glee
FRI: Ramsey, Ramsey

Other new dramas would get November and January launches with NFL lead-ins, just like this season (though Fox called an audible out of the Rake post-playoff launch).

Spot said...

But can they develop any new 1-hour reality in time for the fall schedule? From TheFutonCritic data it seems out of reality shows they're developing, only Dream Date (dating reality produced by Ryan Seacrest) can be ready for fall. And I think it's a 2-hourer.

Maybe they can go with 2 cycles of Idol? Not permanently, only as a bridge until they figure out what to do in 2015-16. They'd be on a tight schedule, but if they'd held first 2 phases of auditions simultaneously for both cycles, then for 3rd phase (when judges actually appear) and the rest of season to have separate judge panels ... it seems doable to me. Not sure it is, though. And I guess they wouldn't do 2 cycles unless pistol is pointed to their head.

Spot said...

I declared The Mindy Project dead not so long ago. Yeah, it seems I exaggerated a bit. I'm smarter after I saw some A18-34 and W18-34 numbers SonOfTheBronx published over past few weeks. Extrapolating those numbers (so those bellow are not exact averages! ) onto entire season we get something like:
A18-34: New Girl 2.1, Mindy 1.6, B99 1.5, Dads 1.2
But W18-34: New Girl 2.5, Mindy 2.1, B99 1.5, Dads 1.2

While I expected Mindy beats Brooklyn in W18-34, it suprises me it's so soundly, that's around 30%. Then TMP is still in a race, but still I think B99 wins that race.

Your schedule seems reasonable ... but if they push back Gang Relaed and "24" from spring to fall, what they're gonna air Monday 8 PM from March 4th (likely date of Almost Human finale) till end of the season?

Spot said...

Well if that makes the cut and is two hours, then i would still say 3 is most likely: Dream Date + one Ramsay. I think multiple Ramsay shows is a bit of a desperation move, it's just one I thought they could make for lack of other options.


I would say no to two Idols, since overexposing singing shows was part of what got them in this spot in the first place. But who knows!

Spot said...

If Fox didn't jump into the two-cycles-a-season trend with American Idol was the show was a megahit, it feels very unlikely now. A benefit of an unscripted show is that they can go into production off-cycle and make it to air quicker. So though Fox may not have much in the pipeline now, the small turnaround time needed for such shows makes them more flexible.

Spot said...

Wayward Pines, another limited series, would be an option.

Spot said...

I would agree about the erratic scheduling, except I can't figure out the motivation behind those moves in the first place. Seems to me you could easily argue it hurts ALL THREE shows... longer winter break for Sleepy Hollow, The Following has to wait 8 days after its NFL preview before airing again, and Almost Human disappears for three weeks. What am I missing?

Spot said...

Yeah, I thought so. Thanks. I meant, if they'd have no other option at all, then maybe...

Anyway, I completely agree with you, guys: the most logical scenario is 3 = 1 + 1 + 1 (Master Chef Junior + another Ramsey + new reality). And I agree there's no way they can develop new 3-hourer in time for next fall.

But if I'm reading their inventory well (and there's no guarantee I do), then only possible scenarios seems to be:
A. 2 = 1 + 1 (Master Chef Junior + another Ramsey), surely they won't commit self-saturation with 3 cooking shows
B. 3 = 2 + 1 (Dream Date + Master Chef Junior)
C. 4 = 2 + 1 + 1 (Dream Date + Master Chef Junior + another Ramsey)

Plus unlikely
D. 4 = 3 + 1 (fall cycle of Idol + Master Chef Junior)

Spot said...

I don't understand why so many people believe W18-34 is worth more than M18-34. M18-34 are scarcer (they watch TV), so by the exact same principle that 18-49>total viewers and 18-34>18-49, then M18-34>W18-34, which would mean that out of two shows with the same A18-34, the one with the lowest W18-34 actually has the edge. What am I missing? Honest question!

Spot said...

I agree. It is very puzzling especially because they had the right arrangement and went out of their way to change it to one that hurts all shows involved. The only thing I can come up with is that there is some creative decision behind Sleepy Hollow needing a 2 hour finale in the same night badly but that is a very very weak reason and I don't even buy it. I would love to hear some suggestions. This goes into the same box as ABC using Trophy Wife as lead-in for two new dramas and as NBC deciding to preempt the voice to pave the way for the premiere of Almost Human.

Spot said...

If the 24/Gang Related combo works in the summer they could simply give the full seasons and let them run into fall, it wouldn't be a bad idea. But I don't see this happening. Also, I think FOX is serious about investing in the summer. I think their summer will be:


Monday: 24/Gang Related
Tuesday: Hell's Kitchen
Wednesday: Masterchef
Thursday: So You Think You Can Dance
Friday: Bones Repeats/Sleepy Hollow Repeats

Spot said...

No, I didn't want to overvalue W18-34 like some people do.
What I meant is: it's not working in Brooklyn 9-9 favor to have (roughly) 1.5 in both M18-34 and W18-34. Obviously it's better to have 2.0 in one (like Mindy has in W18-34) and 1.0 in other (like Mindy has in M18-34). In such case Fox can get premium from one of Mindy's numbers when A18-49 ratings are not so great, to say at least.


Should B99 have 2.0 M18-34 and 1.0 W18-34, then it would be another story. I think you're right, it would be actually better than to have W18-34 2.0.

Spot said...

Sleepy Hollow - no hiatus (except few weeks over holidays as all other shows, of course)
The Following - 8 days between special preview (19th) and regular timeslot premiere (27th), let's call it a 1 day hiatus :)
Almost Human - 21 days between episode 8 (13th) and 9 (Feb 4th)


I wouldn't call it equal treatment. Or am I missing something?

Spot said...

I don't think I get your point, at all. If 18-34 is the same, the more M18-34 the better!



Let's see, using your numbers, in absolute terms, this is how it goes:
B99: 1,01 millions A18-34, 0.51 millions W18-34, 0,51 millions M18-34
Mindy 1.08 millions A18-34, 0.71 millions W18-34, 0.38 million M18-34


Difference in A18-34 negligible, so the M18-34 of B99 will make the overall A18-34 more profitable IMO. On top of that, you have an advantage for B99 also from A34-49.

Spot said...

Why would Fox try and sell A18-34 for Mindy? It would be unwise to do so. See numbers
Mindy A18-49 / A18-34 / W18-34 / M18-34
1.4 / 1.5 / 2.0 / 1.0

Which number sticks out? 2.0 in W18-34. Then Fox will sell ads inventory of TMP to advertisers interested in W18-34, ones interested in those 0.71 millions eyeballs. Or at least try and sell as much as possible of it to such advertisers.

While
B99 A18-49 / A18-34 / W18-34 / M18-34
1.6 / 1.5 / 1.5 / 1.5

There is no such number sticking out. And if they sell those 0.51 millions M18-34 eyeballs, it surely cannot be worth same as those 0.71 mil. female ones. Even bigger M18-34 scarcity? Yes, but is certainly not so much, not 30% bigger. If it was 0.71 male eyeballs, then it'd be another story.

Mindy in 30% better situation? No, at least I don't think so. That B99 advantage in A35-49 must be worth something, I guess. How much? I said I have no idea.

Spot said...

You have a very different notion than the one I have in terms of how pricing for TV ads works. For me, it is as simple as each M18-34 is worth X, each W18-34 is worth Y, each M35-49 is worth Z, etc etc (obviously you can even have as many subsets inside each one of these groups as advertisers see fit, I am just going by what we usually see the most). Then you multiply the number of people in each group by the respective price (X,Y, Z) etc and you get the overall value.

Spot said...

The case of The Voice recap was solved. Deadline reported that The Blacklist had production delays because Spader was ill.

Spot said...

Ad agencies buy specific demo from networks, because campaigns they run for their clients target specific demo. If some agency needs A18-49, then it buys eyeballs from broadcaster. If client wants A12-34, then agency turns to, for example, MTV. W18-34? ABC Family, CW or whomever. But, although A18-49 is "basic currency" for the broadcasters, there is no law forbidding them trying to sell some other demo if:
A. ratings are significantly higher than A18-49 (so it's worth additional effort to a network)
B. it is actually scarce demo (like Mindy's W18-34 and unlike A25-54 or A49-99 that CBS has plenty to offer)
C. there are actual buyers

And actual buyers exist. That's not my speculation, fortunately. We know it from Spot's annual analysis of ad rates (thanks, Spot). His analysis shows W18-34 strong shows like New Girl or Mindy go by higher price. Same goes for M18-34 strong shows like Fox's Sunday animation block.

How much of Mindy's ads inventory Fox actually manages to sell by that higher price? I guess during upfront it depends on negotiation skills of their sales people, and in season on supply&demand.
But for sake of argument, let's say it's 50%.
And let's say Mindys 1.4 / 1.5 / 2.0 / 1.0 = $70K / $80K / $110K / $60K per 30 secs ad.
Then (KEEP IN MIND: those are not actual numbers - my initial numbers are estimations and may be off by 10% or even 20%, and now I'm making up this 50% out of thin air):
50% * $110K + 50% * $70K = $90K average.

That way we kinda came to your "each M18-34 is worth X, each W18-34 is worth Y, each M35-49 is worth Z...". But no, I don't think you're actually right. Your logic assumes each 30-secs ad is sold at $90K price. My logic assumes none of it is sold at $90K, but average price still to be $90K.

Though, your logic works fine for waste majority of broadcast shows, as most of them don't have "ratings in some scarce demo significantly higher than A8-49 ratings" and they sell 100% of their ads using A18-49 currency.
For example, Brooklyn 9-9: 1.6 / 1.5 / 1.5 / 1.0 = $85K / $80K / 80K / $85K per 30 secs ad.
100% * $85K = $85K.

All in all, I think people overvalue W18-34 because they think Fox is able, for example, to sell 100% of Mindy's ads for a price of $110K. And I think you undervalue it, because you think it's only tiny premium on "basic" $70K price.

Spot said...

I imagine there is either production issues somewhere, or Fox doesn't want to air the second episode of The Following the day after the first (perhaps the instability of post-NFL launch times and no repeats or chance to catch up on DVR risks losing reviewers?).

Spot said...

Ah! Thanks a lot for letting me know, I missed that! Thanks!

Spot said...

Nice argument there. Thanks for taking the time to clarifying it to me. I understand what you're saying. Indeed, I was assuming that each ad has the same price (which results of a weighted average of all the subdemo prices) while you are assuming that each ad has a different price depending on the group according to which it is sold. I do think however, that the reality is something in between. While I am sure there are products (i.e. a woman shampoo) that only apply to a particular subset (and thus your logic would be the correct one) I think there are others who are targeted to the entire 18-49 demo, even though different sub-sets of that demo will be valued differently (and my logic would apply to those). For instance, if you advertise a move that is aimed to the entire 18-49 demo, it makes sense that you pay X for the 18-34s and Y for the 35-49s, with X>Y since it's harder to reach the 18-34s. The resulting price for those 30 second slots would be a weighted average of the different subsets. See my point?

Spot said...

I think they will renew it for summer, doubt it's for fall.

Spot said...

I don't necessarily buy that this increase is legit. But in the slim chance that it is, I think CBS will cancel the 9pm comedy hour and launch a new drama there instead of going to all the trouble of cancelling The Mentalist and sending a veteran (Survivor/CSI/Elementary) to Sundays and use its slot to launch a new drama. Not only because it requires less moves but also because the Thursdays at 9 slot is much better to launch a new drama than any of the veterans' slots. I still find all this improbable, but I never thought we would be seeing these numbers a month ago.

Spot said...

There's some truth to that: this increase may be slightly artificial courtesy of TAR's finale. But the show has gained a few ticks since wrapping up the Red John storyline, and recent history has shown that neither The Good Wife nor The Mentalist benefit as much as 60 Minutes & TAR with the NFL overrun due to the delayed start times.
What renewing The Mentalist would mean for the other hours/shows on the network, I don't know. I think CBS is more likely to cancel an comedy hour if it can't renew Two and a Half Men rather than The Mentalist.

Spot said...

I agree. I would think they would cancel The Crazy Ones ,Two and a Half Men and The Millers next year, launching a new one after Big Bang and How I Met Your Father Mondays at 8. New dramas Mondays at 10 and Thursdays at 9 and you have the usual 3 hours of CBS. This is still very much contingent on the mentalist holding though, which I still don't buy.

Spot said...

Nonsense. When FOX will renew it? In January when audition cities already should be announced?
The X-Factor was renewed for Season 2 in early November 2011 and for Season 3 late in October 2012. Those early renewals are logical, same as with Idol there's gigantic pre-production. Year 2013? It's mid December already, and Fox is still mum.
Instead, this November Cowell signed new ITV deal for 3 more seasons of "X Factor UK" and "Britain's Got Talent". More important, on the occasion he explicitly said "I will return to The X Factor UK". He said "at some point", though. But that point is very near, I bet.

And, how do you think such an expensive show can exist with those sub 1.5 ratings? How can Fox afford that fat Cowell's paycheck ($75 millions a season) and other costs (prize, license, celebrity judge panel, bellow-the-line costs) with those miserable ratings? Or Cowell is going to work for free, instead of taking paycheck in UK? There's no financial math upon which FOX and Cowell can start to discuss about show's survival at all, let alone any chances for renewal.

Spot said...

Certainly, different advertisers will work in different ways. I imagine the actual slot prices will, indeed, best resemble a mixture of the "best" and average subset (weighted for value).

Clearly, some advertisers will pony up more for a Mindy slot than a Nine-Nine one, and vice versa. Both are more valuable than 18-49 suggests, either could be renewed with the state of the midweek schedule, either could be cancelled. I'm only confident on Nine-Nine because its post-SB schedule suggests it's adored by the network, and that the Glee collapse will make Fox very wary of 44-episode orders (Mindy would be de facto getting one if it gets past this spring, because of syndication).

Spot said...

That'll teach me to gently rib the commenters about their strange obsession about what FOX will decide in May.

Spot said...

Given The X-Factor's disappointment in the ratings, it's not unreasonable to speculate if the show will be renewed. Even when the make-up of the judging panel has been questionable (a hallmark of Factor before it even debuted), Fox has announced early renewals for the show. Breaking the pattern makes the show's future suspect.

You say it's an "obsession" of ours, I say it's our second favorite parlor game - the first being The Question. :-)


And for what it's worth, I originally thought X-Factor would be renewed but start to retrench from the schedule a la Dancing with the Stars & So You Think You Can Dance. Now I'm not so sure; a show this expensive pulling mid-1s with no resale value in any market can't survive when at least with a scripted show in the same boat there's a possibility of syndication profits and amortization of costs with reruns.

Spot said...

All I was saying is that you guys are one step away from eating couch cushions.

Merry Christmas.

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