Monday, December 23, 2013

Schedules Plus, NBC Monday

Schedules Plus is another innovative application of the historical ratings statistic A18-49+. I hope this will be the ultimate resource for comparing the evolution of shows, networks and timeslots over time, complete with ratings numbers that make a fair adjustment for the collective decline. Right now this only includes programs aired in the fall. Much more about the process that went into this at the bottom.

In 2003-04, NBC's last truly dominant season, the network had a strong Monday lineup with some unscripted properties and new drama Las Vegas. Then, after a couple years of erosion, it was one of the few nights that NBC was really able to rejuvenate during the network's declining years, riding strong new drama Heroes. As Heroes got softer and then went away, things got very lean on the night for a few years. But Monday became better than ever starting in 2012 when it became the permanent home of very strong reality series The Voice.

NBC Monday

8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2001-02 The Weakest Link Third WatchCrossing Jordan 103
90 101 119
2002-03 Fear Factor Third WatchCrossing Jordan 111
133 105 95
2003-04 Fear Factor Las VegasAverage Joe 143
148 124 158
2004-05 Fear Factor Las VegasLAX 101
109 113 81
2005-06 Surface Las VegasMedium 91
72 99 104
2006-07 Deal or No Deal HeroesStudio 60 122
116 163 87
2007-08 Chuck HeroesJourneyman 109
94 158 74
2008-09 Chuck HeroesMy Own Worst Enemy 89
80 121 66
2009-10 Heroes TraumaThe Jay Leno Show 65
82 58 56
2010-11 Chuck The EventChase 66
68 67 62
2011-12 The Sing-OffThe Playboy Club 63
66 66 58
2012-13 The Voice FallRevolution 179
208 208 122
2013-14 The Voice FallThe Blacklist 193
213 213 153
2014-15 The Voice FallThe Blacklist 186
199 199 160

Avg 120 128 100 116

2014-15 Update: The Voice was down both in fall and spring, but the rate of decline isn't alarming and certainly nothing like what Fox has experienced with American Idol. The real Monday issue for NBC was what happened at 10/9c after The Blacklist headed to Thursday; November newbie State of Affairs (74) and the summer import The Night Shift (77) both struggled. They're certainly hoping their latest thriller Blindspot will be closer to Blacklist territory.

Notable midseason replacements:
  • Season one of Medium filled in for the second half of the 2004-05 season, averaging a 135. The show then returned to its old Monday 10/9c slot for midseason duty in 2007-08 (95) and 2008-09 (80).
  • During the 2007-08 writers' strike, NBC had a particularly respectable unscripted lineup with Deal or No Deal (108) and American Gladiators (128).
  • The Voice's first Monday run came in 2011-12 (204), when it paired with newbie Smash (96) starting in February.
See here for more explanations/disclaimers about Schedules Plus.


Spot said...

I am really loving this new feature of yours, it's awesome. I do however have a minor quirk with you not separating fall and spring numbers. I feel like spring numbers are so much lower than fall numbers that it's almost like comparing shows airing in different seasons (I wonder if Spring Ratings from one season aren't closer to the fall ratings from the subsequent season than they are from the fall from the same season). I feel this give a great advantage to stuff like reality shows that only air episodes in the fall and will have their average brought up unfairly. Likewise, shows that air only in the Spring like The Following, Idol or Spring editions of reality shows will always have a disadvantage. But that's a very minor quirk, I am loving what you are doing, thanks a lot. (By the way, speaking of features that I love from this website, will we get a new best case/worst case all the stuff premiering in winter?)

Back to on topic, it's amazing how well NBC is doing this season on Mondays. If they get their Wednesdays and Thursdays sorted out they will be in amazing shape next year. I still have concerns about overexposing the voice though.

Spot said...

Best Case/Worst Case (and The Question) are back January 2.

Spot said...

Quick question: Are the Voice's average in 2012-13 combining both the fall and spring cycles?

Spot said...

Just fall.

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