Tuesday, December 3, 2013
I've kinda stopped counting out-of-slot previews as "week one" in these things, but I will still note that Almost Human previewed after a Sunday NFL game with a 3.1 demo. (Its lead-in The OT averaged a 5.7.) It then pulled a 2.3 demo in its timeslot premiere, making it a slightly better option than previous occupant Bones. The True metric says the preview and premiere performances were almost exactly equal, though I think it probably underrated the preview rating somewhat. (It likely wasn't quite as compatible with the NFL as the nearly identical skews suggested.) The 2.3 demo came against slightly less-than-usual competition as NBC had a The Voice recap special.
Week two in the regular slot saw Almost Human drop 17% to a 1.9. That's either a typical drop for a week two or a bad drop for a week three; this preview situation is somewhat in between. The competition got a little tougher with The Voice fully original in the 8:00 hour, so I will say the 1.9 was only a little bit disappointing.
Man, it seems like these have been tougher than usual this year! Last week's 1.9 put the show at a low-end Bones level, but it's not like the show is dead if it does a little worse than Bones; Bones on Monday was doing better in 18-49 than almost everything else on the network. It probably has a few more ticks of cushion; I thought at the beginning of November that the show would settle at 1.5/1.6 and be on the bubble, and that still seems like a fairly likely outcome.
I might consider deferring here, but I almost feel like counting the preview/Monday premiere as one week is a bit of a cheat anyway. So I'm gonna say a reluctant Renew for two reasons; 1) the competitive situation will lighten up a bit going forward, with Dancing with the Stars out of the picture in December and The Voice gone in January, plus sprinkle in some CBS comedy repeats. And 2) the bar is low on Fox, as low as it's been (relatively speaking) since the pre-Idol years. There seems to be at least some chance The X Factor could get cancelled outright, which could free up a lot of fall real estate. These things don't really matter if there's a lot more rejection from here, but the show seems competent enough that I'll use them as a tiebreaker.
"First Two Weeks" is an ongoing experiment to see how often a new scripted show's fate can be predicted by the very earliest data. Here are the picks and lineups for every show this season.