Thursday, December 19, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 12/18/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The X Factor joined The Voice in taking an atypical week-to-week dip for its performance finale. That meant this X data point suffered perhaps the ultimate embarrassment: it was down more than 50% year-to-year! It'll have to go above a 1.5 tonight to avoid the same fate for the season finale. Simon Cowell seems convinced this thing is getting renewed; all I can say about that is it'd be fascinating to hear the execs have to justify that decision at press tours. X was also crushed by some special programming on other nets, including ABC comedy repeats and, for the second straight week, NBC's The Sing-Off (itself down from last Wednesday on a low-usage night).
  • The night's real winner was ABC, where The Goldbergs repeated pretty well in its first ever Wednesday tryout. (It was two ticks above last year's corresponding The Neighbors repeat.) And Barbara Walters' final 10 Most Fascinating People special was up a tick year-to-year even though it led out of an original Modern Family last year.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle (R) 1.4 31% -30% +8% 1.4
The Goldbergs (R) 1.2 33% -20% +20% 1.2
Modern Family (R) 1.8 37% -50% +0% 2.0
Barbara Walters' 10 Most Fascinating 2.2 31% +5% +43% +40% 2.4
ABC:-6%+25%
A Home for the Holidays 0.7 18% -13% -72% -18% 0.7
Criminal Minds (R) 1.3 26% -46% -4% 1.6
CSI (R) 1.1 21% -41% +0% 1.2
CBS:-54%-6%
The Sing-Off 1.6 37% -20%-0.4n/a 4/5 n/a -12% -12% 1.7
A Michael Buble Christmas 1.3 33% -7% -7% -33% 1.4
NBC:-11%-20%
The X Factor Wed 1.3 33% -7%-0.1n/a 12/13 -52% -9% -53% 1.4
Fox:-9%-53%
iHeartRadio Jingle Ball 0.5 48% n/a -38% +43% 0.6
CW:-38%+43%
Big5:-23%-18%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

3 comments:

Spot said...

Two of the four judges on the UK mothership have left, notably including the one effectively holding up the "nasty" role vacated by Cowell (though primarily by being analytical and very serious). There's allegedly an eight-figure offer from ITV for Cowell to return, and the consensus in the media here is that he will accept it and return to fix what is increasingly a fading format over here (though it's still a big hit, it's not the juggernaut it was).

Cowell will still be working on X-Factor next September, but it won't be for FOX. They can definitely manage without one (and, dare I say it, both) Cowell shows next season; this is a network that just put Bones on Friday! Even the comedies are deceptively valuable because, although they don't get many viewers, they get the right viewers (overwhelmingly young).

Spot said...

Fox would only abandon X-Factor and Idol if everything went gangbusters with their first year shows, if their pilots tested through the roof, and if their sophomores held up & didn't disappoint like the Class of 2011-2012 in their 2nd year (Once Upon a Time, Suburgatory, 2 Broke Girls, etc.). Since that didn't happen -- Dads' second season, for example, would be a reach and only could happen if it crashed Animation Domination -- Idol is safe even if it only pulls mid 2s. X-Factor, though, does feel unlikely to return in the States unless the scheduling changes drastically. Even then, I don't know how a show that's now struggling to pull MasterChef Junior numbers (!!) and is beat by comedy reruns is viable on a weekday. And since shorter-form programming is coming into vogue, X-Factor isn't as needed.

Spot said...

When some of those low-ratings shows repeats well, I always wonder if it's just the case of: It was original to the viewers, because nobody watched episode when it aired originally. But kidding aside, I think The Goldbergs are still in contention and this nice result helps its case. The way I see it:
Revenge to be renewed with bellow on-the-bubble ratings as it's only 22 episodes from syndication. With practically identical ratings Nashville to be cancelled, because it's 44 episodes from syndication. And if we read tea leaves, ABC rescheduled it: instead of original "split season" plan, now it's back in mid-January. A season finale in early to mid-April doesn't bode well.
Then there's obvious 5 drama renewals (baring Nathan Fillion call it quits). All 4 hours of reality and 20/20 to be renewed too, of course. So I see ABC next fall going again with 4 new dramas (or 3 new dramas + 1 new one-hour reality show if they don't like their drama pilots). That would mean unchanged 4 blocks of comedy for needed 19 hours.

If I'm right in above conclusions, then they'll need 8 comedies for fall, plus 2 or 3 bench players = 5 returning comedies + 5 or 6 pilots greenlighted. With Back in the Game already canceled, and sure to be canceled Trophy Wife (awful ratings), The Neighbors (even more awful ratings), Super Fun Night (ratings are awful given strong lead-in), it's a race for 2 spots between Suburgatory, The Goldbergs and Mixology. Obviously, Suburgatory has big advantage over rookies: at the season end it'll be 30 episodes from syndication, and there's no reason for it to have significantly lower A18-49 than rookies. Or lower ratings at all, actually. In all likelihood, it's race between The Goldbergs and Mixology for the last spot.

Why I think they'll renew exactly 5 comedies? To go with 4 returning comedies and 6 or 7 rookies simply seems too risky. And I cannot see them renewing 6 comedies (to renew all 3 of Suburgatory, The Goldbergs and Mixology), because The Goldbergs ratings are already not so great. I mean, if the other two shows would clearly beat Goldbergs, then why would they bother with renewing it? And if one or both other shows are roughly at The Goldbergs level, they surely won't renew 3 pretty low rated, at best at-the-bubble shows. While 2 of 3 they might, ABC needs to fill 19 hours somehow. It's been rough two cycles for them. If I count well, out of last 17 premieres, 13 shows are/soon-will-be cancelled after/during first season, and other 4 are: Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. already at around 2.0, Nashville and The Goldbergs at around 1.5, and The Neighbors bellow 1.0.

Of course, there's scenario with Mixology bombing and The Goldbergs ratings collapsing, while ABC brass not thinking much about their comedies development slate. Then I'd expect them to cut comedies back to three hours and schedule both 4 new dramas and 1 new reality. That unlikely scenario also opens small, really small, chance for Nashville to return. If all above happens + ABC doesn't feel they developed 5 hours of drama+reality enough good for fall launch + ABC Studios would find some reason to give discount to ABC network, then maybe...

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