Friday, September 17, 2010

First Two Weeks, Nikita


Sampling: Nikita's not-that-relevant numbers looked pretty good, with 3.570 million viewers and a 1.4 in adults 18-49. But it got only a 1.8 in "The CW Demo" of W18-34. That was pretty close to most of the CW pack, but it still finished ahead of just one of eight CW premieres. And that was with easily the network's largest lead-in, the 2.9 W18-34 of The Vampire Diaries.

Retention: In week two, it dropped 17% to a 1.5 in W18-34, and the drops were a little smaller in the other stats... 14% to a 1.2 A18-49, 11% to 3.195 million viewers. 17% is a standard drop, but the 1.5 may again leave it ahead of only one or two other Monday to Thursday shows on the net. Worth noting, though, that the lead-in retention % was almost identical, as The Vampire Diaries took a similar percentage drop in week two.

Prognosis: I didn't expect this, and I doubt many others did, but Nikita seems to be in the worse shape of the Cdub's two newbies through two weeks. Both took pretty standard percentage drops, but Hellcats is still a couple ticks ahead. This figures to be one of those shows that'll test the network's steadfast commitment to the W18-34 demo, as it may well be a top performer on the net in male demos. It's another close call (I swear a lot of these will be easier!), but since I think Hellcats is slightly ahead right now, and W18-34 juggernaut Grey's Anatomy hasn't even premiered yet, I'll lean ever so slightly toward no for Nikita. I'm mostly doing that to avoid projecting second seasons for 2 out of 2. But at this very early juncture, I'd say it's more likely both get renewed than both get cancelled, just because I really doubt this problem-laden net is gonna be able to unload both. Stay tuned.

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