Thursday, September 30, 2010

First Two Weeks, Detroit 1-8-7


Sampling: Detroit 1-8-7 didn't start off particularly well, managing a 2.3 demo out of a Dancing with the Stars lead-in that pulled a 4.4 at 9:00. That's barely over half retention, but even putting that figure aside a 2.3 is not a particularly promising start. The only good news for Detroit was probably the massive failures of two other new ABC dramas later in premiere week, the 1.5 from The Whole Truth and the 1.6 from My Generation.

Retention: But as seems to be the case often this season, week 2 looked better. With Dancing dropping off to a 3.8 this Tuesday, Detroit 1-8-7 dropped just 9% to a 2.1, meaning an improved retention. People noted last week that Detroit's premiere finished three ticks behind that of failed The Forgotten last year, but this week it had already gone ahead of the corresponding episode of The Forgotten. (Notably, though, Dancing with the Stars was much stronger this year than last.)

Prognosis: For the third time in two years, we have a show that premiered with a 2.3 and dropped to a 2.1 (following NBC's Mercy of last year and Chase of this year)! This is a different network, and one that has a lot more viable scripted dramas in play. And they did get a very strong premiere out of No Ordinary Family on Tuesday, meaning Detroit doesn't seem to be able to lean on the least-horrible-new-drama-on-ABC defense anymore. But I think it'll end up with a fate similar to that of Mercy and what I'm predicting for Chase. I think based on the reasonable week 2 drop, the other two obvious failed dramas, and the somewhat positive buzz around the show, they're not gonna let this one go with just the initial order. That said, with what we have right now, I don't think it will make it into a season 2. It might be a close one down the stretch.

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