Wednesday, September 29, 2010

First Two Weeks, The Event


Sampling: The Event's 3.6 demo was easily NBC's best drama premiere since premiere Wednesday in 2007. There are people calling this a disappointment, but I disagree because the net has had so much trouble premiering any drama whatsoever. Southland, long-groomed as the spirtual successor to ER, managed just a 3.2. And their two fall dramas of last year got just a 2.3 and a 2.2! The Event pulled this off without any real lead-in support; Chuck returned to a 2.0 demo at 8/7c.

Retention: But if The Event ultimately flops, we won't be able to say there was no way to see it coming in the first two weeks as with Flashforward last year. The show's 19% drop is already bad tidings. However, at least for now, at a 2.9 demo it remains easily the all-star of NBC Monday night.

Prognosis: The big start and the big drop is probably the toughest combination to predict. 19% isn't a catastrophic percentage drop, but it isn't a good one either, and the question of course is where it settles. If it settles at the 2.9, it's a lock to come back, and I think even in the low 2's it'd be likely to get another year. Below that (Flashforward territory) it becomes pretty tough. I'm gonna say at this point that it gets a season 2, but I don't feel very confident. Considering the relatively soft start from the other two new NBC dramas thus far (and pretty much all other NBC dramas of the last three years), the show would have to drop a long way down without either of those shows dropping at all to be in their vicinity. "The system" will probably call it borderline when that shows up on Friday.

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