Wednesday, September 29, 2010

First Two Weeks, Chase


Sampling: NBC's Chase debuted with a very mediocre 2.3 demo, holding just under 65% of its lead-in, the impressive 3.6 start of The Event at 9:00. The 2.3 is about on par with what NBC's dramas of last fall started with, along with Wednesday show Undercovers from this season.

Retention: Things got a little more optimistic for Chase in week two, though, as its respectable 9% drop left it at a 2.1 demo and improved its retention figures out of big-dropping The Event (now at 72%). The show remains comfortably behind its two crime drama competitors in the 10:00 hour, though.

Prognosis: The two-week track for Chase is identical to that of last fall's Mercy, which also started at a 2.3 and dropped to a 2.1. (Although notably in that show's case, it lost Dancing with the Stars as competition in week 2.) Mercy ended up getting a full season and then going out after that, with the numbers getting terribly ugly toward the end, and I think it's reasonable to expect a similar kind of outcome from this show, which I could see holding up around a 2.0 for awhile. I'm not sure there's anything distinctive enough in this program for it to make real inroads against the other crime dramas, though. So I'll say it's one season and done for this show, though I wouldn't be too surprised if that one season ended up a little longer than the initial 13.

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