Monday, July 28, 2014

Schedules Plus Update, ABC (2013-14)


Schedules Plus looks at the evolution of network schedules and timeslots using fairer numbers adjusted for historical decline. These update posts will link back to the now updated full posts for each day, and the update posts have exclusive comparisons vs. last year's schedule (in parenthesses) and vs. the full 11-year historical average (in the "VsAvg" row).

Many more disclaimers can be seen on the individual pages, but the most basic one to keep in mind is that the listed schedules are fall lineups, even when midseason replacements may have done much better. (But I try to mention those midseason replacements that did better.)

More 2013-14 Schedules Plus updates: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW



Monday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 Dancing with the StarsCastle 104
107 107 97
2013-14 Dancing with the StarsCastle 111
(+7%)
115 (+7%) 115 (+7%) 103 (+6%)

Avg 116 135 114 121
VsAvg -1% -15% -10% -9%
Rank 6/11 9/11 6/11 9/11

Though it was a positive 2013-14 season for the Dancing with the Stars and Castle lineup, it still trails most of ABC's strong lineups on the night historically. The average only beat last season and 2006-07 (the one season between ABC's loss of Monday Night Football and its introduction of Dancing with the Stars). Both The Bachelor (136) and the spring DWTS (124) did better than the fall number listed for DWTS.



Tuesday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 Dancing with the Stars Happy Endings Apartment 23Private Practice 76
106 63 5563
59
2013-14 Agents of SHIELD The Goldbergs Trophy WifeLucky 7 85
(+12%)
127 (+20%) 89 (+42%) 60 (+8%)53 (-16%)
74 (+26%)

Avg 86 109 70 88
VsAvg +47% -32% -24% -4%
Rank 2/11 10/11 11/11 6/11

Tuesday was another night improved year-to-year but behind the historical average. Agents of SHIELD was one of ABC's best historical players in the oft-troubled 8/7c hour, but things quickly soured from there. The Goldbergs and Trophy Wife both improved on the particularly anemic comedies from last season, but they trailed everything else (the majority of which were DWTS results shows). And Tuesday 10/9c, already one of ABC's worst hours, hit new depths with two-and-through Lucky 7 (and subsequent replacements like Mind Games (41) and Killer Women (38) did even worse).



Wednesday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 The Middle The Neighbors Modern Family SuburgatoryNashville 113
108 88 201 10189
98 151
2013-14 The Middle Back in the Game Modern Family Super Fun NightNashville 107
(-5%)
109 (+1%) 93 (+6%) 188 (-6%) 94 (-7%)78 (-12%)
101 (+3%) 141 (-6%)

Avg 98 142 80 107
VsAvg +3% -1% -2% +0%
Rank 4/11 6/11 7/11 6/11

Wednesday continued to regress from the beloved 2011-12 lineup that included Suburgatory at 8:30, Happy Endings at 9:30 and Revenge at 10/9c. It was very close to the historical average in all three hours. The gains from Back in the Game are purely a function of total episodes aired; it got no extension. Through 13 episodes of its full season, The Neighbors was averaging a 97 in 2012-13.



Thursday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 Last Resort Grey's AnatomyScandal 110
65 147 119
2013-14 Once Upon a Time in Wonderland Grey's AnatomyScandal 119
(+8%)
52 (-20%) 143 (-3%) 162 (+36%)

Avg 66 145 98 103
VsAvg -21% -1% +65% +16%
Rank 9/11 8/11 1/11 5/11

The Scandal explosion made this another positive night for ABC, and in fact the network's biggest Thursday since 2009-10 when Grey's was 30 points bigger. Scandal was over 40 points ahead of the next-biggest fall 10/9c occupant. However, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland was ABC's weakest fall option since the pre-Grey's years... and that's really saying something, given the immense troubles the network has had there. (Though it surely would've beaten 2010-11's My Generation (53) if that series hadn't been pulled so quickly.)



Friday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 Last Man Standing Malibu Country Shark Tank20/20 75
71 668869
69
2013-14 Last Man Standing The Neighbors Shark Tank20/20 81
(+7%)
71 (-0%) 51 (-23%)103 (+17%)78 (+13%)
61 (-11%)

Avg 53 63 65 60
VsAvg +15% +63% +19% +33%
Rank 3/11 1/11 1/11 1/11

Despite a major stumble at 8:30, where The Neighbors wasn't nearly as strong as multi-cam option Malibu Country, ABC still had an absolutely sensational Friday on the whole, with easily its strongest-yet ratings in both of the last two hours. That included a 9/8c hour where Shark Tank had the best numbers anyone has had on Friday. (And the 8/7c hour trailed only last season and the first available year from the original TGIF in 2003-04.)



Sunday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 Once Upon a Time Revenge666 Park Ave 101
129 101 72
2013-14 Once Upon a Time RevengeBetrayal 82
(-19%)
116 (-10%) 82 (-19%) 47 (-34%)

Avg 118 161 107 129
VsAvg -2% -49% -56% -36%
Rank 7/11 11/11 11/11 10/11

Once home to the strongest three-hour lineup on TV, ABC Sunday absolutely plunged in fall 2013, nearing the historical low from 2003-04 (the last season before Desperate Housewives). This was the main reason why the overall picture didn't improve that much for a network that improved year-to-year on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The picture brightened as Once held up better in the spring and especially with the introduction of Resurrection (133), which will probably help stop the erosion in next fall's comparison even if it tanks big-time.

14 comments:

Spot said...

One thing to keep in mind for Wednesdays is that The Neighbors had its debut in the post-Modern family slot while Back in the Game did not have that luxury. Stripping Neighbors' debut number out and looking just at episodes 2-12, or subbing in the 2012-2013 League Average of 2.11 for episode 1, brings it closer to BitG's Plus score.

Comparing this to ABC's announced 2014-2015 schedule helps show what hours are probably voted Most Likely To Improve: Tuesdays at 10:00 by sheer virtue of having a sturdier and format-compatible lead-in, Thursdays at 8:00 just because I can't picture Grey's Anatomy going from Hit to Flop, and Sundays at 10:00. Meanwhile it's difficult to picture Nashville even keeping its Marginal label.

And speaking of labels, anyone else think we should just call any non-Friday Big 4 show with a sub-50 Plus score a Megabomb? Yes it doesn't change anything, but I feel like "flop" understates how bad the show is ratings-wise.

Spot said...

Thanks. I also noticed Back in the Game only aired 10 episodes, so I guess the best comparison would be with episodes 2-11 of The Neighbors. That number was 92.

Spot said...

One of the most striking things for me out of this is how much Friday is on the same level as Tuesday and Sunday. It's a major wow.

Elsewhere, the times in which I see potential for improvement:
- Tuesdays at 9, for sure, at least the second half-hour
- Tuesdays at 10, because even if Forever/The Whispers (which I will continue to assume it's going there because it's that obvious) bomb, I don't think they will bomb as hard as last year's trio because 1) As much as they have flop potential it's not as obvious as last year's trio and 2) They will have Shield and not Trophy WIife as a lead-in
- Wednesdays at 8, because I think The Goldbergs will certainly improve on its half-hour and I see The Middle holding up well again
- Wednesdays at 9, because I don't think Modern Family will fall as badly again surrounded by more compatible pieces of programming and perhaps now benefiting from that syndication exposure, and because even if I am not sold on Black-ish, I think it will be hard to do much worse than Mixology and Fun Night
- Thursdays at 8, because let's be real, GA will not go below 1.0
- Thursdays at 9, because even if Scandal falls, it should still be able to beat or tie last year's GA in raw numbers
- Fridays at 8, because I see LMS being slightly up and Cristella not doing worse than The Neighbors (I am not sold on it, but I don't think it will do worse than TN did)
- Fridays at 9: Maybe Shark Tank has peaked in raw numbers but I don't see it having the necessary decline to fall in Plus
- Fridays at 10: Because it's all about Shark Tank, so if Shark Tank doesn't fall in plus, this one shouldn't either
- Sundays at 8, because I see OUAT continuing to hold up well and the hype for Frozen seems to be big
- Sundays at 10 because Revenge will certainly avoid Betrayal numbers

On the other hand, down slots:
- Mondays at 10: I see Castle taking a bit of a hit against LA, even if The Blacklist vanishing early on should help, and because the second half of the season had a bad trend
- Tuesday at 8: because even if the comedies don't bomb they won't do as well as Shield did especially in the opening weeks
- Wednesdays at 10: because there is nowhere for Nashville to go but down, even if I think that if Blackish holds well it has a chance of not being as awful as some are saying
- Thursdays at 10: even if Murder works, I don't see another Scandal happening for ABC
- Sundays at 9: Sure, Resurrection should improve on Revenge's fall numbers, but I don't think it's hard to imagine it going to 1.6 or so by November sweeps and that's basically what Revenge was pulling last year. So it would be ahead in Plus but not by much. So it would come down to how American Crime does compared to Resurrection later on and I don't see it doing better than Ressurection did last year (then again, I never though Resurrection would do as well as it did).

Hours I don't know where they will go:
- Mondays at 8 and 9: will DWTS continue to steady the ship? I think the voice has peaked so there could be an opportunity there. FOX won't be an issue due to compatibility so it probably comes down to how CBS fares on the night.

Spot said...

I think there are other hours in which the direction is fairly obvious like Wednesdays at 8, Thursdays at 10 and Tuesdays at 8. I made a post above with my predictions for each hour and frankly there are only a few I am in doubt, I think most of them are not hard to predict, even if that's mostly due to the flopicity level of some hours (I like the mega bomb suggestion).


In regards to Nashville, one factor I typically don't see people giving it credit for is the lead-in. Nashville had to deal all year long with not only low rated but also fairly incompatible lead-ins where the likes of Chicago PD and CSI had the most perfect, flow-friendly lead-ins. In addition, I am sure that Fun Night and Mixology were as much guinea pigs as The Millers was, which means that the ratings we see for the half-hours is probably very inflated by the opening 10 minutes or so and is not a proper indicator of the lead-in that Nashville effectively got. I am not saying that Nashville will have a good season or anything and I definitely think the show will have a hard time carrying itself to its forth season, but if Black-ish works (and I am even less sold on that), then Nashville could hold up much better than we are all predicting.

Spot said...

Doing the same as omabin.


Hours that will definitely improve:
- Tuesdays at 9: Shield will be a solid player on year two, even if it goes down 30% it will still beat the anemic players.
- Wednesdays at 8: Middle is dropping less than the league average and Goldbergs looks like a great pairing.
- Thursdays at 8: Grey's will be ABC best performer in the hour since Ugly Betty.
- Thursdays at 9: Scandal will at least match Grey's even with a down year.
- Sundays at 10: despite its ratings slump, Revenge needs to fall a lot to match Betrayal
Hour very likely to improve:
- Fridays 9-11: Shark Tank will probably reach its peak this season.
Toss-up:
- Mondays 8-10: it all depends on DWTS holding against TBBT, The Voice and Gothan, those are now the 2 biggest hours on TV but after a hufe decline, it has been steady.
- Tuesdays at 10: can't get worse, can it?
- Wednesdays at 9: will Modern Family get the syndication boost? Is Black-ish a potential good performer?
- Fridays at 8: it's all about LMS drop and Cristela performance, Cristela will either be a good pairing or DOA given its reception.
- Sundays at 9: Resurrection trend (losing half of the audience on 7 weeks) is pointing towards a fall return that will be down from the season finale, which puts it close to Revenge's ratings.
Down hours:
- Mondays at 10: Castle was flat during fall but dropped in the spring, Blacklsit is still there until november and with NCIS:LA, there will be stronger (and procedural) competiton on CBS, ABC will probably end on 3rd place.
- Tuedays at 8: the comedies won

Spot said...

Are you doing this in Plus terms or raw numbers terms? I got the feeling you were doing it with raw numbers, while I was doing it with Plus which would justify the differences.

I am not sure that OUAT will really be down in Plus to be honest. It depends a bit on how they execute the Frozen thing and with what they come up for the second half but the second half hold was very encouraging and it should have the same split season treatment this year if ABC has brains.The Spring season was practically even in raw numbers after all excluding Easter Sunday.

Other than that I pretty much with your assessment, even though I wouldn't be surprised if Shark Tank had peaked in raw numbers, even if that would still entail a few seasons of Plus growth ahead.

Spot said...

I mixed both even though I know it's about plus numbers.


Mostly because I don't know the league average drop, I assumed it will be 10%, on Shark Tank's example I used plus numbers, I expect a slightly drop from it on raw numbers, but probably around 5% which would mean a improvement on plus.

Spot said...

I do agree on OUAT then, I just chose to be more optimistic than you did but yeah, I see it taking around a league average drop, but I am going with a slightly below one judging by the spring trend.

Spot said...

I disagree with Ressurection premiering down from the finale. I think its trajectory is similar to Shield's fall one. Premiered to a 4.7 and the fall finale was a 2.1. Ouch! But spring premiered to a 2.2 and finaled at a 2.1.
Anyways, even if that isn't a great comparison, I think it should avoid a Following or Dome right out of the gate by returning only 4 months later. It will be going from airing in the three lowest rated months of the season to the highest. I'm not ruling out a premiere higher than finale, then big drop, but I do think it'll get at least a 2.2
Even Revenge which went a 3.2 to a 1.7 in that slot returned way up from the finale

Spot said...

Spot,
Do you have any data on partial league averages. Like, I'm sure that Lucky 7 did worse than a 53 with the league average of the first two weeks of the season. Also, if that is possible, how to Sleepy Hollow and Resurrection compare? Seeing as Sleepy got to air all in the best times of the year and Resurrection was all post DST

Spot said...

I agree with this, I think it's an issue of the league average thing, I believe I've commented on it before.

I am not sure how to proceed with said breakdown but it seems clear that different periods of the year should have different averages (summer, winter, fall and spring are the most obvious breakdowns I think). A moving average would solve this to some extent but it's probably too complicated. Probably the best proxy would be to calculate Plus using True numbers instead of Raw numbers since those already account for the time of the year. It still wouldn't address it completely but it would be better I think.

Spot said...

If I'm doing it correctly, then Lucky 7's Plus score would be a 42 (its 1.00 average into the-then LeAv of 2.39). As for Sleepy Hollow it would be 132 (2.61 into 1.97) and Resurrection would stay the same at 133 (2.51 into 1.89).

Spot said...

I think the problem with that approach is that you still don't benefit Resurrection from airing in the lowest viewed part of the season (the denominator still contains numbers from the entire year). I tried it with moving averages of a month (roughly 15 days before and roughly 15 days afterwards) and this is what I get:
1. Big Bang Theory: 287
2. America's Got Talent: 219
3. The Voice: 208
4. Modern Family: 200
5. How I Met Your Mother: 187
6. Big Brother: 182
7. Scandal: 174
8. Under the Dome: 171
9. The Blacklist: 162
10. NCIS: 159
11. Resurrection: 154
12. Grey's Anatomy: 154
13. American Idol: 153
14. The Millers: 151
15. Masterchef: 150
16. America Ninja Warrior: 143
17. 2 Broke Girls: 142
18. Survivor: 141
19. Criminal Minds: 139
20. NCIS Los Angeles: 138
21. Family Guy: 137
22. The Bachelor: 137
23. The Bachelorette: 136
24. Marvel's Agents of Shield: 135
25. 24: 135
26. Sleepy Hollow: 135

So Sleepy Hollow looks considerably worse than Resurrection using this metric.

This being said, I am convinced that my formula is now benefiting spring shows too much since it is including in its calculation summer ratings, which obviously bring this down. By the way, I find surprising how well summer staples look when put on this metric.

Spot said...

I made a go at moving averages considering 30 days (15 before and 15 after, roughly), excluding for the first two weeks of the season in which the average is always the same and always equal to said two hours. I've used Spot's definition of excluding Sports and repeats.


The top 30 results follow:
1. Big Bang Theory: 287
2. America's Got Talent: 219
3. The Voice: 208
4. Modern Family: 200
5. How I Met Your Mother: 187
6. Big Brother: 182
7. Scandal: 174
8. Under the Dome: 171 (*missing last two weeks data)

9. The Blacklist: 162
10. NCIS: 159
11 Resurrection: 154
12. Grey's Anatomy: 154
13. American Idol: 153
14. The Millers: 151
15. Masterchef: 150 (*missing last two weeks data)
16. America Ninja Warrior: 143
17. 2 Broke Girls: 142
18. Survivor: 141
19. Criminal Minds: 139
20. NCIS Los Angeles: 138
21. Family Guy: 137
22. The Bachelor: 137
23. The Bachelorette: 136
24. Marvel's Agents of Shield: 135
25. 24: 135
26. Sleepy Hollow: 135
27. Two and a Half Men: 130
28. Dancing with the Stars: 129
29. Once Upon a Time: 129
30. The Simpsons: 129


Sleepy Hollow looks much worse than Resurrection does here which I do think is kind of "fair" considering the different times of the year both aired. It is however necessary to bear in mind that:
1) Sleepy Hollow had 5 extra episodes to fall (13 episodes vs. 8 episodes)
2) The Sleepy Hollow premiered aired before the start of the regular season so it is not included here. Being the highest rated point out of 13, that would likely make a difference.

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