Wednesday, July 2, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Monday 6/23/14 & 6/30/14

  • In yet another less-than-encouraging sign for the second season of the "limited series," Under the Dome (2.1) came back at over a third behind last summer's breakthrough 3.3 premiere. Dome only avoided a new series low because the show had a 2.1 for an episode with an irregular start time late in season one. This is pretty close to the kind of drop that happened with early season two of The Following; and though Dome will hope to improve on that trend once the inflated series premiere comparison is behind it, The Following's trend got even worse in subsequent episodes. But, for perspective: a 2.1 still makes it one of the very biggest shows of the summer, and still miles ahead of the dramas CBS put in this slot in-season. Season one was such a revelation that the show still has much room to fall before we stop talking about it as a ratings success.
  • It hasn't been too exciting on the other networks over the last couple Mondays. On Fox, 24: Live Another Day (1.4 on 6/23, 1.4 on 6/30) hasn't rallied from the huge drop it took when we last checked in on 6/16. However, MasterChef (1.7 on 6/23, 1.9 on 6/30) scored a season high. And ABC's The Bachelorette (1.5 on 6/23, 1.6 on 6/30) took a dip on 6/23 and bounced back a touch last night.


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Bachelorette 1.5 31% -12%-0.2n/a 5/6 -25% -12% -24% 1.9
Mistresses 1.0 35% +0%+0.0-0.2 2/4 -9% +0% -9% 1.2
2 Broke Girls (R) 1.0 27% -9% -17% 1.3
Mom (R) 1.0 27% -17% -23% 1.3
Mike and Molly (R) 1.1 26% -15% -42% 1.4
Two and a Half Men (R) 1.0 27% -17% -50% 1.3
Under the Dome (R) 0.8 23% +0% -76% 1.1
Last Comic Standing (R) 1.1 40% +22% -57% 1.4
American Ninja Warrior 1.7 42% +6%+0.1+0.2 2/5 n/a +6% -51% 2.1
MasterChef 1.7 43% -6%-0.1n/a 3/5 -28% -6% +143% 2.2
24: Live Another Day 1.4 31% +0%+0.0-0.1 7/8 n/a -3% +155% 1.7
Whose Line Is It Anyway? 0.6 47% +20%+0.1n/a 1/14 n/a +20% +50% 0.8
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.5 41% -17% +150% 0.6
Beauty and the Beast 0.3 51% +0%+0.0-0.1 2/20 n/a +20% +200% 0.4
Teen Wolf 0.90 53% n/an/a
1/1 -6%

Major Crimes 0.78 20% +6%+0.04
2/3 -7%

Switched at Birth 0.66 60% +54%+0.23
1/2 -4%

The Fosters 0.58 51% +16%+0.08
1/2 -7%

Longmire 0.57 20% +7%+0.04
3/4 -14%

Murder in the First 0.40 19% -13%-0.06
3/3 n/a


A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Bachelorette 1.6 31% +7%+0.1n/a 4/7 -11% +7% -9% 2.0
Mistresses 1.1 34% +10%+0.1+0.1 2/5 +0% +16% -4% 1.2
2 Broke Girls (R) 1.1 30% +10% -8% 1.5
Mom (R) 1.0 29% +0% -9% 1.5
The Big Bang Theory (R) 1.7 34% +55% +42% 2.1
The Big Bang Theory (R) 1.8 33% +80% +13% 2.1
Under the Dome 2.1 28% n/an/an/a 1/1 -36% +163% -26% 2.3
Harry Potter: The Making of Diagon Alley 0.7 30% n/a -36% -53% 1.0
American Ninja Warrior (R) 1.4 40% -20% -7% 1.8
MasterChef 1.9 44% +12%+0.2n/a 1/6 n/a +12% +171% 2.6
24: Live Another Day 1.4 31% +0%+0.0+0.2 7/9 n/a +0% +180% 1.7
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.5 39% -17% +67% 0.7
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.5 37% +0% +67% 0.7
Beauty and the Beast 0.3 45% +0%+0.0+0.0 2/21 n/a +20% +50% 0.4

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.


Spot said...

Under The Following.

Like @James "One" Shade I'm now curious about Sleepy Hollow's performance, the final episodes trend does not bode well anyway but season 2 premiere will tell if people can't stick to limited order shows on network TV or if creative slumps are more important.

Dome and The Following are not the first examples, there are OUAT, Revenge (but those two were also affected by the poor scheduling job by ABC), Heroes (reached a series high for its season 2 premiere then collapsed), not to mention the examples of expectations vs reallity (V, Flashforward, The Event and SHIELD to a lesser extent).

Spot said...

I expected Dome to do around 0.5 higher so I was clearly off here. Still, and to get a bit of perspective, this is still probably going to be the biggest scripted show of the summer unless Extant beats it or it has a huge meltdown and it will still be one of the biggest shows of the summer, scripted or unscripted. On another hand, it is also the highest rated CBS 10pm occupant since... Under the Dome Season 1. I am curious about its ratings trend.

In regards to limited series, I think ABC is the one that has mastered the model with OUAT and Scandal this year. They basically had two seasons of the show in the span of 9 months, which is the correct way to go IMO. They have the best of both worlds: 1) Lower time between "seasons", so you have the advantage of a normal season AND 2) The feel of two different seasons (Especially true in OUAT's case), so you still have the limited-series advantage thing. As a bonus, you still reach syndication in normal time.

Spot said...

Under The Dome has best rating for CBS in slot since September 16, 2013. That's less an accomplishment, but more an epic failure in the CBS drama department. Even NBC had at least one scripted telecast with a 2.2 this year

Spot said...

I agree about these shows not necessarily being a fair test, though I'm not too sure Sleepy Hollow will be any fairer; there may have been more critical favor, but the ratings trajectory within season one was about the same.

The REAL test would be how a show with much more momentum does with an 8-9 month hiatus. Most of the big recent serialized shows (Housewives, Lost, Glee, Heroes) peak somewhere in the late season 1-early season 2 area, and none of these shows were close to fitting that mold. I still think Following/Dome would've come back closer to the finale numbers if they had a typical 4-month hiatus, but we can't know for sure because the momentum within s1 was not favorable.

Spot said...

All episodes of the Blacklist, a few Chicago Fires, SVU premiere and Chicago PD crossover, Sound of Music Live.

Spot said...

You can also say that it has the highest rating there since February 2013 excluding Dome's run itself there.

I think the only way Dome's ratings can be regarded as bad is if they are compared with itself last year but that was, in itself, an insanely high-rated season, so it's a deflated comparison anyway. Had this been any series premiere, we would be up calling it a hit. I know expectations are quite different but NBC just renewed a low 1s Night Shift leading out of a 3.0 Got Talent. I am certain CBS can live with a low 2s/ high 1s Dome leading-out of repeats! They would probably be able to live with that in the regular season, so they certainly can live with that in summer!

Spot said...

Speaking of the Nigh Shift, I was surprised NBC actually renewed that. They have Ninja Warrior, AGT Talent, AGT Talent Wednesdays, Last Comic Standing, AGT (R), sometimes LCS (R), and sometimes Hollywood Game Night all atleast doing as well for them. It's not a foreign import or coproduction. Didn't even seem to have exceptional sub demos. Maybe I'm just a retentionista, but I feel NBC didn't have to renew it just because it didn't bomb as much as Camp did

Spot said...

Ouch! Series low for Under the Dome!

Spot said...

the Dome was adjusted down to 2.1 at the end.
It seems that the question of yesterday was one of the most missed ever :)

Spot said...

Next season will be more brutal than last for the networks -- judging by this Summer's numbers, the discussion, and the fact that I don't think I'll like any new show in this Fall and if I did there's a good chance they will cancel it.

Spot said...

Girl Meets World's pilot definitely felt like Boy's earlier, junior-high/high school seasons. And with a lot of former cast members coming back on a regular/recurring basis, I think the nostalgia factor will remain high. If it holds, maybe ABC should poach this show if Cristela disappoints. :-)

Spot said...

ABC should have poached it from the beginning! A Last Man Standing, Girl Meets World combo would have been great for their fridays. If it can self start to around LMS numbers on Disney in the sunmer, it could have done tons more on ABC in the fall. I'm probably over thinking this, but if ABC had had Girl Meets World they probably could have returned to full blown TGIF. Perhaps I'm over thinking it

Spot said...

If you want over thinking, read this...

I agree with the unstated assumption that a LMS/GMW combo could work because of the multi-cam retro feel they share. But Girl Meets World has to prove that its debut rating is sustainable. If it takes the same trajectory as The CW's 90210 reboot, then it's no better than The Neighbors.

As for a full-blown TGIF, that only would have worked this past season if ABC renewed more of its family comedies from 2012-2013 while figuring out what to do with Shark Tank since it only seems to help a show like 20/20. The best idea I would have had is:

8:00 - Last Man Standing
8:30 - Malibu Country
9:00 - Girl Meets World
9:30 - How to Live With Your Parents (for the Rest of the Your Life)
10:00 - Shark Tank

It mixes single- and multi-cam with How to Live, so I would have retooled the show to make it multi-cam if possible. And Shark Tank continues to lead into a news program but instead it's local news for ABC O&Os and affiliates.

Spot said...

I'll admit I hadn't yet considered that component. You would certainly want to see positive momentum in the finale a la The Walking Dead if you were hoping on a season to season boost. And Sleepy Hollow didn't necessarily have that, despite the acclaim.

Spot said...

While I don't think they absolutely needed it, I think it was a good call.

To get a bit of perspective, the only dramas this year they had doing better than it is doing were The Blacklist and the Dick-Wolf trio. While I wouldn't overplay the summer-factor because it is airing out of a huge lead-in (which in my mind sort of cancels out), it's still doing good for them if it manages to be their number 5 drama. Sure, we all feel that the NBC from today can do better, but that's an impression created by the Wolf-trio and the blacklist imo. Remember crisis, believe, revolution, parenthood, ironside, just to stick with in-season dramas.

Another advantage is that it appears to be very on-brand with a certain type of dramas NBC is developing (the Chicago twins), so it's likely a good promotional platform for them during summer.

It's also probably cheap enough considering it comes from Sony who is known to get good deals when they want to get a show going.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, it has plenty of spackle potential. They can easily stick with it as a summer show and know it will be doing well enough for them or they can bring it in later in the season if they need it to plug a hole. That's a good flexibility to have.

In regards to your argument that they already have enough summer stuff, I would add that despite all that, they still have 3 hours of Sundays unprogrammed for the entire summer, as well as 3 hours of Wednesdays unprogrammed for the entire June.

Spot said...

Well The Blacklist, Chicago Fire, Chicago PD, SVU, and Grimm are a big chunk of their dramas. Only Parenthood and Hannibal are worse rated. The former is getting a shortened final season and the latter has special financials behind it. But if it means we don't get a Chicago M.D., I'll be fine. In fact I'd rather get a Chicago Postal instead

Spot said...

True but the thing is that those dramas only account for a small fraction of the total time that NBC has to program. You've mentioned 5 dramas. For comparison's sake, ABC has 11 dramas going (Castle, Shield, Nashville, Grey's, Scandal, OUAT, Revenge, Resurrection, Motive, Rookie Blue, Mistresses) and CBS has another 11 (NCIS, NCIS LA, POI, Criminal Minds, CSI, Elementary, H50, Blue Bloods, The Good Wife, The Mentalist, Under the Dome).

NBC programs the same number of hours that they do yet they have 7 dramas counting Hannibal and Parenthood. Sure that leaves them room to want more, and my point was that the likes of Crisis, Believe et all proves it's not as easy as their core dramas make it look like. Sure, they also have more reality with the voice and got talent than the others (especially CBS),but they also have fewer comedy so it sort of cancels out and my point still stands. If they find a drama they can work with, they should take it.

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