Wednesday, July 9, 2014

The Question, Wednesday 7/9/14: Will Extant Ratings Blast Off?


CBS' big event premiere of the summer has arrived: the science fiction drama Extant, starring Halle Berry as an astronaut who returns to Earth. The comparisons with last season's huge Under the Dome premiere (3.3 last summer) are inevitable, but there are a lot of differences with this show. It has a Big Brother lead-in; that will bring good ratings, but Extant is probably not much more compatible with Big Brother than CBS' other drama efforts. The show brings a far bigger star to the table than Under the Dome did, but though CBS' promotion has been extensive (and the reviews relatively positive), this show does not have quite as elegant a concept as did Under the Dome. Some of the promotion has seemed a bit confusing to me. So I see this premiere rating hinging to some degree on Halle Berry's ability to draw. I think that will happen to a pretty solid extent, but not on an eye-popping Under the Dome-esque level.

Over/Under: 2.05.

18 comments:

Spot said...

Over with 2.4.

Spot said...

Under by at least a half-point. How is a drama meant to even retain BB? And crossing this line would require it having to *build* on it. Before seeing the line I was thinking it'd be 1.35.

Spot said...

Maybe my expectations are set too high by seeing what UTD managed last year. And despite what's happened to that this year, I'll be disappointed if Extant can't start off above the line. Over

Spot said...

Your potential line is even lower than I thought it was going to be. I pegged it a 1.55.

Spot said...

Under.


CBS' drama estate is always rejected by Big Brother fans. Dome's slump also contributes to my pessimism.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over (2.7)

Spot said...

Slightly over. Gravity shows there is lots of interest in space drama and Halle Berry was just in the 3rd highest domestic box office hit of the year (even if it wasn't a huge part)

Spot said...

I'm a little surprised that NBC didn't throw another special America's Got Talent at this to blunt the competition.

Like I said below, I thought this line would be way lower. Just because there's a decent-sized reality show lead-in doesn't mean the audience sticks around (Big Brother and Unforgettable & Reckless; The Bachelor and Body of Proof; American Idol and Rake, Touch, The Finder, Human Target...).

But sci-fi shows tend to have an audience of their own.
But this show is very off-brand for CBS.
But Halle Barry is a pretty big name.
But this Line assumes that it'll grow from Big Brother.
But CBS has been pushing this harder than Under the Dome.
But Under the Dome debuted with a tie to its series low.
But there's almost no competition tonight.

I was fully prepared to say over to my Line, but can I with yours? Let's ask this quarter on my desk.

*flip*

Apparently I can.

Over.

Spot said...

Over.
This seems buzzy, so I think lead-in incompatibility doesn't really matter. Around 2.5.

Spot said...

Over. FIRST Post

Spot said...

This would be an easier Question if we could be sure that Halle Berry actually has any draw. When was the last time she headlined a big movie, though? And I mean really headlined, rather than being part of an ensemble. I'm also not convinced that "alien impregnation" is really a draw, insofar as sci-fi concepts go. And yeah, those ads have just been schizophrenic. I think, I think, just maybe, this is going to scare off more people than Berry will draw.

Under.

(and now we know what it looks like when I barf my mental debates on the page)

Spot said...

Over, 2.3

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

It's a decent premiere episode and while I've not been running out to see Halle Berry at the cinema in recent years, her helming a quality TV series gives it some flavor. Same thing could've been said of Kevin Costner and his film career two years ago heading into Hatfields and McCoys and look how that turned out.

Tons of promotion for this project too. It is a show ripe for a popular time-shifted audience but I'm predicting the Over anyway.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

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