Thursday, July 10, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 7/9/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • CBS' second summer event drama didn't start off nearly as well as the first. Of course, Under the Dome's 3.3 from last year probably set an unrealistic standard, but Extant (1.6) didn't even manage half of that rating. At 9.6 million total viewers, the show skewed surprisingly old, pretty much right in the CBS procedural wheelhouse and much older than Under the Dome (even this season). As with most post-Big Brother dramas, the discrepancy in skew between lead-in and lead-out was particularly striking; Extant had over 50% more total viewers but was down three ticks from Big Brother (1.9) in 18-49ers. It's still the biggest scripted series premiere of this summer; but after a finals downtick, only tied with The Night Shift. It's not that hard to envision a cancellation with this start.
  • Elsewhere, So You Think You Can Dance (1.2) took a hit against increased CBS competition. And NBC's Taxi Brooklyn (0.9) adjusted down, snapping its run of 1.0's.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle (R) 1.0 30% +11% +43% 1.2
The Goldbergs (R) 1.1 37% +22% +83% 1.5
Modern Family (R) 1.4 44% +40% +56% 1.9
The Middle (R) 1.2 44% +33% +71% 1.6
Motive 0.8 26% +0%+0.0+0.2 5/7 +0% +23% +23% 1.2
ABC:+26%+50%
Big Brother Wed 1.9 40% +6%+0.1n/a 2/3 -5% +6% -7% 2.4
Extant 1.6 21% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +167% +39% 2.2
Criminal Minds (R) 1.2 24% +60% +20% 1.5
CBS:+49%+12%
America's Got Talent (R) 1.5 32% +9% -27% 1.9
Taxi Brooklyn 0.9 25% -10%-0.1+0.1 3/3 n/a -14% -40% 1.2
NBC:+3%-30%
So You Think You Can Dance 1.2 41% -14%-0.2n/a 7/7 -20% -13% -47% 1.6
Fox:-13%-47%
iHeartRadio Ultimate Pool Party 0.3 55% +50% +50% -18% 0.4
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.2 42% +0% -33% 0.3
CW:+38%-21%
Big5:+14%-18%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

25 comments:

Spot said...

I suppose Extant will have a ton of DVR playback. Very disappointing of a start, I was sure it was going to break a 2.0

Spot said...

I'm disinclined to think that there will be a long tail for this show. I mean, how many people are really gonna wanna watch Halle Berry get violated by space aliens?

Spot said...

The Office was a huge loss for NBC thursdays.


Parks and Rec viewership dropped just a bit, but started skewing older. 50% vs 62% in 2012-13 when it was the youngest skewing live-action comedy on TV. Community was actually up in viewers from last season but it also lost in the demo and it skewed 46% compared to 54 last season.

Spot said...

I was only slightly too pessimistic, and for that line that was good enough!

Spot said...

I thought Halle Berry was the weakest part storywise. Now her husband's humanoid robot project I thought was very intruiging and worth following

Spot said...

Maybe not aliens, maybe she'd been violated by gang of gremlins.

Spot said...

While I was expecting it to do way higher than that, I think this is just a reflection of how crazy the ratings were for Under the Dome last year. Like I said when it premiered this year, the only way that season 2 premiere rating was a bad one was if it was compared with itself and that was a very biased standard anyway.

Spot said...

I honestly found nearly every aspect and storyline at turns boring and infuriating. That said, I do wanna give a couple more eps to the government/corporate conspiracy component, as I am often wont to do in these scenarios.

Spot said...

For once, I do agree with this grade! ;)

Spot said...

This is like Whose Line is it Anyways where it gets repeated waaaaaayyyyy too much, but it repeats so well they have no real reason to stop it

Spot said...

I feel C- is a little generous for a show down a whopping 28%. Sure, there's mitigating factors in terms of lead-in and competition, but you could say the same about Parenthood and that got a D with a similar drop.

Spot said...

I don't mean in general, I mean why is it not original every week in the regular timeslot. I understood when they moved that one episode to go against Rising Star, but it's happening at least a couple more times.


Maybe they want to stretch it out over four months as they did in 2012, but don't have enough stuff to fill what would've been the Olympics hiatus?

Spot said...

I did not think Extant would skew that old.

Spot said...

I think they set the live premiere date and don't want to/maybe can't change it. The special episode on Sunday made it seem even more ridiculous

Spot said...

Perhaps the show is more expensive than we think, so rerunning it helps amortize the cost. Plus the reruns are rating much higher than scripted shows would (new or repeat).

Spot said...

But you must agree the 1.7 episode 2 was bad. That individual data point is down over 40% year to year and is now below the league average.

Spot said...

Spot, the updated 1.6 for Extant is not even half Under the Domes premiere (you've left "barely half" from the premilinaries version of the post)

Spot said...

They were basically the same show this year, weren't they? "Fell apart in a worse situation." 2.5 Men was the same, only worse.

Spot said...

Fixed!

Spot said...

Maybe like Dome this season, Extant will experience relatively high time shifted viewing. C3 ratings for Dome's season 2 premier were higher than last year's premier. My guess is that Live+ 7 Day will also increase from last year. Since Extant skewed older than Dome (perhaps due in part to an older Halle Berry fan base), DVR usage could also be proportionately higher. Aren't the ancients now just discovering the DVR as a newer version of their now broken and no longer manufactured VCR? :)

Spot said...

Well, if that was bad, what do we call Mistresses every single week, and that was renewed while airing after a much more compatible lead-in? What do we call Unforgettable, pulling half of those ratings on the same network? What do we call allegedly TV event of the season, 24, which hasn't hit that number in a long while? What do we call mega promoted "Extant" which launched with numbers even lower than that 1.7? What do we call "The Night Shift" which airs after AGT and was renewed without ever reaching a rating as high as that low of 1.7?



My point is that while both of your statements are true, they both have very important caveats associated with them:
a) "down over 40% year to year": as I've said, the standards that Dome set last year were insane. And yes we commented on the insane ratings it was getting last season but I don't think we fully realized how crazy those ratings were to its actual extent. They were out of this world crazy, so the comparison with itself will never be telling IMO.
b) below the league average: summer is simply a different beast and I am not sure how accurate is it to judge summer shows using the in-season league average. If we do it, then all of the aforementioned summer shows will look way awful than Dome...

Spot said...

Well, I don't think Mistresses, 24, or Unforgettable should return with their current ratings to be honest

Spot said...

I think we still don't know how to judge summer shows, the same way for a long time we weren't able to judge summer shows. For a long time, networks populated the summer with repeats and reality only but I think (much like Fridays) with networks increasing their investment there, we're gonna have too sooner or later.

Some numbers(excluding yesterday preliminary numbers):
Summer average ratings so far 0.94 (it's 1.13 if you use Spot's typical definition of excluding repeats and sports, but I don't think that's appropriate, especially for summer when you have a lot of repeats filling in)

Show's results if you divide by that number (considering summer episodes only, which means for 24 for instance the first weeks are out)
- America's Got Talent: 280
- Big Brother: 207
- Under the Dome: 202
- Masterchef: 186
- America Ninja Warrior: 182
- Extant: 176 (*premiere only)
- Hell's Kitchen: 172
- The Bachelorette: 168
- 24: 161
- So You Think You Can Dance: 155
- The Night Shift: 148
- Rising Star: 141
- Last Comic Standing: 141
- 20/20: 135
- What Would You Do?: 119
- Wipeout: 117
- Hollywood Game Night: 115
- Dateline: 114
- Extreme Weight Loss: 112
- Mistresses: 109
- Taxi Brooklyn: 103
- Rookie Blue: 101
- Undateable: 97
- Motive: 96
- Gang Related: 89
- NY Med: 86
- Unforgettable: 85
- Crossbones: 80
- Black Box: 74
- Sing Your Face Off: 69
- Reckless: 68
- Whose Line Is It Anyway?: 59
- Riot: 50
- Bet On Your Baby: 46
- I Wanna Marry Harry: 41
- Beauty and the Beast: 30
- Famous in 12: 23

However, and despite the fact that, as I've started by saying, we still don't know how to judge summer shows, I think putting things in perspective like I just did clearly makes Dome look like a blockbuster! Even more so if you consider scripted shows only!

Spot said...

You are right it is hard to measure summer success. AGT is a big sucess, but it isn't a bigger plus hit than Big Bang. And even in summer, the Bachelorette isn't as big of a hit as its parent The Bachelor. I'm impressed you did so much work just to prove your point though. Good work

Spot said...

The key question is, do you want to continue watching Halle Berry being violated by supercomputers?

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