Monday, August 11, 2014

Schedules Plus Update, NBC (2013-14)

Schedules Plus looks at the evolution of network schedules and timeslots using fairer numbers adjusted for historical decline. These update posts will link back to the now updated full posts for each day, and the update posts have exclusive comparisons vs. last year's schedule (in parenthesses) and vs. the full 11-year historical average (in the "VsAvg" row).

Many more disclaimers can be seen on the individual pages, but the most basic one to keep in mind is that the listed schedules are fall lineups, even when midseason replacements may have done much better. (But I try to mention those midseason replacements that did better.)

More 2013-14 Schedules Plus updates: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 The VoiceRevolution 179
208 208 122
2013-14 The VoiceThe Blacklist 192
211 (+2%) 211 (+2%) 153 (+26%)

Avg 114 125 92 110
VsAvg +85% +68% +67% +74%
Rank 1/11 1/11 2/11 1/11

NBC's combo of The Voice and The Blacklist was not just the biggest three-hour entertainment lineup on TV this season; it was the biggest three-hour entertainment lineup on TV in A18-49+ since 2005-06 (ABC's Extreme Makeover: Home Edition/Desperate Housewives/Grey's Anatomy). Having one megahit that takes up two hours and then a strong 10/9c player will do that. Unlike that 2005-06 lineup, this one will return intact the next fall... but only for a couple months. Like that 2005-06 lineup, the 10/9c show is ultimately getting moved to Thursday at 9/8c.


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 The Voice Go On The New NormalParenthood 121
194 90 7487
2013-14 The Biggest Loser The VoiceChicago Fire 135
102 (-47%) 196 (+138%) 108 (+24%)

Avg 107 110 110 109
VsAvg -4% +78% -2% +24%
Rank 6/11 1/11 7/11 1/11

NBC also had its best Tuesday in the A18-49+ era, even though The Biggest Loser at 8/7c and Chicago Fire at 10/9c were each below the historical averages (a testament to how strong Tuesday stayed even during NBC's darkest times). TBL was mostly compared against Voice results and other Biggest Loser seasons, while ChiFi was actually the biggest series in five years (ahead of all Parenthood seasons), but behind the previous six seasons of SVU. About a Boy (100) and Growing Up Fisher (86) came in at midseason, and NBC will look to improve on those results with Marry Me in the 9/8c slot.


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 Animal Practice Guys with Kids Law and Order: SVUChicago Fire 77
58 648287
2013-14 Revolution Law and Order: SVUIronside 75
73 (+19%) 95 (+16%) 56 (-36%)

Avg 64 84 87 78
VsAvg +14% +14% -36% -5%
Rank 2/11 5/11 11/11 7/11

Revolution is a solid piece of evidence that renewal decisions don't get made based on timeslot history. It was one of NBC's strongest players in a very troubled timeslot... but since NBC is overachieving in many other timeslots, something had to go to find room for new stuff. The bigger success story on the night was SVU, bouncing back big from a couple weak seasons. And Ironside was quickly pulled, but NBC did much better in the winter/spring with Chicago PD (88).


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 30 Rock Up All Night The Office Parks and RecreationRock Center 66
65 59 101 7748
62 89
2013-14 Parks and Recreation Welcome to the Family Sean Saves the World The Michael J. Fox ShowParenthood 60
62 (-5%) 50 (-16%) 54 (-47%) 62 (-19%)67 (+40%)
56 (-10%) 58 (-35%)

Avg 94 119 112 108
VsAvg -41% -51% -40% -44%
Rank 11/11 11/11 7/11 11/11

With The Office and 30 Rock ending, NBC could finally go all-out for "broadness" on Thursday, and... it was the season's most spectacular failure. Remove MJF's premiere night and it would score just a 54, tying Sean. Community (58) and Hollywood Game Night (56 for Thursday eps) eventually filled in at midseason and made very minor improvements, but this night was still a major blight on a network that has otherwise gotten its act together to a large degree. Parenthood at 10/9c was actually the strongest fall occupant since the end of ER, a feat only magnified given what a nightmare its lead-in was. Then again, The Jay Leno Show (57) actually finished second among that 10/9c group, which illustrates what a huge string of failures Parenthood is being compared against.


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 (repeats) GrimmDateline 58
38 74 61
2013-14 Dateline GrimmDracula 66
67 (+76%) 75 (+1%) 55 (-9%)

Avg 54 62 60 59
VsAvg +24% +21% -8% +12%
Rank 3/11 1/11 8/11 4/11

Another network, another successful Friday lineup. Relatively inexpensive dramas Dracula and midseason replacement Hannibal (46) couldn't pull Dateline numbers, but the night still upticked because Dateline was such an improvement at 8/7c. Constantine will mark yet another increase in Friday spending for NBC and thus be expected to take things up another notch at 10/9c.


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30 Avg
2012-13 Football Night p3 Sunday Night Football 355
190 387387387
2013-14 Football Night p3 Sunday Night Football 385
216 (+13%) 419 (+8%)419 (+8%)419 (+8%)
318 (+10%)

Avg 174 238 235 215
VsAvg +83% +76% +79% +79%
Rank 1/11 1/11 1/11 1/11

Football keeps getting bigger relative to entertainment series, and thus keeps inflating the perception of NBC's strength. American Dream Builders (38), Believe (59) and Crisis (60) showed up in the spring (averages are only Sunday regular season airings) and were considerably weaker options than usual Sunday spring option Celebrity Apprentice (which had a 76 in its most recent and easily weakest season).


Spot said...

The Blacklist would have to decline at least 67% to match Sean/Michael combo. It will be an improvement. The Biggest Loser has a similar situation. Since it is airing in the fall, I can see Marry Me beating out About a Boy's spring average. The only thing I'm not sure about improving is Mysteries of Laura. I'm still not sure if it is a comedy or drama... so can't see a big improvement there

Spot said...

The Voice will likely get weaker even in Plus this year, but I still like it providing enough juice to set up The Blacklist to at least restore Thursday dignity in 2015 - especially as said Thursday run will be kicked off with a post-SB episode, one that I think will actually legitimately help the show (especially with it forming a two-parter with the Thursday premiere). I'm really starting to like the split-season scheduling for Blacklist now - they've gone all-out to maximise the effect of having the SB this year, which makes a lot of sense.

Can State of Affairs get anything going? I'm not convinced, but again it'll be given a chance (although its Voice lead-in won't be all that hot by then).

If NBC can get even the slightest thing going on Thursdays, they should win the season and win it well. The key for them is to have enough pieces ready for when The Voice collapses - if they can get a strong scripted core and/or another reality megahit in place before their massive SB/Olympic double-whammy in February 2018, they could wind up as dominant in the second half of this decade as FOX were in the last (albeit with far lower numbers given the collective decline).

Spot said...

NBC is really a feast (Mondays, Tuesdays, fall Sundays) or famine (Wednesdays, Thursdays, spring Sundays) network. Chicago PD will at least improve on Ironside's performance, but I highly doubt that SVU will keep its scorching pace two years running and that The Mysteries of Laura will post any serious improvement. As for Thursdays, The Blacklist can't not improve the 9:00 slot. NBC's real hope is that the show can act like SVU and Grey's Anatomy: a 9:00 drama that isn't dependent on how bad the network screws up the 8:00 hour.

I'm surprised that Believe and Crisis ended up being the same show Plus-wise given that Believe had an advantage courtesy of a Voice preview. Maybe it should have been Crisis that got that chance.

Spot said...

Let's try it. NBC's contrastant situation is very weird, they are boom or bust, leader or fourth place.
Anyway, let's try to predict.
Hour that will be up:
Tuesdays at 8: The Voice replaces TBL, so, that one is a no-brainer.
Wednesdays at 10: Ironside was DOA, Chicago PD will easily improve it.
Thursdays at 8: can't get worse, can it? Even with TBL taking a 20% drop.
Thursdays at 9: no so sure on fall, but I believe it'll be a bit better, definitely on midseason onde Blacklist arrives there.
Sundays as a whole: they can't do worse than Believe/Crisis and lol at football dropping more than the league average (especially now with flexible schedule starting in week 5).
Tuesdays at 10: I can see Chicago Fire taking NBC's lowest drop among scripted veterans but it aired during the enitre fall after Voice, this year,

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