Many more disclaimers can be seen on the individual pages, but the most basic one to keep in mind is that the listed schedules are fall lineups, even when midseason replacements may have done much better. (But I try to mention those midseason replacements that did better.)
More 2013-14 Schedules Plus updates: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW
Monday
| 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | 10:30 | Avg | |
| 2012-13 | The Voice | Revolution | 179 | ||||
| 208 | 208 | 122 | |||||
| 2013-14 | The Voice | The Blacklist | 192 (+7%) | ||||
| 211 (+2%) | 211 (+2%) | 153 (+26%) | |||||
| Avg | 114 | 125 | 92 | 110 | |||
| VsAvg | +85% | +68% | +67% | +74% | |||
| Rank | 1/11 | 1/11 | 2/11 | 1/11 | |||
NBC's combo of The Voice and The Blacklist was not just the biggest three-hour entertainment lineup on TV this season; it was the biggest three-hour entertainment lineup on TV in A18-49+ since 2005-06 (ABC's Extreme Makeover: Home Edition/Desperate Housewives/Grey's Anatomy). Having one megahit that takes up two hours and then a strong 10/9c player will do that. Unlike that 2005-06 lineup, this one will return intact the next fall... but only for a couple months. Like that 2005-06 lineup, the 10/9c show is ultimately getting moved to Thursday at 9/8c.
Tuesday
| 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | 10:30 | Avg | |
| 2012-13 | The Voice | Go On | The New Normal | Parenthood | 121 | ||
| 194 | 90 | 74 | 87 | ||||
| 82 | |||||||
| 2013-14 | The Biggest Loser | The Voice | Chicago Fire | 135 (+12%) | |||
| 102 (-47%) | 196 (+138%) | 108 (+24%) | |||||
| Avg | 107 | 110 | 110 | 109 | |||
| VsAvg | -4% | +78% | -2% | +24% | |||
| Rank | 6/11 | 1/11 | 7/11 | 1/11 | |||
NBC also had its best Tuesday in the A18-49+ era, even though The Biggest Loser at 8/7c and Chicago Fire at 10/9c were each below the historical averages (a testament to how strong Tuesday stayed even during NBC's darkest times). TBL was mostly compared against Voice results and other Biggest Loser seasons, while ChiFi was actually the biggest series in five years (ahead of all Parenthood seasons), but behind the previous six seasons of SVU. About a Boy (100) and Growing Up Fisher (86) came in at midseason, and NBC will look to improve on those results with Marry Me in the 9/8c slot.
Wednesday
| 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | 10:30 | Avg | |
| 2012-13 | Animal Practice | Guys with Kids | Law and Order: SVU | Chicago Fire | 77 | ||
| 58 | 64 | 82 | 87 | ||||
| 61 | |||||||
| 2013-14 | Revolution | Law and Order: SVU | Ironside | 75 (-3%) | |||
| 73 (+19%) | 95 (+16%) | 56 (-36%) | |||||
| Avg | 64 | 84 | 87 | 78 | |||
| VsAvg | +14% | +14% | -36% | -5% | |||
| Rank | 2/11 | 5/11 | 11/11 | 7/11 | |||
Revolution is a solid piece of evidence that renewal decisions don't get made based on timeslot history. It was one of NBC's strongest players in a very troubled timeslot... but since NBC is overachieving in many other timeslots, something had to go to find room for new stuff. The bigger success story on the night was SVU, bouncing back big from a couple weak seasons. And Ironside was quickly pulled, but NBC did much better in the winter/spring with Chicago PD (88).
Thursday
| 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | 10:30 | Avg | |
| 2012-13 | 30 Rock | Up All Night | The Office | Parks and Recreation | Rock Center | 66 | |
| 65 | 59 | 101 | 77 | 48 | |||
| 62 | 89 | ||||||
| 2013-14 | Parks and Recreation | Welcome to the Family | Sean Saves the World | The Michael J. Fox Show | Parenthood | 60 (-9%) | |
| 62 (-5%) | 50 (-16%) | 54 (-47%) | 62 (-19%) | 67 (+40%) | |||
| 56 (-10%) | 58 (-35%) | ||||||
| Avg | 94 | 119 | 112 | 108 | |||
| VsAvg | -41% | -51% | -40% | -44% | |||
| Rank | 11/11 | 11/11 | 7/11 | 11/11 | |||
With The Office and 30 Rock ending, NBC could finally go all-out for "broadness" on Thursday, and... it was the season's most spectacular failure. Remove MJF's premiere night and it would score just a 54, tying Sean. Community (58) and Hollywood Game Night (56 for Thursday eps) eventually filled in at midseason and made very minor improvements, but this night was still a major blight on a network that has otherwise gotten its act together to a large degree. Parenthood at 10/9c was actually the strongest fall occupant since the end of ER, a feat only magnified given what a nightmare its lead-in was. Then again, The Jay Leno Show (57) actually finished second among that 10/9c group, which illustrates what a huge string of failures Parenthood is being compared against.
Friday
| 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | 10:30 | Avg | |
| 2012-13 | (repeats) | Grimm | Dateline | 58 | |||
| 38 | 74 | 61 | |||||
| 2013-14 | Dateline | Grimm | Dracula | 66 (+14%) | |||
| 67 (+76%) | 75 (+1%) | 55 (-9%) | |||||
| Avg | 54 | 62 | 60 | 59 | |||
| VsAvg | +24% | +21% | -8% | +12% | |||
| Rank | 3/11 | 1/11 | 8/11 | 4/11 | |||
Another network, another successful Friday lineup. Relatively inexpensive dramas Dracula and midseason replacement Hannibal (46) couldn't pull Dateline numbers, but the night still upticked because Dateline was such an improvement at 8/7c. Constantine will mark yet another increase in Friday spending for NBC and thus be expected to take things up another notch at 10/9c.
Sunday
| 8:00 | 8:30 | 9:00 | 9:30 | 10:00 | 10:30 | Avg | |
| 2012-13 | Football Night p3 | Sunday Night Football | 355 | ||||
| 190 | 387 | 387 | 387 | ||||
| 289 | |||||||
| 2013-14 | Football Night p3 | Sunday Night Football | 385 (+9%) | ||||
| 216 (+13%) | 419 (+8%) | 419 (+8%) | 419 (+8%) | ||||
| 318 (+10%) | |||||||
| Avg | 174 | 238 | 235 | 215 | |||
| VsAvg | +83% | +76% | +79% | +79% | |||
| Rank | 1/11 | 1/11 | 1/11 | 1/11 | |||
Football keeps getting bigger relative to entertainment series, and thus keeps inflating the perception of NBC's strength. American Dream Builders (38), Believe (59) and Crisis (60) showed up in the spring (averages are only Sunday regular season airings) and were considerably weaker options than usual Sunday spring option Celebrity Apprentice (which had a 76 in its most recent and easily weakest season).
4 comments:
The Blacklist would have to decline at least 67% to match Sean/Michael combo. It will be an improvement. The Biggest Loser has a similar situation. Since it is airing in the fall, I can see Marry Me beating out About a Boy's spring average. The only thing I'm not sure about improving is Mysteries of Laura. I'm still not sure if it is a comedy or drama... so can't see a big improvement there
The Voice will likely get weaker even in Plus this year, but I still like it providing enough juice to set up The Blacklist to at least restore Thursday dignity in 2015 - especially as said Thursday run will be kicked off with a post-SB episode, one that I think will actually legitimately help the show (especially with it forming a two-parter with the Thursday premiere). I'm really starting to like the split-season scheduling for Blacklist now - they've gone all-out to maximise the effect of having the SB this year, which makes a lot of sense.
Can State of Affairs get anything going? I'm not convinced, but again it'll be given a chance (although its Voice lead-in won't be all that hot by then).
If NBC can get even the slightest thing going on Thursdays, they should win the season and win it well. The key for them is to have enough pieces ready for when The Voice collapses - if they can get a strong scripted core and/or another reality megahit in place before their massive SB/Olympic double-whammy in February 2018, they could wind up as dominant in the second half of this decade as FOX were in the last (albeit with far lower numbers given the collective decline).
NBC is really a feast (Mondays, Tuesdays, fall Sundays) or famine (Wednesdays, Thursdays, spring Sundays) network. Chicago PD will at least improve on Ironside's performance, but I highly doubt that SVU will keep its scorching pace two years running and that The Mysteries of Laura will post any serious improvement. As for Thursdays, The Blacklist can't not improve the 9:00 slot. NBC's real hope is that the show can act like SVU and Grey's Anatomy: a 9:00 drama that isn't dependent on how bad the network screws up the 8:00 hour.
I'm surprised that Believe and Crisis ended up being the same show Plus-wise given that Believe had an advantage courtesy of a Voice preview. Maybe it should have been Crisis that got that chance.
Let's try it. NBC's contrastant situation is very weird, they are boom or bust, leader or fourth place.
Anyway, let's try to predict.
Hour that will be up:
Tuesdays at 8: The Voice replaces TBL, so, that one is a no-brainer.
Wednesdays at 10: Ironside was DOA, Chicago PD will easily improve it.
Thursdays at 8: can't get worse, can it? Even with TBL taking a 20% drop.
Thursdays at 9: no so sure on fall, but I believe it'll be a bit better, definitely on midseason onde Blacklist arrives there.
Sundays as a whole: they can't do worse than Believe/Crisis and lol at football dropping more than the league average (especially now with flexible schedule starting in week 5).
Toss-ups:
Tuesdays at 10: I can see Chicago Fire taking NBC's lowest drop among scripted veterans but it aired during the enitre fall after Voice, this year,
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