Since the low-priority Sunday 7/6 shows are never very interesting, I've started using this post as a de facto intro to the project each year. Here are a few quick things to know about this year's edition:
1. The tables have been rearranged. Taking all the text out of the table should make it less of a hassle on mobile, and I'm soon adding a script which will make the individual tables scrollable on small screens. But it's all the same numbers as were in these tables when introduced two years ago.
2. For the first time, I'm going to do multiple predictions for a show that moves in the middle of the season. This won't happen for all (or even most) of the moving shows, as I don't see there being a ton to say about lateral-ish moves (like The Big Bang Theory's Monday -> Thursday) or burn-off situations. It's mostly here for NBC's The Blacklist plan, though other situations may perk up that warrant it. (I probably would've done Bones' Friday move last year, for instance.) Basically, all the predictions here will be for the show's first listed timeslot, rather than projecting future moves (even ones that have been announced).
3. This isn't new, but CBS' introduction of Thursday Night Football will make it more extreme this year. These 22 posts will only predict the first regular series in each slot. So quite a few series are getting bumped to the "late fall" edition, including 2 Broke Girls, CBS' Thursday entertainment series, MasterChef Junior, State of Affairs, as well as other late fall changes that may get announced based on early developments.
4. The True numbers listed in these posts will be the old (that is, 2013-14) version. I've been working on a new version this summer, but it's not quite to my satisfaction right now. Let's hope it will get there over the next three weeks...
And with that, away we go! The Sunday 7/6c hour is a primetime oddity, essentially a low-viewed weekend hour that the networks usually fill with low-priority stuff. But it leads into the highest-viewed three-hour period of the week, and on NFL Sundays it often pulls some of the week's highest ratings.
|America's Funniest Home Videos|
|Premieres October 5|
|Timeslot Occupants||America's Funniest Home Videos|
Best Case: Like 60 Minutes, ABC's lead-off show will continue getting stronger compared to regular entertainment programming. This isn't nearly as big a deal as 60 Minutes' NFL lead-ins, but it gets a late-season boost when ABC airs the NBA playoffs in the late afternoon, and that will only intensify over time. Throw in a little interest in host Tom Bergeron's final season and it's up a hundredth to 1.41.
Worst Case: This show has really overachieved for a couple years running now, and people will finally start to realize how obsolete this should be in a world with YouTube. It drops 18% to a 1.15, putting it on the low end of its Plus scores over the last eleven years.
Likeliest: As much as this show may seem like a relic, there's little to suggest it's slowing down. It's been around a 1.0 for repeats this summer, which is actually slightly up from last year's average. I don't see it getting a whole lot stronger than last year's already high-end number, but it's down a tiny bit less than average: -9% to a 1.28.
|Premieres September 21|
|Timeslot Occupants||60 Minutes|
Best Case: CBS has a string of amazing late-afternoon games and its heavily-boosted lead-out 60 Minutes grows slightly to 2.05.
Worst Case: The introduction of Thursday Night Football slightly dilutes CBS' afternoon NFL matchups on average, and slightly dilutes the production as well (since CBS' NFL A-team will be primarily focused on Thursdays). Throw in a slightly off year for the NFL in general and 60 Minutes drops 15% to a 1.67.
Likeliest: I'm a very slight seller on the NFL this year, but not enough of one to bring 60 Minutes below a league-average drop. It goes -9% to a 1.79 average.
Even I'm not enough of a completist to do the 90 minutes of Sunday Night Football pregame shows, so we'll jump right into the SNF prediction as always.
|Sunday Night Football|
|Premieres September 4|
|Timeslot Occupants||Football Night in America p2|
Best Case: The franchise has been down in raw numbers for the last two years, and by NFL standards that's "underachievement." It will even out from that and return to its 8.36 raw numbers zenith from two years ago, marking a +6% season.
Worst Case: The NFL has simply reached a point where it can't really grow anymore. And in fact, a rather discouraging preseason suggests it may be on a cultural downturn. A third major primetime package on Thursday oversaturates the NFL market. Sunday Night Football drops about in line with entertainment programming, if not a bit more, down over 10% to 7.00.
Likeliest: Preseason returns are not exactly encouraging, but they're probably not all that meaningful either. Still, factor in that and the added Thursday games and I think the year-to-year trend will continue to ever-so-slightly worsen. But I can't see it getting down into entertainment programming decline territory. Down about 4.5% to a 7.55.
|Premieres October 5|
|1.47||-24%||marginal||1.37||+7%||Sun 8:30, Sun 7:00|
|Timeslot Occupants||The OT||American Dad!|
Best Case: The best case is actually that Bob's Burgers doesn't have to air much at 7:30, which would likely be connected to a quick hook for Mulaney. But if it does air pretty much entirely at 7:30, the best Fox has really done in this slot historically is a little over a 70 Plus. That would translate to about a 1.27 (or the same raw number American Dad! averaged there in just the spring).
Worst Case: The worst they've done historically at 7:30 is in the 60 Plus range, but those shows (even The Cleveland Show) were a bit stronger than Bob's. It could do a bit worse; maybe it matches the 0.95 that it averaged at 7:00 last spring.
Likeliest: With Bordertown in reserve, it will probably take a lot for Bob's to find its way back to 8:30 or 9:30 on a regular basis. But a lot could happen. It's tough to predict the effect of erratic scheduling and local NFL lead-ins in the fall, but I'll say a 1.12 for the 7:30 episodes.
The Network to Watch: Fox. How near is the end for the poorly-treated Bob's Burgers?
The Picks: I will watch NFL overruns!