Monday, August 25, 2014

Schedules Plus Update, The CW (2013-14)


Schedules Plus looks at the evolution of network schedules and timeslots using fairer numbers adjusted for historical decline. These update posts will link back to the now updated full posts for each day, and the update posts have exclusive comparisons vs. last year's schedule (in parenthesses) and vs. the full eight-year historical average (in the "VsAvg" row). Be advised on the CW post that these averages only go back to beginning of the network's existence in 2006-07 and don't include WB/UPN stuff in any way.

Many more disclaimers can be seen on the individual pages, but the most basic one to keep in mind is that the listed schedules are fall lineups, even when midseason replacements may have done much better. (But I try to mention those midseason replacements that did better.)

More 2013-14 Schedules Plus updates: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | CW



Monday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 Avg
2012-13 90210 Gossip Girl 19
18 21
2013-14 Hart of Dixie Beauty and the Beast 17
(-10%)
19 (+6%) 16 (-24%)

Avg 30 31 31
VsAvg -37% -49% -43%
Rank 7/8 8/8 8/8

The CW's last real surrender night became the worst non-Sunday fall night in network history, dropping even behind all eight of the CW Friday lineups! Beauty and the Beast went well behind the already weak final season of Gossip Girl at 9/8c. At midseason, the network did no better with Star-Crossed (17) at 8/7c, but the seven Monday hours of The Tomorrow People (20) were a slight improvement (though not enough to get it renewed over BatB). The surrender is over when season two of The Originals moves to Monday this fall, but the problems may continue with the seemingly incompatible Jane the Virgin at 9/8c.



Tuesday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 Avg
2012-13 Hart of Dixie Emily Owens M.D. 22
26 18
2013-14 The Originals Supernatural 50
(+127%)
47 (+81%) 53 (+194%)

Avg 39 30 35
VsAvg +20% +74% +44%
Rank 3/8 1/8 1/8

Despite year-to-year declines (and sub-historical average ratings) on every single other night, the enormous rise of Tuesday singlehandedly made it a growth year for the network as a whole. It was not just the CW's biggest night this season and not just the CW's biggest Tuesday ever; it was the CW's biggest night overall since 2009-10 (perhaps not coincidentally, The Vampire Diaries/Supernatural Thursday). The extent of The Originals' success was not a major surprise, since it was borrowing several familiar characters from The Vampire Diaries mothership. What really made this evening such a surprising story was Supernatural's continued growth, hitting a series high in A18-49+ in its ninth season.



Wednesday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 Avg
2012-13 Arrow Supernatural 49
50 47
2013-14 Arrow The Tomorrow People 40
(-17%)
49 (-2%) 32 (-32%)

Avg 54 34 44
VsAvg -9% -5% -8%
Rank 7/8 6/8 6/8

Arrow is one of the biggest newbie successes in the history of the CW, but it's still below-average in a timeslot that sees it compared against the prime years of America's Next Top Model. Keeping up with last year's Supernatural numbers was always going to be a tough task for The Tomorrow People, but the extent of its slippage was a clear disappointment. The 100 filled in at midseason and had the exact same average (32), but it was viewed much more favorably since it came later in the season and had several repeat lead-ins (including three weeks after the end of the regular season). That got it a shot at the fall schedule in 2014.



Thursday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 Avg
2012-13 The Vampire Diaries Beauty and the Beast 44
59 29
2013-14 The Vampire Diaries Reign 42
(-3%)
54 (-8%) 31 (+6%)

Avg 55 36 46
VsAvg -2% -15% -7%
Rank 5/8 7/8 8/8

It was not a good season for The Vampire Diaries, which took a steady decline from 1.3's in the fall all the way to 0.7's and 0.8's in the spring. However, Reign made a minor improvement on Beauty and the Beast, keeping the Thursday lineup reasonably close to even year-to-year. A network that very rarely keeps entire nights intact for multiple full seasons will attempt to pull it off with TVD and Reign staying put this year.



Friday


8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 Avg
2012-13 Nikita America's Next Top Model 20
16 24
2013-14 The Carrie Diaries America's Next Top Model 20
(-1%)
16 (+3%) 23 (-3%)

Avg 30 29 29
VsAvg -45% -20% -32%
Rank 7/8 6/8 8/8

The Carrie Diaries actually bombed less hard in its Friday move than I was expecting, but it still did 2012-13 Nikita numbers and got the axe. The network will hope to take a step up this fall with Whose Line Is It Anyway?, which had a solid 26 average in its spring Friday episodes and has done even better (31) on Monday in the summer.

14 comments:

Spot said...

I agree that Mondays will probably still be problematic for The CW. The Originals and Jane the Virgin are more fem-focused shows, but that's about the only similarity. The network's hoping for a Reign-type situation: that Jane's incompatibility (light-hearted telenovela adaption leading out of a dark fantasy/horror spin-off) will be outweighed by just having more volume. Gun to my head, I think Jane is competing against iZombie to stay on the schedule come January/February by process of elimination: if reports about The 100's 2014-2015 run are true (16 episodes versus 13+possible back 9), then The Messengers feels like the natural post-Arrow show. Hart of Dixie should finish its run on Fridays paired with Whose Line and Beauty & the Beast is held for Summer 2015.

2014-2015 Tuesdays won't see the explosive growth that we got this year but it's possible that the night could take another step up with The Flash, especially considering how hot Supernatural's 9th season ended.

Thursdays, though, could be the next night to spring a leak if The Vampire Diaries can't get back to a 1.x in the Fall. And that could be a big ask since ABC will have its act together (comparatively) in the 8:00 hour with Grey's Anatomy and NBC will be stronger with The Biggest Loser.

Spot said...

Up year toyear:
· Mondays at 8: The Originals should easily double what Harto of Dixie and Star Crossed were doing there last year, even if it doesn’t look as bright when compared with itself from a year ago
· Tuesdays at 8: I think the flash has potential to beat the originals seeing how much slippage there was there in the spring. At the very least, The Flash should be even year to year in raw numbers so its up in plus.
· Tuesdays at 9: I don’t think Supernatural will fall more than the league average after such a strong season and paired with Flash..
· Wednesdays at 9:The 100 should improve on TTP. It’s hard to know about the messengers (if that’s the one coming here) improving on the 100 itself, but I will give it a shot.
· Fridays at 8:Whose Line will demolish The Carrie Diaries

Down year toyear:
· Thursdays at 8:The Vampire Diaries slippage in the spring was probably very much real and it will be tough to come back from that going up against Grey’s Anatomy. The fall comparisons will probably be ugly
· Thursdays at 9: Idon’t think Reign will fall as hard as TVD but it ended the season on a prettylousy fashion so there is not much reason to be optimistic

Depends on theleague average decline:
· Mondays at 9: Iam inclined to put this one on the up year to year if only because the bar is so low. I think Jane will flop but it will probably pull the same 0.3s that Beast did and so it would actually be up year to year in Plus. But I don’t know what happens at midseason so I leave it here.
· Wednesdays at 8:Arrow will probably be close to the league average regardless of what side it falls on. I think the flash could help it beat the league average but it should be close.
· Fridays at 9: ANTM should be close to the same in Plus just because I dunno why it would fall too much now and Dixie already did so low that I don’t see it going down too much either. I am not even sure what it will be compared with though, will it be repeats? Also Beast might show up here so this hour is really hard to grasp at.

If, come midseason, all these very expected things happen:
· Jane the Virginflopping
· The Flash being ahuge hit, probably the CW best performer
· The Originalsstruggling a bit on Mondays
· Supernaturalcontinuing to hold

My pet idea would be for the CW to then just go ahead and move Supernatural to Mondays allowing iZombie or The Messengers to launch after The Flash. It would put the flash lead-in to very good use while also using Supernatural to help out their most promising sophomore on Mondays. The new Tuesday show likely wouldn’t be able to match Supernatural year ago performance but as long as it is a good show, the Supernatural gains on Monday (compared to Beast and TTP) should more than outweight any Tuesday losses! I understand why the cw didn’t do it right away (to support the flash and not to do the “ridiculous” thing of transplanting a pair all at once just so that flash can avoid facing gotham) but come midseason they should do it. I am a bit convinced that Jane is simply a timeslot holder and that this is their true intention.

It would be: TO/Supernatual, The Flash/iZombie, Arrow/The 100 and then Arrow/The Messengers, The Vampire Diaries/Reign and Whose Line/Hart of Dixie

Spot said...

I have an alternative idea for Mondays.

If, come midseason, all these very expected things happen:
· Jane the Virginflopping
· The Flash being ahuge hit, probably the CW best performer
· The Originalsstruggling a bit on Mondays
· Supernaturalcontinuing to hold

My pet idea would be for the CW to then just go ahead and move Supernatural to Mondays allowing iZombie or The Messengers to launch after The Flash. It would put the flash lead-in to very good use while also using Supernatural to help out their most promising sophomore on Mondays. The new Tuesday show likely wouldn’t be able to match Supernatural year ago performance but as long as it is a good show, the Supernatural gains on Monday (compared to Beast and TTP) should more than outweight any Tuesday losses! I understand why the cw didn’t do it right away (to support the flash and not to do the “ridiculous” thing of
transplanting a pair all at once just so that flash can avoid facing gotham) but come midseason they should do it. I am a bit convinced that Jane is simply a timeslot holder and that this is their true intention.

Spot said...

I get where you are coming from, and I think the idea is a good one. I just don't see The CW moving Supernatural midseason because it creates an extra move to promote. The network's modus operandi has been to move pieces during the season when they aren't working (see: Hart of Dixie, The Tomorrow People, Cult, Backpackers, Seed) as opposed to when they are (yes ANTM is moving midseason to Fridays in a few weeks, but this is because Backpackers and Seed were so DOA that leaving them on the schedule would have been more damaging and a placeholder was needed). Your scheduling idea means The CW needs its PR department to advertise two new shows, one returning show, and one moving show. For a mini-net like this one, that may be too much upheaval.

But, again, I really like your pet idea. If only Hart of Dixie had shown some muscle; Jane the Virgin is a very compatible piece for it but that would be dooming the newbie at the outset.

Spot said...

I agree that it's likely The CW will quickly move Supernatural to Monday and use the large Flash lead-in to launch something new. I doubt they want to waste a huge lead-in on a show in its tenth season for very long.



I don't think the scheduling is about using Supernatural to support The Flash as much as trying to use the female-skewing Originals to give Jane the Virgin a shot as success.

Spot said...

I don't really see them moving SPN at all for S10, but It could happen the year after. They probably just pair TO/Izombie or The Messenger later in the season. SPN will clash with Sleepy Hollow which I think has more of a crossover audience then AOS.

Spot said...

I don't think that happens, because Flash is obviously male skewing, while it seems they're cutting iZombie for young females.
At first I thought iZombie is male oriented (based on comic book, description similar to Tru Calling), but with female lead and all, now I believe that show is targeting W18-34.

Thus, logical pairing is Originals / Izombie.
And Arrow / The Messengers, like you said anyway.

Spot said...

I think that Flash is going to premiere huge. Like it would hit league average for the premiere. Flash is a top tier hero. Way higher on the hero ranks than the Green Arrow, the entire Shield organization, and miles above Costantine. With FOX and ABC both going with complete unknowns in the 8 o'clock hour, I would say Flash getting 3rd at least on premiere. It would be hard to not improve Originals plus.
.
I'm not so sure about Supernatural. Two consecutive years raw growth is impressive, but its only drama competition has been NCIS: LA. Which skews completely differently that Supernatural. Now it has to deal with Shield, which will easily destroy LA's M18-34 scores

Spot said...

It would be almost impossible for the Originals to not match HOD in its slot. And Jane looks awful, but actually has some good reviews. It'll need a bunch of .2's to do worse.
.
The 100 should beat the Tomorrow people and WLIIA should stomp out Carrie Diaries

Spot said...

I don't really see evidence that they don't like midseason moves. Last year for instance they could also have easily sent TTP to die on Fridays instead of Dixie (just rolling Dixie down an hour on Mondays to make room for Star Crossed at 8), but they went to the trouble of moving both Dixie and TTP when they didn't need to.

Sure the previous year they gave Cult the most incompatible lead-in on the network but that to be says more about Cult than it does about the network's modus operandi.

And besides these last two years, it's hard to grasp at what the CW's modus operandi is at midseason because they didn't really use to have promising midseason shows to launch as far as I remember. Life Unexpected is the only one I recall and didn't the CW also move pieces around to make room for it? (Not that I think it's even very relevant since that was under Ostroff's leadership). The Carrie Diaries already had a slot since GG was ending but even then, they did move 90210 by sliding it down an hour instead of leaving things as they were.

Truth to be said, I think the only network who likes midseason moves is FOX (and that one likes it too much I would say... cough Bones cough...), the others seem pretty hesistant to do them even when they are seemingly no brainers, but they still tend to try and do them every once in a while when it is about giving promising newbies their best show.

IMO, promising is the key word here. For instance, we can all hate ABC for throwing Mind Games and Lucky 7 to the wolves in a slot they had no chance to succeed but they actually went to the trouble of moving stuff up for Resurrection even if a Revenge lead-out slot was still a whole lot better than a Trophy WIfe lead-out slot. See also the move of PP to Tuesdays in the middle of the season to give Scandal a shot while they threw thousands of bombs up to the 8pm Thursday slot. My point is that if networks are really confident in their newbies they will move up stuff for it. So if the CW is confident in iZombie I would assume they would rather give it the flash lead-in than the originals lead-in. If they help TO in the process by pairing it up with Supernatural, that's an additional incentive.

Spot said...

iZombie and Flash are from the same comics book universe, I think it's a very natural pairing. I also think The Flash has potential to have mass appeal (for CW's terms, I mean), so it wouldn't be such a major consideration.

I would agree with that argument only if there isn't a significant gap between TO and The Flash. If The Flash is pulling 1s or higher and TO is hanging around a 0.6-0.7 (which could entail as much as a 0.5 difference), I think it would be ridiculous to give such a promising lead-in to a veteran like Supernatural, which could also help patch thing up with the sophomore they should also protect. It would be a win win. If the situation is something like 0.9 for Flash and 0.7 for TO then I would agree that it is an unnecessary move and disrepution and compatibility.

Spot said...

It's funny that you have that impression as I have the exact opposite. Jane feels like 100% like a placeholder to me, like something they are plugging in there in the fall just to plug something while concentrating all their efforts in The Flash.

Spot said...

There's also possibility for this Monday 9 PM wild scenario:
in October - Jane the Virgin, flops
November to January - Hart of Dixie final season
February to March - iZombie, flops
from April, and into summer - Beauty and the Beast

Though maybe CW would rather like HoD and/or BatB on Friday in that case, with Whose Line patching Monday lineup instead.

Spot said...

The only way I really see Supernatural moving midseason to give the post-Flash slot to iZombie is if The Flash launches and sustains bigger than The Vampire Diaries' first season in historical-adjusted terms or especially in raw numbers. Even then it feels unlikely since Supernatural is back in The CW's good graces and I still believe there's a general "If it ain't broke, don't fix it til the new season" mentality when it comes to scheduling. Why mess with unqualified success? The only real exception to this is when a network is so utterly out of the game on a night that a hit show needs to move onto it to try becoming relevant (see: The Blacklist's Thursday move).

Plus I think there's value in seeing if The Originals is truly an anchor show that can launch something new. I don't think that something will be Jane the Virgin but iZombie could be.

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