Tuesday, November 5, 2013

November 2013 Best Case/Worst Case: Mike and Molly, Raising Hope, Almost Human


Here's a quick Best Case/Worst Case look at the three scripted shows premiering this November. The timeslot info on the blue bars (explained in the intro) covers the first five weeks of the regular season.

Image Mike and Molly Slot Average
Premieres November 4 2.42
Best Case: Somehow there are scores of people out there who would watch a sitcom just for Melissa McCarthy yet didn't know she had one over the last several years. "The new" Mike and Molly is a new kind of ratings performer and a surprise anchor-worthy show for 2014-15. 3.00.

Worst Case:
This show just isn't distinctive enough to turn around the fast-deteriorating CBS Monday culture. It had 85% retention, and that gets a bit worse now that M&M is airing at the top of a tough hour. Down a whooping 30% to a 2.00.

Likeliest:
The scheduling may work in this show's favor out of the gate, but when the dust settles I don't think the marketing/tweaks are going to make this show anything more than what it's been in its first few seasons. It'll be, as always, a respectable option but not a CBS Monday game-changer. 2.30.
Slot Orig Avg
2.50
2.85Occupants
2 Broke Girls
y2y Label
-23% hit2.50 2.53
True SitchThe Big Bang Theory (R)
2.47 +15%
Last Pick Miss2.37 2.20
3.36 -15%
2012-13 Slot
Monday 9:30



Image Raising Hope Slot Average
Premieres November 15 0.78
Best Case: Is it possible that a Friday timeslot could be better than a Tuesday one? Last year this show led off the night against NCIS and The Voice. This time it has what should be a good-for-Friday lead-in in Bones, and it drops just 15% to a 1.35.

Worst Case:
To answer the above question: no, it's not possible. Especially when all three competing networks are doing pretty well in the timeslot. Plus, its helpful Bones lead-in gets called back into emergency Monday duty after Almost Human bombs. Raising Hope drops nearly 50% to near Sleepy Hollow repeat territory at 0.85.

Likeliest:
Bones is actually going to air on Friday, which is a big help. It could well do mid-1's. Still, this may be about as competitive as a Friday timeslot has been in recent memory, so anything better than very low 1's would be a win for Hope. Fox will have to decide if those very low 1's are a worthy launch pad for Enlisted this January. (Maybe putting Enlisted right after Bones would be better.) 1.08.
Slot Orig Avg
n/a
1.59Occupants
Sleepy Hollow (R)
y2y Label
-27% marginal0.82 0.93
True Sitch
1.55 +3%
Last Pick Miss
2.00 -21%
2012-13 Slot
Tuesday 8:00



Image Almost Human (NEW!) Slot Average
2.09
Slot Orig Avg
Premieres November 17 2.09
Best Case: Fox always seems to premiere Monday dramas well, and this one will be no exception since it's getting an NFL boost. Based on how well The Following and Sleepy Hollow have held up, it seems the network's drama development is improving. This is just another solid entry: 2.65.

Worst Case:
Whereas The Following and Sleepy Hollow have succeeded by dialing up the crazy, this show is a return to bland proceduralsville, and the genre audience loses interest fast. 1.20, and Fox brings Bones back to Monday to help The Following.

Likeliest:
I see this skewing older and less buzzy than Fox's last two successes, and I doubt that this concept is as much of a hook as The Following or Sleepy Hollow. (Then again, I also said that about The Following and Sleepy Hollow...) But given the Sunday launch-pad and just how ripe this night is for drama counter-programming, I don't think it totally bombs either. It at least looks better than The Mob Doctor. A frontloaded 1.75 average and on the bubble.
Occupants
Bones
2.12 2.19

20 comments:

Spot said...

Yay, thanks for doing these! I know I am a pain in the ass always asking but I really enjoy reading them and this ear I've even dared to do my own predictions. Speaking of which:
- Mike and Molly: I think CBS is over-estimating this show, but then again, they were to put in a position where they needed to over-estimate this show. I think it will do better than average for now but will eventually settle down in the solid but not game changer player that it has always been, I agree with you. Plus, let's not forget that there are 7 episodes of the show that will have to air surrounded by repeats at some point, and I am sure that will not help its average. Down 17%, to a 2.14


- Raising Hope: You put it very well when you said that airing on Friday could actually be a better arrangement than airing on Tuesday but I am still not seeing it. Doubling up on episodes means the second one doesn't technically get the direct Bones lead-in and the possibility of an Enlisted lead-in later on also doesn't appeal that much to my average calculations. 1.0 and out at season's end when it reaches the 88


- Almost Human: I was more positive on this show than I was on Sleepy Hollow before the start of the season and I haven't changes that perspective yet, even with Sleepy Hollow's success. I say it almost equals the following's year ago numbers in A18-49. A 2.22 after accounting for the almost and the league average decline, slightly up from Bones' year ago average. Probably a renewal.

Spot said...

I agree for the most part.

Spot said...

Fox has been pushing Almost Human pretty hard, and they must be high on the show if they a) waited until after the World Series mucked up their schedule to premiere it and b) are giving it a post-NFL debut. The show would be a win if it averages Bones' numbers and an easy renewal if so.

Spot said...

Almost Human seems like it'll have good initial hype cuz sci-fi! Androids! JJ Abrams!
But the ads make it look terrible...so I expect a S1 Revolution-like run at best, a S2 Revolution-like run at worst?

Spot said...

Given how change-adverse CBS typically is with scheduling, and how they've had a 4-sitcom block on Monday dating back to the late 80s, if they trimmed back Mondays in lieu of Thursdays I'd be very surprised.

Spot said...

Thru week five, 148.

Spot said...

CBS has had a sitcom airing in Mike & Molly's current spot since the '50s when I Love Lucy aired there. I cannot see that changing. CBS's Monday comedy at 9 outdates Must See TV, TGIF, and Animation Domination. CBS has had a comedy at 9 on Mondays longer than they have had 60 Minutes at 7 on Sundays.

Spot said...

What is the current year-to-year decline?

Spot said...

Nikita returns this month too, on November 22.

Spot said...

I suspect the late schedule change and NFL launch was because it was tracking badly rather than being a vote of confidence. Fox has adjusted the marketing since its premiere was pushed back, putting more emphasis on action and comedy, so tonally it comes across more like Sleepy Hollow..
I've had the show down as a bust since the trailer in back in May, because it felt like a cheesy sci-fi show crossed with a generic procedural, and the show would neither appeal to those who like sci-fi nor those who like procedurals. However, the new promo direction has given me some pause for thought.

Spot said...

Oh boy, it'll be exciting to see whether Mike & Molly gets adjusted up or down, since it's right on the edge for The Question. Does it usually go up or down?

Spot said...

It was not adjusted

Spot said...

True

Spot said...

I still think they are more likely to try and remain with the 4 hours, so I suspect we'll never get our answer. It would take Intelligence to be a hit and both TGW and Blue Bloods being financially attractive for them to do so I think and I am not feeling it right now.

Spot said...

Wow! That means it's the second Question this season within half a tick, if I'm not mistaken. Crazy!

Spot said...

And the second one I've missed.

There's even a thematic connection, because the other was TBL!

Spot said...

Who in the world could've imagined that a 10pm drama (that launched in spring to low-end bubble numbers, no less!) could be a borderline big hit by season three? With SHIELD tanking, I would argue that the Shonda block is almost as central to ABC as The Voice is to NBC.

Spot said...

Could come down to the development, of course. CBS had a comedy strikeout to keep them at three hours in 2012, then a drama strikeout pushed them to comedy expansion in 2013.

Spot said...

Wow only the second you've missed? I miss most of them ahah. But I have to say, these ones in which I miss by 0.1 are by far the most annoying ones, it's really just pure luck for these.

Spot said...

No, second of the 0.05 misses.

I'm batting about .650 this season. Which I'm happy with.

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