Friday, November 15, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/14/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • On another day of mostly tiny week-to-week fluctuations, here were the ones that seemed a little less meaningless:
    • With The Voice gone at 8/7c and Parks and Recreation back, Sean Saves the World gave back all of last week's growth and then some. In fact, it and The Michael J. Fox Show both tumbled below a 1.0 in finals!
    • For the second straight day, The X Factor bounced back a teeny bit from an uncommon competitive situation last week. But for the second straight day, it's still down 40%+ year-to-year.
    • And the CW's Reign had its first uptick, pulling it ahead of The Tomorrow People for the first time (and only a 0.1 lead-in difference between the two). With both shows now back-nined, the question now turns to what the CW will do at midseason. I still think they will want to give at least one of the slots to a midseason newbie, and it's looking muddier to guess which slot (or both? neither?) that will be.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland 0.9 31% +0%+0.0n/a 4/5 n/a +0% -28% 1.1
Grey's Anatomy 2.6 39% -4%-0.1+0.0 7/8 -19% -4% -17% 2.8
Scandal 2.9 41% +4%+0.1-0.1 4/7 +45% +5% +41% 3.3
ABC:+1%-1%
The Big Bang Theory 5.2 36% +6%+0.3n/a 3/8 -9% +6% -9% 5.6
The Millers 2.6 30% +0%+0.0+0.3 5/7 n/a +0% -37% 2.3
The Crazy Ones 2.1 31% +0%+0.0+0.0 6/8 n/a +0% -32% 1.9
Two and a Half Men 2.1 31% +5%+0.1+0.0 5/7 -49% +5% -32% 2.0
Elementary 1.6 24% -11%-0.2+0.1 7/8 -30% -9% -32% 1.9
CBS:+1%-27%
Parks and Recreation 1.1 46% -15%-0.2n/a 5/5 -35% -56% -12% 1.3
Sean Saves the World 0.9 43% -36%-0.5-1.4 7/7 n/a -36% -57% 1.1
The Michael J. Fox Show 0.9 45% -10%-0.1-0.5 8/8 n/a -10% -47% 1.1
Parenthood 1.2 40% -8%-0.1-0.1 6/8 -37% -8% +4% 1.6
NBC:-36%-26%
The X Factor Thu 1.3 32% +8%+0.1n/a 6/7 -46% +8% -47% 1.5
Glee 1.4 42% -7%-0.1+0.1 5/5 -33% -10% -32% 1.5
Fox:-2%-40%
The Vampire Diaries 1.3 61% +0%+0.0n/a 1/7 +0% +4% +4% 1.6
Reign 0.7 53% +17%+0.1+0.0 2/5 n/a +17% +27% 0.8
CW:+8%+11%
Big5:-6%-21%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

20 comments:

Spot said...

I'm curious where everyone thinks Elementary's bottom will be. It has pretty steadily ticked downward this season from an already disappointing premiere, with one week dropping down to 1.5. It had a minor rebound up to 1.8. but now this week is back down to 1.6. It seems very unlikely it will ever hit 2.0 again and now has a 1.81 average.


The crowd at TVBN keeps beating the drum that the show is safe because of syndication possibilities, but that seems a silly idea to me considering this is a show not even halfway through its second season on Thursdays these are the numbers it's getting, already down over 20% from last year. Last year, the show crashed significantly in the spring so it seems like a recovery is unlikely after the holidays.

Spot said...

Elementary feels more like a Friday show in terms of skew and content, but I don't know if CBS is going to make any changes to the weekend night; much like Wednesday it has that good-not-great feel to it from top to bottom, and CBS will want to address Mondays and Thursdays more seriously in 2014-2015. My guess is that Elementary joins The Good Wife on Sundays unless Undercover Boss has another late-season meltdown.

Spot said...

CBS seems to be really gearing up behind Intelligence this season in terms of PR, so I honestly wonder - if Elementary continues this trend - if they won't decide to switch at midseason and stick Elementary on Mondays and move Intelligence to Thursdays. CBS needs a strong 9 pm drama and Elementary's time never came, but it no longer has any CBS PR clout behind it, so it's basically a waste in the Thursday slot. Trying to launch new dramas on Mondays hasn't worked for years, so let Elementary go there and launch Intelligence on Thursday. These numbers would be fine on a Monday if it could sustain it there, and if not, then quietly cancel it.

Spot said...

CBS doesn't really have a choice in getting behind Intelligence; a crummy drama development season meant it was one of the three shows it picked up, and the only one that's on-brand for the Eye. A mid-season move for the drama is unlikely for two reasons: CBS needs to find an anchor for Mondays, and moving a new series brings instability.

Spot said...

CBS may only need to cancel one veteran drama this year, and all of th Friday/Sunday dramas are probably below Elementary in that regard. If Elementary makes it to season 3, it won't be because it's ratings were awesome, it'll be because they didn't have to cancel it to make room for new shows.

It's the same thing with Revenge, maybe it's ratings look bad in a vacuum, but on the ABC drama totem pole it's ahead of all the rookie dramas except SHIELD (and who knows where that'll be by May) and it's probably ahead of Nashville. That'll be enough to keep Revenge around for a Season 4, as they don't need to cancel that many shows.

Spot said...

It's amazing to see two shows headed by classic sitcom stars like Sean Hayes and Michael J. Fox just crashing and burning in a big way. Both below 1.0 after adjustments. Neither one will make it to fall 2014. Yet NBC seems committed to playing out the string.

Spot said...

That's right! They went with an extra hour of comedies, so they only have two more dramas left, the soapy Reckless and Halle Berry-led summer series Extant. Neither of which is likely to replace their multiple aging procedurals.

Spot said...

You're too focused on the absolute numbers. Elementary is performing at 90% of CBS's most recent drama average. That's fine for a renewal. I think that Blue Bloods or The Good Wife would get the ax if they need to ax a second veteran for Intelligence. Not Elementary.

Spot said...

Exactly, well said.

Spot said...

I think it will be either Survivor or Elementary joining The Good Wife on Sundays at 9. I actually think Survivor would be a much better option not only because it would probably perform better on Sundays but also because I feel that Wednesdays at 8 pm slot is totally open to launch a new drama and is certainly better than Thursdays at 10.

Spot said...

I think they would be much better served by moving NCIS LA if that was the case and sticking with their premiere night plan. Doing NCIS-Intelligence-POI and using LA to stabilize that awful Mondays at 10 slot.

Spot said...

I'm pretty sure NBC is just quarantining Thursdays at this point. It looks ugly, but you might as well leave it all on one night, and focus on the other days.

That being said, it's amazing that things got this ugly this quickly. What are these shows gonna look like next year? The New Normal hit a 0.6 at one point, could these comedies go below that? Seems almost unthinkable.

Spot said...

I like a TAR/Survivor/CSI Sunday, but that's not very CBS to move two shows in one night. Maybe TGW slides to 10, perhaps even for an announced final season if a defined closure is useful for the Amazon streaming syndication deal.

Spot said...

Of course, they went with the comedy expansion precisely because of that terrible drama development slate. Similarly, they didn't go with it last year because of a terrible *comedy* development slate.

Though even that slate might have been an improvement for NBC. 0.9 and not even skewing young. Wow. Looks like the unthinkable Community S6 is on.

Spot said...

The New Normal's series low was a 0.9 I believe. I think they're also quarantining Thursdays. They're putting there Community, but as much as I love it, that's just more of the same, it's by no means an attack!

Spot said...

Yes, my assumption was that The Good Wife remains on the night. I don't see them moving both CSI and Survivor from Wednesdays, it would be too much uncertainty at once for such an established night. My guess right now for CBS is the following:
- Intelligence flops: Survivor goes Sundays at 9, The Good Wife Sundays at 10. The Mentalist is cancelled. New dramas launched Wednesdays at 8 and Mondays at 10. 2/3 new comedies launched, keeping the 3/3.5 hours constant
- Intelligence works: Elementary goes Sundays at 9 and CSI Sundays at 9 (or the other way around), with the Good Wife sliding to 10 and maybe H50 sliding at 10. The Mentalist and Blue Bloods cancelled. New dramas launched Thursdays at 10 and Wednesdays at 10. 2/3 new comedies launched, keeping the 3/3.5 hours constant

Spot said...

Actually, my theory is that, either way, both The Mentalist and The Good Wife are cancelled. Move CSI and Elementary over to Sundays, and launch new dramas at 10pm on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday. If Intelligence does well you can leave it on Mondays, and either only launch two new dramas or do something else with Undercover Boss or comedy hours. It probably all comes down to CBS drama development, though.

If Survivor actually moves to Sundays, I'll eat my hat. Nothing that CBS does suggests to me that they see Sunday as anything more than a low rated drama dumping ground.

Spot said...

Well, if only there was some sort of archive of ratings information we could access to see which of us is right! Maybe a vault or something...

Looks like TNN went as low as 0.7, once. Maybe it adjusted up in finals, I don't know.

Spot said...

I just think that moving both Elementary and CSI is a huge gamble for CBS. I don't see it happening. And Thursdays at 10 is currently a terrible spot to launch new shows for them. The lead-in i weak and incompatible and the competition is as fierce as it will ever get for them. Same goes for Monday at 10. I think they should,at least, limit their losses and invest in only one of these slots, not both. The Survivor move would be, in my opinion, not to strengthen Sundays (although that would be a nice secondary effect) but to allow a new show to have a good launching spot Wednesdays at 8. It depends a bit on how the spring season of Survivor does though. If it's a strong season maybe they don't risk it. As it is, I think they could do it. It was like moving POI this year. It was not about POI's performance or even wanting to strengthen Tuesdays (which again was a nice secondary effect) as it was about needing room for the 2 hour comedy block).


Also, I don't think CBS will launch 4/4.5 hours of new programming which they would need with 3 new dramas. I think they will launch 3 new dramas and 2/3 new comedies.

Spot said...

You're right. I looked it up yesterday actually but I missed the 0.7 when I looked quickly. I didn't remember it doing that terribly, jeez, it was awful

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