Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Spotted Ratings, Friday 11/1/13


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Since it wasn't the last Friday in October, NBC's Friday night lineup came back to earth. Grimm was down at 9/8c and Dracula took a steep 28% week two drop. I'm pretty sure that's still an acceptable number for Dracula, and this may be another situation where an inflated premiere creates unrealistic expectations, but another big drop in week three might throw the show into some question. The shows got no help from NBC's ill-advised attempt to create some compatibility with a vampire-themed NBC news special at 8/7c, as it barely pulled half of last week's Dateline  number.
  • Everything else was within a tenth week-to-week except for CBS' Undercover Boss, down two tenths and dragging Hawaii Five-0 down another notch. The night's most positive result probably came from ABC's Last Man Standing, back after a repeat last week with its best number in a month.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.4 28% +8%+0.1n/a 2/6 -30% +40% -30% 1.6
The Neighbors 1.0 28% +0%+0.0+0.1 2/6 -47% +43% -57% 1.0
Shark Tank 2.0 35% +0%+0.0+0.3 1/7 -13% +0% -13% 2.1
20/20 1.5 25% +0%+0.0+0.0 2/7 +7% +3% +0% 1.6
ABC:+9%-21%
Undercover Boss 1.4 20% -13%-0.2n/a 4/6 -7% -13% -7% 1.6
Hawaii Five-0 1.3 17% -7%-0.1-0.2 6/6 n/a -7% -13% 1.3
Blue Bloods 1.2 14% -8%-0.1-0.1 6/6 -8% -8% -11% 1.3
CBS:-9%-10%
Why We (Heart) Vampires 0.7 34% n/a -46% -55% 0.8
Grimm 1.5 38% -17%-0.3-0.6 2/2 -17% -17% -17% 1.6
Dracula 1.3 49% -28%-0.5-0.3 2/2 n/a -28% +24% 1.4
NBC:-29%-20%
MasterChef Junior 1.3 41% -7%-0.1n/a 4/6 n/a -10% +30% 1.5
Sleepy Hollow (R) 0.5 38% -33% -47% 0.5
Fox:-18%-8%
The Carrie Diaries 0.3 43% +0%+0.0n/a 1/2 n/a +0% -25% 0.3
America's Next Top Model 0.4 50% +0%+0.0+0.0 5/13 +0% +100% +14% 0.4
CW:+40%-7%
Big5:-10%-15%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

38 comments:

Spot said...

Which tier are you saying ANTM should be in? :-)


The big question for The CW is how do they want to tackle Mondays. Going all-new is risky for mid-season since it requires promoting both the new shows as well as Dixie & BatB. But at least they could have a longer, uninterrupted run with new episodes. Using Reign in a Monday move at least spreads the risk, but would the show merely run the same as BatB without the Diaries lead-in? Or could The Tomorrow People move instead or as well? I wouldn't be surprised if the midseason shows got Arrow and Diaries as lead-ins with Reign & TP moving to Mondays.


Other than BatB going to Friday which feels like a given, any scenario is possible. And the fact that The CW has pieces to make these kind of scheduling decisions is incredible after how last year went. My midseason schedule would be:


Monday: The 100, Reign
Tuesday: The Originals, Supernatural
Wednesday: Arrow, The Tomorrow People
Thursday: The Vampire Diaries, Star-Crossed
Friday: Hart of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries/Beauty & the Beast

Spot said...

Fixed! Thanks

Spot said...

I pretty much agree with your whole analysis. By the way, isn't Arrow out of place on the table?


I think I will reserve judgment on TTP until Thursday because as you've pointed out, last year the World Series weeks severely deflated the Wednesday combo numbers so I am guessing the same thing could be happening here but we'll only know for sure later. Regardless, I would not move it at all. This fits your old principle of "good, not great pairing", which means it shouldn't be touched for now IMO. It's not like Arrow is that great of a lead-in right now anyway.



As for Reign, I don't really see the point of moving it and have it fall apart. I mean, even if it improves a bit Beauty's numbers, are we really to believe the difference between a 0.4/05 (I don't buy that it would get more than that when it gets 0.6s out of TVD) and a 0.3 is worth the promotional money of the move? I have my doubts. There was that rumour that nobody seems to be able to clarify about it being a limited series. If so, I say let it ride the 13 episodes and leave it at contention at season's end for another season depending on how midseason dramas do.


I would move Beauty to Fridays, slide Hart down an hour and lunch the midseason dramas Thursdays at 9 and Mondays at 8. I find it incredible that they appear to have the resources to tackle Mondays this season but it really looks like that, so yeah, let's do it.


I would do:
Monday: Star-Crossed/Hart of Dixie
Tuesday: The Originals/ Supernatural
Wednesday: Arrow/ The Tomorrow People
Thursday: The Vampire Diaries/ The 100
Friday: Beauty and the Beast, Repeats, The Carrie Diaries, whatever


I think The 100 fits better Thursday against the female skewing stuff that is going on at the other networks. Star-Crossed is likely more female skewing so it should have less overlap with Almost Human which is the only other drama offering at the time. It premiered between the voice cycles, it could have a show (although I am not sure how feasible that is with the olympics around)

Spot said...

I agree that it is incredible that they are capable of deciding these type of stuff this year, it is such a huge improvement. I personally disagree with moving Reign and I would also swap the midseason dramas (see my reasoning in the post above) but other than that, solid points.

Spot said...

Fixed that too! Thanks

Spot said...

CBS aired a repeat of The Mentalist ;)

Maybe The Good Wife airing an hour later had something to do with the jump Revenge received?

Spot said...

Thanks!

Spot said...

That's 4 clear renewals + "Whose Line Is It Anyway?" paired with another half-hour + they'll probably squeeze out another cycle out of ANTM. That's 6 hours.

With usual 3 new fall drama premieres, The CW might need to renew only 1 out of 7 dramas currently in your Middling-Newbies and Bottom-Tier = 5 dramas + 2 midseason premieres.

Well, probably 2 out of 7, as with launching of a comedy block, they'll probably go with only 2 new dramas in fall. Plus perhaps 13 episodes order of Hart of Dixie as a spackle.


Bottom line, if we exclude HoD, I can see only 2 out of 6 remaining dramas renweed. And maybe only one.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I'm excited for its return, so I'm going to say OVER at 2.8 or 2.9.

Spot said...

Over, 2.6

Spot said...

Over. 2.6/2.7 seems very possible for a premiere, considering the promotion.

Spot said...

By the way, are we getting best case/worst case for this?

Spot said...

Is M&M in a better or worse position leading off an hour? I'm thinking worse, and I can see 2BG falling below this number, let alone M&M. Decent MNF matchup might hurt it as well. Under.

Spot said...

Early tomorrow morning. I had a hectic beginning of last week so I had to bump everything forward by a day.

Spot said...

This "new" thing is really odd. Is Fox also going to be promoting The Following as "new"? That would be kind of amusing if they did.


Anyway, over with a 2.7.

Spot said...

My gut was saying 2.5 so I'll stick with that and say under.

Spot said...

It's difficult for me to be a buyer on this Line. M&M was a perennial 9:30 show that was called up early because both an anchor show and a newbie were crashing hard and depressing the night. While I'm sure it got some good promotion last week, and especially in yesterday's NFL game, it's facing heavy competition from the networks plus MNF.



Under, though for CBS' sake I hope I'm wrong.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

While I like the idea of The CW getting into the half-hour business, I actually prefer if they used Whose Line in the summer. It gives that show plus a newbie sitcom easier sledding against broadcast reruns, keeps the lights on at the network, and would eliminate a low-rated drama rerun. WLIIA + new sitcom + Supernatural (R) would made a nice Monday night that prepares the audience for Supernatural's move if the spin-off becomes a go and The CW swings for the fences.

Spot said...

Over, 2.6

Spot said...

Under at 1.8

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Hater?Reign is getting the back nine. Unlike the TTP that has been dropping every week ,Reign was stable despite being shown on Halloween and it's lead in dropping...When Arrow dropped so did TTP.Reign didn't drop and the critical buzz it's getting,i won't be surprised that it grows in the following weeks.The CW loves Reign,don't ask me how just research yourself.When CW loves a show it usually last.EX:Nikita even with terrible ratings.No way The 100(Male skewing show) is going to go behind TVD. It will go behind Arrow if TTP doesn't stabilize.

Spot said...

I agree,Mondays are a mess and it's unlikely both shows are going to stay there all year.I am pretty either Star Crossed or The 100 are going to Mondays maybe both. Since The 100 is male skewing show, it is likely to go behind Arrow once TTP ends.Both TTP or Reign might get partial back orders so mid season shows can premiere.

Spot said...

Ya understand it's not

"When CW loves a show it usually last"



but


"In the past, The CW always had so many low-rated shows that they had to give 2 or 3 pity renewals every season"


?

Spot said...

I can't see Whose Line staying in the summer.
It's a hit for CW standards, so they burn it in summer despite glaring holes in a regular season schedule?

They're constantly talking comedy block ever since late in Dawn's era. So now that they've finally built a half of it, they suddenly back off? Or do it, but with 2 rookies?

Any running again summer broadcast reruns is more than likely offset by lower ad rates summer shows can get.

Spot said...

A 2.55 line? I'd buy that for a dollar! Over.

But seriously, I feel like there's just enough there to be cautiously optimistic. And maybe The Heat raised Melissa McCarthy's profile enough to bring people to check out a show featuring her. At least for one night.

Spot said...

I will go over at 2.9.


Mother: 3.0

Girls: 2.7

M&M: 2.9

Mom: 2.4

Spot said...

I will go 2.7- OVER

Spot said...

1. Why would you even call me a hater?

2. TTP hasn't been falling every week. It was stable from week 1 to week 2 (the apparent 11% decline looking ratings is the result of rounding error... if you look at actual viewers 18-49 the decline was virtually non existent, less than 1%, so that's as stable as it got). It then fell against the world series, yes, but so did arrow and supernatural last year. It may be that it doesn't recover this week, or it may be that it does recover. No way to make judgments until we know that.

3. Networks love all of their shows, of course. If they make you believe they love you one more than the other, it's either PR purposes or it's because that show is giving them a higher financial return, in which case sure, they do love it more.

4. Nikita's renewal had nothing to do with them loving it. It was renewed its first season because it won the battle against Life Unexpected (which had ended much sooner anyway); it's ratings were far superior than those of Hellcats, the other freshman in contention. It's second year it was a hard call between Nikita, The Secret Circle, Hart of Dixie and Gossip Girl. Nikita ultimately won it over the secret circle because it wasn't a newbie, because it had the inertia on its side (it was already on fridays, which was were TSC would go to if renewed), it had a friday factor,and because the secret circle could have been lead-in dependent. In its third season, it got renewed because of syndication. Nothing to do with loving a show here.

Spot said...

Sure, thanks! Looking forward to that!

Spot said...

New Mike Molly = Chuck Lorre makes up each episode's story, something that has never happened before.

Plus Molly drops her teaching career and becomes a crime writer so her character is similar to the one she played on THE HEAT.

Spot said...

Whose Line was definitely a hit for The CW, but I can't help but think back to how it fared on premiere Tuesday against the competition. Yes, that was an anomaly since ABC, NBC, and CBS aren't that strong combined on a consistent basis. However, there is value in programming year-round in keeping the brand fresh and aware to an audience. And having a strong program in the summer helps promote the fall slate.


If I was Mark Pedowitz, I'd have some sitcoms in off-cycle development to pair with Whose Line and schedule the strongest in the summer, either in the scenario I described above or Line/new sitcom/Line/new sitcom if there are two good ones. Assess from there: if they are strong, get the shows back into production for a midseason launch during 2014-2015. If not, try again.

Spot said...

One of these days, CBS is going to dump off 60 Minutes in these overrun situations.

This was the perfect opportunity, too, as they have taken some criticism over the Benghazi episode of 60 Minutes, which looks at least as problematic as the Bush National Guard investigation in the mid-aughts that led to 60 Minutes II being cancelled and Dan Rather jumping ship. In the meantime, they'd get the cheap win from TAR getting the direct NFL lead-in.

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