Tuesday, March 17, 2015

War of 18-49 Update, The Bachelor (Winter 2015)

Let's take a look at the winter 2015 season (the nineteenth overall) of The Bachelor on ABC.

Timeslot Lo Avg Hi y2y A18-49+ Label y2y Results
Monday 8:001.5 2.332.8 -9%139*hit +2%* detail

*- For this winter's War of 18-49 updates, the A18-49+ is based on a projected league average, calculated by applying the league average's current year-to-year trend (thru 3/1/15) to the final 2013-14 average. This should help make these numbers compare more fairly with seasons past.

Rating the Ratings: The Bachelor was up year-to-year in A18-49+ for the third straight season and is projected to post the fourth-biggest A18-49+ in nineteen seasons (and biggest in five years). I thought the show would be down in Plus just to even out from such strong recent seasons. There were certainly glimpses of that, both in the season's early weeks and then again for a pretty modest finale spike. But the lack of Olympics competition was ultimately too much of a factor to prevent a fully down season; in typical Bachelor fashion, it got hot in those February weeks when the Olympics prevented it last season. For grading purposes, I pretty much throw out the special Sunday episode that had to deal with an enormous SNL40, which results in a -6% year-to-year trend. But a -6% while losing Olympic competition still seems a bit worse than last season's -7% while gaining Olympic competition. Grade: B.

Here's the now updated War of 18-49 post for The Bachelor.

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