Monday, March 2, 2015

The Question, Monday 3/2/15: Will The Following's Ratings Get Scarier in Season Three?


In 2013, Fox's Kevin Bacon drama The Following became the highest-rated new show of the 2012-13 season, kicking off the year of the so-called "limited series." In 2014, the show got major exposure from an airing after the NFC Championship game but still disappointed when it returned to Monday, kicking off the year of the limited series sophomore slump. And tonight, it becomes the first example of what happens when a limited series drops huge in season two but still gets renewed anyway. Will The Following's ratings get scarier in season three? That's The Question for Monday, March 2, 2015.

The Following Last Season
4.4 (post-NFC Championship premiere, 1/19/14)
2.0 (timeslot premiere, 1/27/14)
1.5 (season finale, 4/28/14) 
1.75 (season two average)
1.56 (season two average excluding football premiere)

One interesting wrinkle here is that the show's biggest drama competition Scorpion will be in repeat mode tonight. That may make some difference, as previous occupant Sleepy Hollow seemed to fare a little better on nights without an original Scorpion. (By the way, CBS will have this favor returned to it on Wednesday when CSI: Cyber premieres against a repeat Chicago PD.) I'm expecting this show to continue slipping significantly, but the Scorpion factor makes me a bit more confident that The Following can get back to the finale rating on premiere night.

Over/Under: 1.55.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

34 comments:

Spot said...

Under with 1.4.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over at a 1.6.

Spot said...

Not directly related, but I think this could be a make or break night for the Night Shift. It's Voice lead in should be going down a bit, but both of its drama competitors are out of the picture. LA is in repeats and Secrets & Lies has a pilot encore. It can't ask for a better situation. NBC has kept a steady stream of promos despite the poor premiere.
Unofficial question line: Over/Under: 1.45

Spot said...

Over. Like I said before, FOX underachieved to almost an unbelievable degree last spring and this fall and this show (together with New Girl and American Idol) seemed to be the biggest victims of the hell that was going on last year. The other two are recovering nicely and while I don't expect a serial to be able to revert course nearly as well as a comedy and a reality show, this line feels like something it can do leading out of a strong Gotham and against a Scorpion repeat.

Spot said...

The Following was too sadistic for my tastes, and is a completely off-the-rails show. Haven't seen much hype for this season.

Under.

Spot said...

Over, even at 1.5

Spot said...

Ugh. It feels wrong to bet against Fox right now, but it doesn't feel right betting on this show. It's like watching what happens when a four-year flameout gets a sixth season. So my vote comes from the externals: Gotham will be a stronger lead-in than Almost Human and Bones, and it's the only original scripted option on since Scorpion's on hiatus.

Over.

Spot said...

I'm sensing a 1.5. Under.

Spot said...

Under.

That's straight up rejection.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Line is sneaky low, but during sophomore season The Following never failed to disappoint, so I have a feeling that trend continues

Spot said...

I think at least a 1.6 is possible for the premiere.

OVER.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Is anyone meant to be able to predict FOX ratings at this point?

I guess there's enough compatibility with Gotham for an Over, but I have essentially zero confidence in that. Anything from a 1.2 to a 2.0 would not greatly surprise me.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over at 1.7

Spot said...

Under. I was thinking 1.6/1.7 at first, but 1.4/1.5 is not that unlikely.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Hope the good Sunday that Fox had doesn't end up misleading me.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over


Not because the zero drama competition, especially since Scorpion and Following are apples and oranges in terms of tone, style, and content, and also I never buy the idea people just magically flock to another show unless two shows they like are on the same timeslot, but it seems way too low, and the network has been on a greater upswing after a disastrous fall and spring.

Spot said...

Under, I can't see it staying even.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I will say Under.

Spot said...

Under. Justification can be found on the Best Case/Worse Case entry.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Ugh. Under at 1.4–1.5.

Spot said...

Under. No way it's even week to week. The real fun will be how ugly it's gonna get over the coming weeks.

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Under

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