Sunday, March 1, 2015

The Question, Sunday 3/1/15: Will the New Sunday Series Be Well-Kept Secrets?


It's the first Sunday after the Oscars, which means it's time for the broadcast networks to start programming original series on Sunday again. It's often a multiple-premiere night, and on this evening there are three: the two-hour premiere of ABC mystery drama Secrets and Lies, CBS comedic procedural Battle Creek and Fox post-apocalyptic comedy The Last Man On Earth.

This was a big night a year ago, as ABC got a huge 3.8 opening from new drama Resurrection and Fox was very much on the map with the documentary series Cosmos. But I'm far more down on this batch of series than I even was on last year's crop before they happened. Two of them will have to self-start; Battle Creek and Last Man will both probably have lead-ins that are (perhaps significantly) smaller than the required number. Only Secrets and Lies follows a series (Once Upon a Time) that is likely to go over, and I'm not sold ABC can get the Once audience interested or make this child murder concept work where others have failed. But it only takes one strong showing for "Over" to cash. Will the new Sunday series be well-kept Secrets? That's The Question for Sunday, March 1, 2015.


Highest Rating Among Secrets and Lies, The Last Man on Earth and Battle Creek Over/Under: 1.65.

TO CLARIFY: "Over" wins if ANY of Secrets and Lies, The Last Man on Earth OR Battle Creek goes over the line, while "under" wins if NONE go over. 

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. All results based on final ratings rounded to the nearest tenth.

41 comments:

Spot said...

I see only S&L with a chance of beating this line and I got burned when I overbid for shows with no buzz last fall (namely the other triple question between Gracepoint, A to Z and Bad Judge).


So under.

Spot said...

That's sad, but..... under. Secrets and Lies might cross the line, but I wouldn't bet on it

Spot said...

It's October 2nd all over again. But unlike that travesty, at least one show has a good lead-in. I'd expect Secrets and Lies to hit 1.8-2.0, but I expect it to go downhill from there. What makes this show more special than Gracepoint? And Once will surely be weaker than in the fall, after its huge decline, and the lack of any major ratings-potential storyline. No Neverland, no Oz, no Frozen, no nothing. So really, Secrets will premiere okay, then will be dead and buried. I honestly kinda wonder what American Crime and Secrets would have gotten if they stayed in their timeslots.

The other shows...dead as a doorknob. Maybe Simpsons and Brooklyn get a rebound with Mulaney gone, but I doubt it'll be enough to save Last Man on Earth, and Battle Creek was immediately pushed away like a red-headed stepchild. I'm confused considering this show has two creators that have made two acclaimed series, but hey I'm not in charge of CBS, so what do I know?



Over

Spot said...

Also the whole aspect of a murder mystery/remake feels tired at this point, this feels too similar to Gracepoint (murder mystery remake stretched out to 10 episodes) and that was based on a more popular Broadchurch and that was just a couple of months ago.

Spot said...

Not going against the Oscar promotion. OVER!

Spot said...

It' a dead obvious under on Battle Creek and an obvious under on Last Man on Earth as well. Secrets and Lies is a problem though. I got burned last year when I didn't anticipate how huge Resurrection was going to be but on the other hand, and although this is easier to forget, I also didn't anticipate how low Red Widow was going to be two years ago. And Secrets and Lies feels more like a Red Widow than a Resurrection to me. I would be willing to bet on an over if it was just one episode, but since there will be two episodes tonight, there is too much for the audience to bail. So I am saying Under.

@Spot, can you clarify whether you will also count the 2nd Secrets and Lies hour if ABC denotes them as two separate hours? I think it is possible the first hour crosses 1.7 and the second goes lower than that.

Spot said...

I'm going Under. I don't see anything here that will move the needle.

Spot said...

I have more guesses of Over than anyone, but Under. I actually think Last Man on Earth has the best chance, and that's slim

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. The odss are in my fsvour! (Though it didn't work out for Gracepoint/Bad Judge/A to Z)

Spot said...

I misspelled a bunch of words (just woke up) so I edited my comment. I don't remember if that's allowed or not so I'll reiterate that I'm choosing Over.

Spot said...

Those sitcoms were obvious flops given NBC's history. XD.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over, just because I chose Under last year and missed it. lol

Spot said...

One may surprise. One has to, right??

My guy says Battle Creek may eek out a 1.7, or wishful thinking at least.

Spot said...

Over

Because I think both Secrets & Lies has a chance.

Fox - their entire lineup should remain in post-NFL blues = in 1.0 to 1.4 range. I can't see The Last Man on Earth somehow towering it a 1.7+, not even for premiere I can see it.

CBS - I also see ugly numbers in first 3 hours on this not football-fueled Sunday. But here I'm sure Battle Creek would ra

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

In order of least to most likely...

The Last Man on Earth would not have stood a chance at this Line if Fox were as weak as they were in the Fall. But with Empire's smashing success, Gotham's second wind, and American Idol hanging tough the network's more ascendant. Too bad that Sundays really haven't been for Fox. Really, the biggest challenge is The Walking Dead aims square at Last Man's target demo which I why I feel it's the most unlikely to make it.

Battle Creek is clearly the low drama on CBS's totem pole, evident when it and CSI: Cyber got a timeslot swap from the announced plan earlier in the season (or the upfronts). Vince Gilligan is a hot name, though, thanks to Breaking Bad and currently airing Better Call Saul. It doesn't face The Walking Dead, but is hampered by the low ratings floor that is The Good Wife.

Secrets and Lies has the Once Upon a Time lead-in, a lot of Oscar and TGIT promotion, and is aimed at the opposite demo (W25-54) than The Walking Dead. It's problem is the two-hour running time; if it was only one hour it'd be a much easier call. ABC's promotion has wisely focused on the leads instead of the concept, but so did Gracepoint...

Once again, though, we only have to be right once while Spot has to be right three times. The odds, more than anything, are influencing my choice.

Over.

Spot said...

Over. All three.

Secrets & Lies 2.5

Last Man on Earth 1.7
Battle Creek 1.8


I get 12 points if I'm right.

Spot said...

Over


Because the idea of all three doing 1.6 or worse is just depressing.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Tough call, but under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Well, I thouht one of them may have been able to get at least a 1.5!

Spot said...

Over but only for Secrets and Lies.

Spot said...

Over, although I'll probably regret it.

Side note: A two-hour premiere for Secrets and Lies seems like a weird decision. Are people really going to want to watch two hours of that?

Spot said...

It was in NBC's weakest day and the network itself was getting worse in terms of its comedy slate.

Spot said...

I think it is a scheduling deal. Once Upon a Time has 11 episodes to air, Revenge aired 4 not 3 episodes in January this year, and ABC no longer airs Hallmark Movies. They would have ended up having to air a Revenge repeat after originals if they didn't do a 2 hour premiere I believe

Spot said...

Over, I guess. Under is just too sad. S&L could do it (though Broadchurch 2.0 hasn't proven to be a good formula), and Battle Creek has a slim chance, but I don't see Last Man getting there opposite TWD.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Basically it's because they switched Secrets and Lies (10 episodes?) and American Crime (11 episodes?) time slots for whatever reason.

Spot said...

Gotta go with the Under although I am rooting for Battle Creek

Spot said...

Good to see you succeeding at this game as you did mine at TVMI! If the current forum allowed those Daily Game patches in user signatures again, you'd be the owner of several more. Hope you play Daily Game again soon anyway!

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Sorry I never saw this. Anyway, I think it's going to be counted as one rating, but I'll use the two-hour average if not. Hopefully they don't average out to 1.65!

Spot said...

No problem, that's what I assumed you would do anyway. Thanks for getting back to me!

Spot said...

Empire may have been well-promoted. I will say, though, that I missed all of them so they chose avenues that I don't pay attention to. I freely admit that I miss the boat on some shows in terms of watching but I'm pretty good at being aware of the big shows (past examples are American Idol, Grey's Anatomy, and Glee).

Spot said...

At least until this season, Revenge did have a "Whodunnit?" element of mystery. I agree that it's an out-and-out soap, though.

Spot said...

I would bet under...But the real problem is the small sample size. When your making decisions based on sample size of roughly 600 homes per major market, it's hard to call them accurate. How volatile are local overnights. In many market's. Nielsen is implementing audience modeling to ascribe ratings to people to who do not punch their buttons and some stabilization procedures to mitigate week to week drops through averaging and weighting. Basically Prozac for the ratings...eliminates the highs and lows

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.