Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Last Year's Ratings Predictions

If you've been following this year's fall preview, you know I pretty much predict every broadcast show that's on in the fall. Last year, I predicted some (but not all) spring stuff too. I thought it'd be fun (though maybe bad for my credibility) to see how close I was on my predix last season. I tried to weed out some of the shows whose ratings were really impacted by an unforeseen scheduling change, though that's kind of a gray area. I could've easily removed stuff like Chase and Outlaw which were really dragged down by airing burnoff eps on Saturday. Perhaps next year I'll stick to predicting fall ratings only to minimize the impact of that.

"Diff" measures the difference between my ratings prediction and the actual A18-49 ratings. They're ranked by absolute value; in other words, from worst predictions to best predictions. So, for example, Lone Star did 52% worse than I expected.

Show Diff
Lone Star -52%
The Event -52%
The Apprentice -46%
Undercovers -44%
School Pride -44%
The Whole Truth -31%
Chase -31%
Outlaw -30%
The Good Guys -29%
Dancing with the Stars Tue (fall) +28%
American Idol Wed +27%
No Ordinary Family -27%
The Defenders -26%
Law & Order: Los Angeles -24%
Parenthood -23%
Dancing with the Stars Tue (spring) +23%
The Biggest Loser (fall) -22%
My Generation -22%
Detroit 1-8-7 -20%
The Biggest Loser (spring) -19%
Hawaii Five-0 -17%
Chuck -16%
Law & Order: SVU +15%
House -15%
30 Rock +15%
Lie to Me -14%
CSI: Miami -13%
Castle +12%
Modern Family +12%
The Good Wife -12%
Dancing with the Stars Mon (fall) +12%
Cougar Town -11%
The Middle +11%
The Amazing Race (spring) -10%
Private Practice -10%
The Cleveland Show -10%
The Big Bang Theory -9%
Brothers & Sisters -9%
Mike & Molly -9%
$#*! My Dad Says -9%
Dancing with the Stars Mon (spring) +8%
Medium -8%
NCIS +8%
Raising Hope +8%
60 Minutes +8%
Desperate Housewives -7%
The Mentalist -7%
Survivor (fall) +7%
Who Do You Think You Are? +7%
Undercover Boss -7%
America's Funniest Home Videos -7%
CSI: NY -7%
Saturday Night Football -7%
Better with You -6%
Amazing Race (fall) +6%
Sunday Night Football +6%
Running Wilde -6%
How I Met Your Mother +5%
America's Most Wanted +5%
48 Hours Mystery -5%
CSI +4%
NCIS: Los Angeles +4%
Blue Bloods +4%
Community +3%
Cops -3%
Glee +3%
Two and a Half Men -2%
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition -2%
The Office +2%
Dateline Fri +1%
Family Guy -1%
Criminal Minds -1%
Hell's Kitchen -1%
Survivor (spring) +1%
The Simpsons +1%
20/20 +0%
Grey's Anatomy -0%

Trends and Surprises
Not enough people do this kind of thing for me to know if I did a "good" job, though I would guess pretty much anything within 10% is fairly good and anything outside of 20% is fairly bad, especially for a veteran show. I was within 10% on the majority of these (44 out of 77, or 57%) and that percentage is higher among veterans.

As is to be expected, the hardest thing to predict is the new show because you're starting from scratch rather than just playing a year-to-year numbers game. There were a few (School Pride, Outlaw, My Generation) where I had the general idea correct but just didn't pick them to flop nearly as hard as they did. Generally speaking, I was too optimistic in this awful year for new shows. I went way high on enormous bomb Lone Star as well as NBC's Undercovers and The Event, which I thought would do quite well. (Perhaps if I'd seen a screener, I would not have been so optimistic, though ultimately I didn't hate the show nearly as much as many others, so who knows?)

Among the pleasant surprises for me in 2010-11 were reality tentpoles Dancing with the Stars and American Idol, both of which only became stronger in the competitive landscape as other shows continued to sink. The biggest expectations exceeder in the scripted arena was Law & Order: SVU, which managed to almost completely flatten its years of declines. Much of ABC's next generation of scripted shows (Castle, Modern Family, The Middle) finished double-digits ahead of my expectations too.

The biggest veteran flop relative to expectations was the original recipe version of The Apprentice, perhaps proving NBC was right to unload it the first time several times prior. I also thought Parenthood was going to take a step up in season two which never really materialized except for the first couple weeks and the finale. Also underperforming (and perhaps contributing to Parenthood's struggles) was The Biggest Loser. Basically, I was way optimistic on a lot of NBC stuff!

No comments:

Post a Comment

© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2022. All Rights Reserved.