Monday, July 20, 2015

Cablemetrics: The Strain, Ray Donovan, Masters of Sex, Sex&Drugs&Rock&Roll, Married


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FX had a busy week of premieres, starting with Sunday's return of last year's freshman success The Strain. Its 0.78 was a new series low and 34% below last year's series premiere. But it's a cable world in which drops of that magnitude are pretty common, so it could very well still be in the upper echelon of cable dramas.
    • On Thursday, FX rolled out its newest comedy duo, the newbie Sex&Drugs&Rock&Roll (0.35) and Married (0.26). This was over 40% behind last year's debuts of Married (0.65) and You're the Worst (0.44), putting Married itself down a ridiculous 60% year-to-year. The only silver lining is that the 0.65 was miles ahead of everything else later in the season, so the opportunity is there for better comparisons in the coming weeks.
  • It's hard for -14% year-to-year to be considered disappointing in today's landscape, but you could certainly say that about the Ray Donovan premiere (0.32). The 0.37 premiere last summer ended up being the season low, and it had major heat over the course of the season (all the way to double that, a 0.74, for the finale). So just getting back to 0.32 isn't great, and repeating last season's trajectory will be difficult.
    • Despite the growing lead-in, acclaimed Masters of Sex didn't have that kind of heat last summer. That meant a similarly disheartening drop from last season's finale only added up to 0.13, down a massive 60% from last summer's premiere.
  • Some day, there will come a "What Matters" that doesn't mention Humans and Mr. Robot. Today is not that day, as the shows continue to do particularly interesting things each week.
    • After a 40% week two drop to 0.32, the rookie AMC drama Humans actually got the majority of the decline back in week three (0.44), making it more plausible the show could be a decent win for AMC.
    • And after week two and week three growth, USA's Mr. Robot (0.43) plunged by 0.16 points, putting it behind even the premiere number.
  • Additions/changes to the table this week: Plus is out. Once we get into the fall, the projected Plus will be much better anyway, since the other one would use the inflated early fall league average.
    • In its place are "Ep" and "Seas," identifying the season number as well as this week's episode number. The episode number is particularly helpful for sorting out the week's premieres, while the season number allows for any easy comparison within the rookie class. These numbers generate from a formula and may get disrupted by split seasons, so let me know if you spot errors.
    • Also added a few more shows in the middle of their seasons to the fray: The Haves and the Have Nots (OWN), Power (Starz), Girl Meets World (Disney), ABC Family comedies Bady Daddy and Melissa and Joey, and cheap Syfy dramas Dark Matter (Syfy) and Killjoys (Syfy).
FULL TABLE:

Show Net This Week This Season
Ep A18-49 Last Seas Avg y2y Proj Proj + Skew
True Detective HBO4 1.08 -6%2 1.25 +54% 1.52 90 56%
The Haves and the Have Nots OWN3 1.01 +25%3 0.92 +6% 0.98 58 38%
Ballers HBO4 0.84 +8%1 0.90 n/a 0.87 51 63%
Pretty Little Liars ABCF6 0.84 +5%6 0.86 -14% 0.82 48 57%
The Strain FX1 0.78 n/a2 0.78 -34% 0.68 40 60%
The Last Ship TNT5 0.69 +3%2 0.72 -34% 0.70 42 31%
Rizzoli and Isles TNT5 0.68 -11%6 0.71 -29% 0.68 41 21%
Suits USA4 0.62 +0%5 0.61 -19% 0.63 37 35%
The Game BET6 0.49 -18%9 0.60 -32% 0.57 34 57%
Major Crimes TNT6 0.64 +23%4 0.58 -30% 0.59 35 18%
Power STRZ5 0.56 +2%2 0.55 +126% 0.72 43 56%
Teen Wolf MTV4 0.45 -22%5 0.54 -30% 0.50 30 53%
The Brink HBO4 0.39 -24%1 0.53 n/a 0.45 26 53%
Girl Meets World DISN9 0.48 -4%2 0.51 -21% 0.46 28 30%
Mr. Robot USA4 0.43 -27%1 0.51 n/a 0.46 27 41%
Devious Maids Life7 0.47 +2%3 0.49 -23% 0.48 28 46%
The Fosters ABCF6 0.51 +0%3 0.47 -21% 0.47 28 51%
Falling Skies TNT3 0.37 -16%5 0.44 -50% 0.36 21 29%
Humans AMC3 0.44 +38%1 0.43 n/a 0.44 26 41%
Clipped TBS5 0.32 -22%1 0.41 n/a 0.37 22 45%
Scream MTV3 0.39 +5%1 0.40 n/a 0.39 23 57%
Complications USA6 0.39 -15%1 0.38 n/a 0.39 23 32%
Baby Daddy ABCF17 0.34 -6%4 0.37 -16% 0.36 21 63%
Melissa and Joey ABCF17 0.33 +3%6 0.37 -21% 0.37 22 64%
Stitchers ABCF7 0.27 -10%1 0.36 n/a 0.33 20 51%
Sex&Drugs&Rock&Roll FX1 0.35 n/a1 0.35 n/a 0.35 21 51%
Royal Pains USA7 0.31 -16%7 0.35 -36% 0.34 20 31%
Tyrant FX5 0.32 -26%2 0.34 -39% 0.33 20 37%
Graceland USA4 0.32 -3%3 0.33 -36% 0.30 18 45%
Ray Donovan SHO1 0.32 n/a3 0.32 -14% 0.45 27 39%
Proof TNT5 0.30 -17%1 0.32 n/a 0.31 18 19%
Murder in the First TNT6 0.33 +43%2 0.30 -33% 0.30 18 18%
Chasing Life ABCF2 0.29 +4%2 0.29 -45% 0.27 16 48%
Dominion Syfy2 0.30 +15%2 0.28 -46% 0.25 15 34%
UnREAL Life7 0.27 -16%1 0.28 n/a 0.28 16 50%
Married FX1 0.26 n/a2 0.26 -60% 0.14 9 50%
Defiance Syfy6 0.26 -28%3 0.25 -50% 0.23 14 28%
Dark Matter Syfy5 0.25 +14%1 0.24 n/a 0.25 15 28%
Killjoys Syfy4 0.22 +5%1 0.23 n/a 0.22 13 30%
Halt and Catch Fire AMC7 0.17 +0%2 0.17 -37% 0.16 9 41%
Becoming Us ABCF6 0.10 +11%1 0.13 n/a 0.12 7 46%
Masters of Sex SHO1 0.13 n/a3 0.13 -60% 0.10 6 28%

The Cablemetrics table can be sorted by clicking any of the categories at the top (and a second click will sort in the other direction.) After having sorted by a category, you can hold SHIFT and click another category to sort by the second category within the first.

These numbers are current through Thursday, July 16.

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