Monday, July 6, 2015

Cablemetrics: Intro, Mr. Robot, Humans, Scream, UnREAL Ratings


Not sure how many of you remember my old Cable Ratings Guides on SpoilerTV. It's hard to believe it's been almost two years since the last one, but the intention was always to relaunch it in a form that would mostly generate automatically and require less writing. You may recall that last year I briefly toyed with putting cable ratings in the full tables on the daily posts, but found that too difficult to keep up with on a daily basis. So I'm hoping this will be the perfect compromise: a quick weekly cable roundup called Cablemetrics.

This is like a "What Matters," a "Plus Power Rankings" and a "True Power Rankings" for cable all in one. The "What Matters" section will highlight only a few shows that had notable points/movements. The full table will look at this week's point for each currently airing show, as well as comparing the season-to-date average/skew and a projection of the final average (for now using the same simplistic models as in the broadcast Plus Power Rankings). Didn't really want to delay starting this any longer, so there will definitely be tweaks/additions to this going forward. Let me know what you think!

Please feel free to suggest additions to what I track in these posts, though I can't guarantee it will get added (especially if it has very low ratings). I'm gonna keep it to scripted shows unless there's some unscripted breakout on a Jersey Shore/Duck Dynasty level.

Rather than use the Nielsen definition of "week" (Monday to Sunday), these posts define a "week" as ending on Thursday, with each post dropping the next Monday. Hopefully I'll consistently be able to put this together over the weekend, and releasing on Monday will mean there'll be close to 24 hours when the numbers aren't obsolete yet. I'll still make mention of particularly notable cable stuff on the daily broadcast posts.

Due to Nielsen holiday delays, this first edition contains numbers through Wednesday, July 1.

WHAT MATTERS:
  • Perhaps the most interesting positive development last week was the rise of USA's Mr. Robot (0.55), which debuted at a blah 0.46 last week but improbably grew 20% in week two to nearly match its Suits lead-in (0.59). This could be a positive step for a network that has struggled lately; it's already a better number than anything last summer's renewed newbie Satisfaction ever did, and it nearly matched the pilot episode of USA's spring event series Dig.
  • AMC also may have a decent newbie in the science fiction drama Humans (0.53). This pilot rating was exactly on par with the premiere of Turn 15 months ago, and a considerable improvement over what shows like Turn and Halt and Catch Fire have been doing lately. 
  • MTV had the much-hyped premiere of Scream (0.45), a TV series adaptation of the iconic 1996 slasher film. The raw numbers were OK but it couldn't even grow on its lead-in from Teen Wolf (0.50), which was airing on a special night. 
  • I've always been hesitant to say that episodes released online ahead of time mean much for the Nielsens. But there were a couple intriguing case studies this week. We already talked about the spike for Mr. Robot, which pre-released its pilot online and then grew 20% in week two. And there was an even bigger surge for Lifetime's UnREAL, which was airing its first "offline" episode after releasing the first four online following the pilot airing. It toiled away in the low 0.2's for the last two episodes but surged to a series high 0.35 in week five. It may not hold next week, and even if it does that may not be the reason. But it was interesting to see those rises in tandem.
  • TNT quietly had some upticks this week that may help ease some of what has been a bad year-to-year start for their dramas. The Last Ship was the biggie. After a soft 0.69 two-hour premiere that was three tenths behind any previous point, it rallied all the way back to a 0.85 in its second week. And Rizzoli and Isles (0.63 -> 0.71) and Major Crimes (0.58 -> 0.68) also got some much-welcome relief.
FULL TABLE:

Show Net This Week This Season
A18-49 Last Avg y2y Proj Plus Proj Skew
True Detective HBO 1.33 -6% 1.38 +66% 1.63 82 97 56%
Ballers HBO 0.89 -19% 1.00 n/a 0.91 59 54 63%
Pretty Little Liars ABCF 0.80 +7% 0.86 -13% 0.82 51 49 55%
The Last Ship TNT 0.85 +23% 0.74 -32% 0.72 44 43 31%
Rizzoli and Isles TNT 0.71 +13% 0.70 -29% 0.68 41 40 21%
The Game BET n/a n/a 0.63 -33% 0.56 37 33 58%
The Brink HBO 0.55 -17% 0.61 n/a 0.56 36 33 54%
Suits USA 0.59 -3% 0.60 -21% 0.61 36 36 35%
Major Crimes TNT 0.68 +17% 0.58 -29% 0.60 34 36 18%
Teen Wolf MTV 0.56 n/a 0.56 -36% 0.55 33 33 52%
Humans AMC 0.53 n/a 0.53 n/a 0.53 32 32 39%
Mr. Robot USA 0.55 +20% 0.51 n/a 0.54 30 32 37%
Falling Skies TNT 0.50 n/a 0.50 -51% 0.35 30 21 31%
Devious Maids Life 0.49 +14% 0.49 -21% 0.48 29 29 47%
Scream MTV 0.45 n/a 0.45 n/a 0.45 27 27 56%
The Fosters ABCF 0.49 +17% 0.45 -22% 0.46 27 28 51%
Clipped TBS 0.43 -12% 0.45 n/a 0.44 27 26 45%
Stitchers ABCF 0.32 -16% 0.39 n/a 0.36 23 21 51%
Complications USA 0.28 -32% 0.37 n/a 0.31 22 18 29%
Graceland USA 0.35 n/a 0.35 -39% 0.29 21 17 44%
Murder in the First TNT 0.32 +3% 0.31 -33% 0.30 19 18 18%
Tyrant FX 0.29 -15% 0.31 -46% 0.29 18 17 36%
Proof TNT 0.25 -17% 0.31 n/a 0.27 18 16 17%
UnREAL Life 0.35 +59% 0.27 n/a 0.31 16 18 50%
Defiance Syfy 0.24 +50% 0.22 -55% 0.21 13 12 26%
Halt and Catch Fire AMC 0.18 +20% 0.17 -39% 0.15 10 9 41%
Becoming Us ABCF 0.11 +10% 0.15 n/a 0.13 9 7 44%

No comments:

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.