Thursday, June 12, 2014

War of 18-49 Update, Grey's Anatomy (2013-14)


Let's take a look at the 2013-14 season (the tenth overall) of Grey's Anatomy on ABC.

Timeslot Lo Avg Hi y2y A18-49+ Label y2y Results
Thursday 9:002.3 2.693.4 -13%143hit -3% detail

Rating the Ratings: Grey's Anatomy turned in its third straight 13% decline, marking another tiny decline relative to the league average. Taking it out to decimal points, it technically marks the end of the show's remarkable slowed-declines streak (2012-13 was -13.00%, 2013-14 was -13.06%), not that the numbers are precise enough for that to be statistically significant. I didn't expect it would be that close given its large drops late last season, but the show held up better in the spring, perhaps benefiting from ABC's split-season treatment. Should the show be penalized grade-wise because it airs alongside the very hot Scandal? It didn't really drop much in the weeks after Scandal was gone, but it arguably should've been picking up at that time because of the Sandra Oh send-off. I come back to the same grade as last year, but your mileage may vary. I still give the show a lot of credit for holding off the huge declines, but it will be an even bigger challenge as it heads to 8/7c next season. Grade: B-.

Here's the now updated War of 18-49 post for Grey's Anatomy.

11 comments:

Spot said...

Another reason I think Grey's Anatomy held up this Spring was the lackluster competition in general and lack of drama competition specifically. NBC was pretty much off the map with Hollywood Game Night, Fox's Idol/Surviving Jack combo wasn't potent, and CBS had similarly aged 2.5 Men & newbies The Crazy Ones and Bad Teacher.

The 8:00 hour may be a challenge, but Grey's gets to face the sure-to-be-weakest hour of male-leaning Thursday Night Football, fading Biggest Loser, and damaged Bones. ABC will certainly be boasting of the year-to-year timeslot improvement Grey's will bring.

Spot said...

I think it just showed the importance of lead out. Tons of people who watch Scandal will tune in an hour early to see Grey's Anatomy, but never gonna happen with Black Box. If Scandal had built up to its finale the same time Grey's was doing its farewell, it could have been huge for both

Spot said...

I foresee a killing blow coming in that 8pm slot. Certainly, the lack of an "Oh" bump, if you will, doesn't bode all that well. There's also the Mork & Mindy Curse, which even affects one-time hit shows.

Spot said...

Fair grade.


Grey's 8 PM move will be interesting to see, I expect a 20% drop at next season, which will bring it to low 2s, but ABC will probably be fine if it stops the embassment of being beaten by CW and the fact that the 8 PM hour was holding them at a shot to win thursdays, especially with a weaker CBS.

Spot said...

Last year Grey's minimal finale gain was somewhat justified as it suddenly had compete with the trending upward finales of The Office and American Idol, but this year it had a repeat and burnoff on CBS, filler on NBC, a half as powerful non finale American Idol, and Reign. No reason it couldn't grow

Spot said...

I get why ABC would want to keep it around, but I feel like a final seasom announcement could stop 20% drops. It could pull off an ER, barely down all year and up thanks to a big finale, if they do. Or it can pull a House where it trends down big all year and the final season announcement comes so late in the season that their isn't a big bounce. It's competing against two networks top shows (TBBT and TVD) as well as two solid performers (TBL and Bones).

Spot said...

Mork and Mindy Curse?

Spot said...

While this falls a handful of unscripted shows (plus Ugly Betty, and Who's The Boss? after a timeslot move to Tuesdays) short of being a 100% rule, over the last 32 years, virtually nothing, particularly anything scripted, has lasted more than a season on ABC Thursdays @ 8. The Curse is named for Mork & Mindy because, after being the #4 show on TV in its first season in 1978, where it aired on Thursdays @ 8, it was moved to Sundays, hit the four-year-flameout trajectory w/ some help from vast executive meddling, then went back to its original timeslot to play out the string. Adherents to the curse believe that ABC's mistreatment of the show has resulted in a situation where anything ABC offers to the slot, particularly scripted, is punished for the network's termination of this show. I believe the grand total topped 50 shows w/ the death of Once in Blunderland this year.

Here's the full list of post Mork & Mindy ineptitude from ABC:

Last Resort, Missing, Charlie's Angels, My
Generation, The Deep End, Flashforward, In The Motherhood, Samantha
Who, Miss/Guided, Alias, Jake In Progress (don't let that one Monday @
9:30 ep in 2006 tell you otherwise), Threat Matrix, Vengeance Unlimited,
Nothing Sacred, High Incident, Charlie Grace, My So-Called Life,
Missing Persons, Delta, Room For Two, Pros and Cons, Father Dowling
Mysteries, the 1988 reboot of Mission: Impossible, Knightwatch, Probe,
The Charmings, Sledge Hammer!, Our World, Ripley's Believe It Or Not,
Shadow Chasers, The Fall Guy, Wildside, People Do The Craziest Things,
Two Marriages, Automan, Trauma Center, Condo, The New Odd Couple,
Benson, Amanda's, The Greatest American Hero, Joanie Loves Chachi, and Star
Of The Family

Spot said...

Wow! I only thought the Thursday 8:00 curse was a recent thing. Great info, James.

Spot said...

GOOD LORD!

Spot said...

I actually rate the Thursday 8/7 hour during TNF as the easiest entertainment hour of the entire week. SNF doesn't steal much from entertainment programming as it is (even compatible Animation Domination does well against it), and TNF's all-divisional slate will have even less impact outside of local markets where the game would already be on network TV anyway. Bones is collapsing, and has final season written all over it. I'd argue the same for Biggest Loser too, especially after the last season finale - that could (in my opinion should) go down as that franchise's shark-jump moment.


Honestly, I think Grey's will be up year-on-year in the early fall (before reverting to at least its recent -13% pace when TBBT returns, but even that would be one of the biggest timeslot upgrades in the A18-49+ era).

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