Monday, June 16, 2014

War of 18-49 Update, Castle (2013-14)

Let's take a look at the 2013-14 season (the sixth overall) of Castle on ABC.

Timeslot Lo Avg Hi y2y A18-49+ Label y2y Results
Monday 10:001.6 1.932.2 -5%103solid +6% detail

Rating the Ratings: It was a somewhat weird season for Castle's timeslot; The Blacklist on NBC was far more formidable than anything Castle had ever faced on NBC, but Hostages and Intelligence were far weaker than anything Castle had ever faced on CBS. These changes almost cancelled each other out in pure ratings terms, but The Blacklist may have crossed over with Castle's audience even more than previous NBC occupants. Castle has been additionally impressive in recent seasons because of the collapse of lead-in Dancing with the Stars, but it doesn't get that extra credit this year as the reality franchise steadied the ship.

Usually I'd consider a B+ for down mid-single digits, especially when it's the show's second-biggest season in A18-49+. But I have to nick Castle a bit because it finished the season a lot worse than it started. It was actually +5% in raw numbers as of the end of the fall, but almost all points in the second half of the season were down double digits. It didn't seem to benefit from the return of DWTS in the spring, even though DWTS itself had a very good season. Grade: B.

Here's the now updated War of 18-49 post for Castle.


Spot said...

Castle inability to stay ahead on a year-to-year basis is slightly head-scratchy. I expected low points against the Olympics, but I didn't expect them to persist. At least the show was able to have a finale bump that was even with 2012-2013's finale. For 2014-2015, unless ABC tries to insert Fresh Off the Boat Mondays at 9:30, Castle should at least not have to deal with an albatross like a Mixology (R) lead-in.

I still wish ABC would put the show on ice during The Bachelor's winter run to air something more younger and female-skewing, like Nashville or an in-season run of Mistresses.

Spot said...

I'm pretty sure its ABC policy to give Castle AT LEAST one bad lead in a year.

Spot said...

Last year Castle had very easy competition from NBC from January-March with Deception. This year it had either the Blacklist or the Olympics. And the Blacklist was tons stronger in the second half than Revolution was. It is disappointing to see it go from up 5% to down, but it simply had harder competition. Honestly next year I can't see Blacklist, Castle, and NCIS: LA all coexisting peacefully. I could see the Blacklist attacking its younger viewers while NCIS: LA attacks the older ones and completely taking Castle out, but it could be possible Castle and The Blacklist could team up to take out NCIS: LA. LA hasn't faced a drama stronger than Supernatural on the CW for years.

Spot said...

I think that NCIS:LA's audience is far more casual than that of The Blacklist and Castle, so it will probably bear the brunt of the damage. All three will be negatively affected, though. I don't expect either Castle or The Blacklist to come out unharmed next season.

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