Wednesday, February 26, 2014

The Question, Wednesday 2/26/14: Does Mixology Have the Right Post-Modern Family Mix?


Tonight's premiere of Mixology after Modern Family is a classic unstoppable force vs. immovable object situation. The unstoppable force? Mixology is going to fail. I can't come up with any good reason to feel otherwise. It's incompatible with Modern, the cast is all no-names, the reviews are lukewarm to bad, the concept is a weird gimmick, and the promos are dumb. (Now I'll tell you how I really feel!) But there's also this immovable object: every single Modern Family lead-out premiere has done pretty well, even incompatible ones. One of these things will win out, resulting in this line being way off, but I have no idea which one. I'm trying to show some respect for the ratings history, but I can't help but feel this could do much worse than any of the previous shows. The incompatible ones in the past at least had good reviews (or Rebel Wilson).

Over/Under: 2.05.

22 comments:

Spot said...

I'll say slightly over with a 2.2, but this show is going to eventually hit the worst post-Modern Family numbers we've ever seen, I think. Wouldn't be surprised if it falls below a 1.4.

Spot said...

I don't see a new post-MF comedy sinking that badly right out of the gate. Over on this one

Spot said...

Over with a 2.1

Spot said...

Oveer

Spot said...

I have to say over, which I wasn't expecting to, but the line is just to low for me.

Spot said...

Over.
You say: "Every single Modern Family lead-out premiere has done pretty well."
And then so low line. Where's the catch? If there's one, I don't see it.

Spot said...

Over. Every post-MF sitcom premiered above 2.0, and it would have to fail HARD for that to happen.

Spot said...

I'm going to go away from everyone else and say UNDER.

Spot said...

Over. I'd be really surprised the other way.


Of all of the ModFam leadout premieres, these are the retentions:
Cougar Town: 4.2/4.4, 104%
Mr. Sunshine (yay): 5.1/3.7, 73%
Happy Endings: 3.9/2.8, 72%
Neighbors: 5.5/3.2, 58%
H2LwyPftRoYL: 4.2/2.9, 69%
Apt 23: 4.2/2.9, 69%
SFN: 4.2/3.2, 76%


Excluding the outliers (Neighbors and CT), that 69-76% retention is remarkably consistent. Even if MF is at its season low (3.2), 69% of that is 2.2, still definitely over.


Even if Mixology has the same retention as Neighbors, if MF is at its 2014 average (3.4), 58% of that is 2.0, just barely under the line.


An Under answerer would be relying on both a low MF and some really low retention to get down to a 2.0. It sounds awful, but not *that* awful.

Spot said...

...if How To Live With Your Parents (And Whipping Cords Will Learn You More Than Ropes Will Ever Do) can get a 2.9, yeah, this can at least come close. OVER

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

2.5. Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I expect 50% retention. So I am guessing under. Though last time I expected 70% rentention of How I Live and Modern Family had previous had a 3.2, but it jumped up to a 4.2. That 2.9 was still around 70%, but made my guess way off

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over.


Betting on a 3.3 for MF and a 70% retention, Mixology premieres to a 2.3.

Spot said...

It'll need sub-Neighbors-level retention of a much lower Modern Family to miss this one.

But the lights have been off at ABC for weeks, so I think it actually pulls that off! Under!

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Even w/ this apocalyptically low (by timeslot standards) line, I don't see any reason why Mixology doesn't demonstrate the ultimate fecklessness of the Modern Family "lead-in" and immediately crater to "pull me now" numbers. Under.

Spot said...

Under. 1.8

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over. It's easy to be a seller on ABC, but I can't see Mixology premiere a point lower than How to Live or Don't Trust the B.

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