Friday, February 28, 2014

The Question, Friday 2/28/14: Will Friday Night Viewers Dine With Hannibal?


In pure ratings terms, NBC's co-production Hannibal was the biggest reach renewal of 2012-13. After some promising week-to-week growth in episode two, Hannibal fell to very low-1's by week four. It got even uglier when it followed unwatched Parks and Recreation repeats in the opening weeks of summer. (The last two also went up against the NBA Finals.) But lower costs plus overwhelming critical acclaim got it a second whirl, and this season two Friday timeslot after Grimm may actually be a better situation. I think it settles at a Dracula-esque 0.9ish, but tonight's premiere does a bit better.

Over/Under: 1.05.

20 comments:

Spot said...

Over, at least for the first week. Then a hard fall next week.

Spot said...

Over. I was very pleasantly surprised by the first season, and its now probably my favourite show on network tv. I've been recommending it to anyone who'd listen since then, and hopefully good word of mouth, and significantly worse competition than last year, might help it to some good numbers.

Spot said...

It could miss this line by 0.35 in either direction and I wouldn't be completely shocked.

I'm taking the under.

Spot said...

Over.
Grimm usually brings in 1.3 when ABC and CBS are in originals, like today is the case. While I doubt Hannibal can be even close to 100% retention in subsequent episodes, for premiere I'd expect it to be around 80%. Thus I expect 1.0 or 1.1 today, and I say over because... I really don't know why. Because yesterday I said under and it was over, perhaps?

Spot said...

Over. I'm gonna watch the show for the first time tonight, so I want the show not to fail and get cancelled before I can get into it.
Which won't prevent it from doing so, but whatever.

Spot said...

It has been a solid week for ratings. Over at a 1.2

Spot said...

I've tried to be logical against what I actually want the past two days, and that hasn't worked. So tonight I'm predicting I'll get the result I want. OVER.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over - 1.2

Spot said...

Over. This shows had a lot of good buzz after the first season and should have great and compatible lead-in support, instead of some random comedies on NBC's deathslot against solid shows. If this show can't score a at least 1.1 for the premiere at least, I have no clue at all about what's going on currently. But then again, I'm always picking the wrong choice since the beginning of the year, so what do I know? lol


Anyway, I'm hoping for the best. It's a great show. :)

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Something to also keep in mind: the skew. Hannibal skewed 50% in the demo last season while Grimm is at 33% this season (last season Grimm got 40% but that average includes the pre-season Monday and post-Voice Tuesday airings). Maybe Hannibal's youth was front-loaded by the Parks & Rec. lead-in. The show is going to age this season so I think the low-1 trajectory will prove to be right.

Regardless, even if Grimm disappoints with a weaker outing I think compatibly is going to win out for this week. I mean, it did for Dracula as it way overachieved for its premiere even after accounting for the Halloween-related bump.

Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I'll say just Over at 1.1.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under, a 1.0. Grimm at 1.4

Spot said...

Over, because of compatibility, and Grimm does decent against ABC and CBS originals.

Spot said...

UNDER

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

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