Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 2/11/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Fox threw away the last two episodes of Dads along with originals of New Girl and Brooklyn Nine-Nine, down double digits, on the first Olympic Tuesday. It's a tough spot to have the Olympics arrive just two weeks after you air something post-Super Bowl. But after last week's results demonstrated these shows got no heat at all from that exposure, this seemed like a waste.
  • The Olympics were basically flat with Monday's rating, but that ended up being a big win in the 2010 comparison, as the first Tuesday of that Olympics took a major downturn. This 6.6 was +20% vs. Vancouver's corresponding 5.5. (Perhaps of some note: that 2010 night had to battle originals of Lost as well as a still-in-its-prime American Idol.)

OLYMPICS CHART:


FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Goldbergs (R) 1.0 31% -55% -33% 1.0
The Goldbergs (R) 1.0 37% -52% -38% 1.2
The Goldbergs (R) 0.9 40% -44% -25% 1.1
Trophy Wife (R) 0.6 38% -33% -50% 0.8
Killer Women 0.7 29% +0%+0.0-0.3 2/5 n/a +0% -30% 1.0
ABC:-40%-35%
NCIS (R) 1.3 17% -58% -10% 1.3
NCIS: Los Angeles (R) 1.2 19% -58% +9% 1.4
Person of Interest (R) 0.9 20% -57% -10% 1.0
CBS:-58%-4%
Winter Olympics 6.6 35% +2%+0.1n/a 2/5 n/a +244% +389% 6.8
NBC:+244%+389%
Dads 1.1 52% -27%-0.4n/a 17/17 n/a -27% +0% 1.1
Dads 1.0 51% -9%-0.1n/a 18/18 n/a -23% -9% 1.2
New Girl 1.3 56% -19%-0.3-0.3 15/15 n/a -19% +63% 1.5
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.2 53% -14%-0.2-0.3 16/16 n/a -14% +50% 1.4
Fox:-21%+21%
Movie: Attack the Block 0.2 30% n/a -78% -58% 0.2
CW:-78%-58%
Big5:+18%+90%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

4 comments:

Spot said...

Dads is dead. If it had held it's 1.5 it had last week and defeated both New Girl and Brooklyn 99, it could have been a midseason replacement if Bordertown tanks. It it hit a series low, followed by a series low. The show failed, but at least not as bad as everyone thought

Spot said...

Kuddos to Mr. Spot for nailing that Dads prediction!

Spot said...

No, it couldn't. First of all, 0.4 difference (between 1.1 and 1.5) over course of 18 episodes is 0.02 change in season average. Meaningless, obviously.

Second, it was never considered for Sunday lineup. It averaged something like 1.0 in M18-34. That's both damn awful, and totally incompatible with Sunday block.

Third, Dads are dead for 3 months already now. Why is it so hard to understand? Watching The Mighty Ducks movies much, perhaps.

Spot said...

Wow, 3 repeats of The Goldbergs. Paul Lee is certainly making effort Goldbergs' "balance sheet" looking nice and renewal justified comes May.

I mean, for comedy to return money invested in airing fees, it needs to accrue 44 rating points through 22-episodes season. Dramas and old comedies with expensive cast need even higher total, of course. Though, maybe I'm overestimating it for rookie comedies, so let's round it to 40. But 40 would not be enough - as it would mean show just breaks even, and because of opportunity cost network surely would ask for more. I'd think requirement for sure renewal is something like 50 points.

The Goldbergs are on 1.77 A18-49 originals average currently. That's bound to drop, but shouldn't by much. Let's say to 1.68, and 22 * 1.68 = around 37 rating points. That's way bellow my (arbitrary) bar of 50 rating points. Here comes repeats in play. Schedule 13 repeats of Goldbergs (if needed on expense of other shows' repeats) and there you are - if those get around 1.0 ratings, that's 37 + 13 = 50 wanted. Schedule 22 repeats and you're are at 60, and suddenly, from bookkeeping view, Goldbergs are looking better than The Middle (and way better than Suburgatory) that each weeks beats it in original ratings heftily (Suburgatory slightly).

Of course, show can be get renewed even when actually not making profit to a network. That is when the network is in dire straits between not being able to promote zillion new shows in the fall, yet not having enough shows actually deserving renewal. But those pity renewals are rare (outside CW) and almost always finish with show being canceled the very next season.
To be fair, if ABC plans to keep 4 hours of comedy, then renewing both Goldbergs and Suburgatory should be a no-brainer, pity renewal or not. They certainly won't show up at upfronts with 3 veteran comedies accompanied with 7 to 8 rookies.

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