Spotted Ratings, Friday 1/3/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• A truly unique college football clash ruled the first Friday of 2014, with a BCS bowl game (ESPN's Orange Bowl) actually having to compete head-to-head with another high-profile bowl game. Fox's Cotton Bowl dominated broadcast but pulled only a shadow of last year's 3.5 rating; it's partly because of a worse matchup, partly because of this abnormal competition. As predicted on Saturday, the Orange Bowl (3.6) was much higher.

• In the entertainment programming realm, NBC's Grimm and Dracula lineup returned to normal. The former bounced back from its weak two-hour fall finale and the latter regressed after an abnormal spike to 1.1 in its last ep.

• Meanwhile, NBC's Dateline had a season high, while several repeats (led by Shark Tank) did better than usual. And an episode after its first 0.2, the CW's The Carrie Diaries held up after finals with its first 0.4. For now, we can probably just say those points cancel out to leave that show at its usual 0.3, but some more 0.4's going forward would be nice.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 1/2/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• It looks like the premiere magic for Community has finally run out. The show came back at about a third behind last year's 1.9 premiere. The good news is that it would still likely get renewed with this kind of number. The bad news is that there's an alternate explanation; maybe this was another inflated premiere, and a sub-1.0 level is what we'll see moving forward. For now, it's still a far, far better option than still-crumbling comedies Sean Saves the World and The Michael J. Fox Show, which each hit their first point-eights.

• I thought I was pretty down on ABC's winter filler mini-series The Assets, but even I wasn't this down. It was hard to see this show getting prematurely pulled given its limited nature, but if it goes down into 0.5 territory next week, it could really put ABC to the test. ABC was also soft in the first two hours (though not nearly as much so) with the return of The Taste. Given its drops throughout season one, it was never going to be close to last year's 2.1 premiere, but this is still likely a bit lower than ABC hoped for. (Though the finals uptick to 1.3 helped.)

• CBS was also back in all-original mode, with The Big Bang Theory getting a bit of its usual early-year heat; it hit its best number since the season premiere doubleheader. The other CBS shows were also up a bit.

• Perhaps limiting these shows' growth a bit was a very strong Sugar Bowl on ESPN (5.2) as Oklahoma upset Alabama. This was up massively on the January 2 game from last year (3.3).

Spotted Ratings, Holiday Roundup 12/20/13-1/1/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• I'm not sure there is much of anything compelling to say about ratings on a daily basis during the holiday season, so I decided to just take a break. I'm posting all the full tables for those missing days now. A couple bureaucratic notes: 

The Question, Tuesday 1/7/14: Is a Tuesday Preview for Intelligence an Intelligent Idea?

CBS tried something very different in the Monday 10/9c hour in the fall, and Hostages didn't work. Now, they'll go for something more familiar with the slick procedural Intelligence. Since it's not that compatible with the comedy block, CBS is starting it out with a whirl after NCIS tonight. If this show's going to work, it should be able to ride its NFL playoff promotion to NCIS: Los Angeles-esque numbers. The slot is actually easier than what LA faced during the fall, as The Voice is gone in favor of The Biggest Loser, plus ABC and Fox have their usual modest comedy blocks.

Over/Under: 2.45.

The Question, Monday 1/6/14: Will The Bachelor Have Another Rosy Season?

Tonight's biggest broadcast event is the return of ABC's The Bachelor, which looks to follow up on a very strong season a year ago. Though the competition will get much tougher in February as the Olympics and then The Voice show up, tonight there's practically no broadcast resistance. The only major competitor is ESPN's BCS Championship Game, which will get a huge rating but probably won't have a ton of cross-over audience. Will The Bachelor have another rosy season? That's The Question for Monday, January 6, 2014.

Winter 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday

The new year means many new premieres, which also means the return of Best Case/Worst Case! This round covers only the premieres before the end of the Winter Olympics on February 24. Here are the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday premieres, and Thursday/Friday were covered last week.

If you're new to Best Case/Worst Case, here's what all the numbers mean.

The Question, Thursday 1/2/14: Will a Large Community Welcome Back Dan Harmon?

In fall 2013, NBC's attempt to create "broad" comedies blew up even more spectacularly than usual. While a couple of those shows live on out of scheduling necessity, tonight sees NBC give back another Thursday half-hour to one of the old "niche" comedies. Community is back for yet another season in the Thursday lead-off role, and once again it's accompanied by a much-publicized behind-the-scenes shakeup. Creator Dan Harmon is back in the saddle, and the reviews have been very positive. For a show that's developed a habit of premiering well and has an engaged fanbase, this could actually be a difference-maker. Will a large Community welcome back Dan Harmon? That's The Question for Thursday, January 2, 2014.

Winter 2014 Best Case/Worst Case, Thursday/Friday

The new year means many new premieres, which also means the return of Best Case/Worst Case! This year, the Winter Olympics somewhat complicates winter scheduling for the broadcasters, and a lot of premiere dates are still TBD. I'm assuming the still TBD stuff won't show up till after the Olympics (though I may have to do an emergency post if not). For now, we'll just visit the premieres through the end of the Winter Olympics, hitting the Thursday/Friday premieres today and the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday ones on Monday. There will be another Best Case/Worst Case round for the late February/March period starting the day after the Olympics (Feb. 25).

If you're new to Best Case/Worst Case, here's what all the numbers mean.

Schedules Plus, CW Wednesday

Schedules Plus is another innovative application of the historical ratings statistic A18-49+. I hope this will be the ultimate resource for comparing the evolution of shows, networks and timeslots over time, complete with ratings numbers that make a fair adjustment for the collective decline. Right now this only includes programs aired in the fall. Much more about the process that went into this at the bottom.

Like Thursday, the CW's Wednesday has remained pretty solid throughout the network history as the torch has passed from one successful anchor to a second. America's Top Model's cycles in the early years after the WB/UPN merge were the strongest relative programs the network has ever aired, though they never really used that launch pad very well. Now it's Arrow's territory.

Schedules Plus, Fox Wednesday

Schedules Plus is another innovative application of the historical ratings statistic A18-49+. I hope this will be the ultimate resource for comparing the evolution of shows, networks and timeslots over time, complete with ratings numbers that make a fair adjustment for the collective decline. Right now this only includes programs aired in the fall. Much more about the process that went into this at the bottom.

Fox Wednesday in the winter is the strongest average night in all of Schedules Plus, narrowly edging Fox Tuesday because Idol has been on Wednesday for the whole era. But the fall was much more problematic for the network, as no House-like anchor ever really developed. The network finally made a major splash on Wednesday when they picked up Simon Cowell's The X Factor, effectively giving them a "mini-Idol" in the fall months. But now, that show has been so beaten down now that it's far closer to the weak Wednesday lineups of years past than to its own former ratings.