Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Spotted Ratings, Super Bowl Sunday 2/2/14


WHAT MATTERS:
  • After many years of classic Super Bowls, 2014 threw us a good old '90s-style stinker, a game that was pretty much decided by halftime. (Or maybe the first play after halftime if you're being conservative.) I'm much more interested in the half-hour breakdowns, as this blowout will be particularly educational in how much "game quality" matters to the rating. UPDATE: Despite the terrible game, this year's Super Bowl still amazingly set a new viewership record with 112.191 million, going past the 111.35 million from two years ago. However, the adults 18-49 rating (39.3) was down 1% from last year's 39.7. I was going to put all the half-hour breakdown info on this post, but I'm saving it for a separate one later this afternoon.
  • New Girl (11.4) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (6.9) did just a bit better than I was expecting in a wayyy worse game than I was expecting; their post-game show lead-in was down 14% year-to-year. The 9.1 average for the hour doesn't stack up well historically, especially among shows that start at a reasonable time (New Girl began at 10:23), but these shows were also among the weakest post-Bowl shows going in. So Fox will probably be able to call this at least an OK performance, not that it will make a lot of difference for the shows going forward.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos (R) 0.4 23% -74% +14% 0.5
America's Funniest Home Videos (R) 0.3 15% -81% -54% 0.8
Shark Tank (R) 0.6 34% -61% +9% 1.3
Shark Tank (R) 1.1 38% +100% +120% 1.6
ABC:-54%+17%
60 Minutes (R) 0.4 14% n/a n/a 0.5
The Good Wife (R) 0.3 15% n/a n/a 0.8
The Mentalist (R) 0.4 18% n/a n/a 1.0
NCIS (R) 1.0 19% n/a n/a n/a
CBS:-96%-99%
Dateline Sun (R) 0.4 22% -88% +7% 0.5
Movie: Little Fockers 0.7 37% n/a -81% +33% 1.2
NBC:-84%+7%
Super Bowl 39.3 44% n/an/an/a 1/1 -1% n/a n/a 25.9
Super Bowl Postgame 25.5 49% n/an/an/a 1/1 -14% n/a n/a 10.9
New Girl post-SB 11.4 55% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a n/a n/a 4.2
Fox:+2425%+5144%
Big4:+154%-16%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

11 comments:

Spot said...

Minus the redactions, I'm right there with you when it comes to The Question being about a football lead-out. I'm 1 for 4 on the ones I've played, and I feel like I only got The Following correct because of its upticking history in the tail end of season 1. I really thought the niche quality of Fox's live-action laffers would limit the appeal.

Spot said...

Another great line, Spot. I sold way too low on New Girl, but hit B 9-9 on the nose. This shows how important start times are.

Spot said...

Heck of a line, heck of a line.
(Spot shoves me in the face a la Crabtree.)

I'd be interested to compare the half hour numbers with last year - which took a blowout trajectory pre-blackout and then turned into a classic - as well as a more consistently close game like the two Pats-Giants SBs.

Spot said...

The winner of the night is Spot, nailing that line like a pro. Congrats!

In all seriousness, I think the comedies did well. Hopefully there will be some boost carried over to Tuesday, let's see. I think that will be more telling on how well they actually did. New Girl had one of its best episodes ever last night IMO, it was awesome (I have yet to watch B99). By the way, did FOX promote the rest of its lineup? I've seen a promo that they've aired for The Following, but what about, let's say, Almost Human?

Spot said...

Fox aired multiple promos for The Following, Cosmos, 24, Idol and, of course, New Girl and Brooklyn Nine-Nine, as well as promos for FX's The Strain, Fox Sports 1 and NASCAR. There was also a Fox network promo that combined footage from multiple shows including Almost Human.

I don't remember seeing anything else, though. I was surprised to see nothing for Surviving Jack or Wayward Pines.

Spot said...

How high could an instant classic have gone? 120 million and a 50 demo?

Spot said...

Looks like *another* sitcom effectively pre-cancelled by FOX, then! And that's ominous for Almost Human if it got no promos of its own. The scheduling and network treatment says #bearchow, the ratings do not...

Telling that they're already promoting 24. CBS gave Under the Dome a SB promotional hit before unleashing it in the summer, and it looks like FOX are using the same playbook thus far.

Spot said...

Super Bowl XLVI managed a 40.5 with 111.35m. Kickoff this year was +12% on last year, which overall turned out to be right in the slipstream of 2012 despite following a blowout trajectory pre-blackout (and hence was likely ahead at kickoff, though I don't have the numbers for that), so I think it's not terribly unreasonable to give a hypothetical Broncos-Seahawks classic that +12% throughout. That'd put it at 124.71m (!) and a 45.3.

Spot said...

It's strange they're ignoring Surviving Jack, but not so for Wayward Pines, as all points we'll wait until July for its premiere. "24: Live Another Day" finale should be at July 14th. If they premiere Wayward Pines that same day, then there is exactly enough Mondays for it to air in the summer. WP has 10 episodes order, so finale would be at September 15th, 8th if they double up finale.

Spot said...

I do remember a montage promoting all of Fox, showing Mindy, Sleepy Hollow, Family Guy, Idol, and the channel in general, so that's something.

Spot said...

Or 15th if they take Labor Day off and then double-pump the finale!

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