Wednesday, August 24, 2011

The "True" Bubble, NBC

Now that I have a full (if not final) formula for True Strength, it's time to emerge from the depths of my massive spreadsheet and start actually doing something with it. I thought I'd start by examining the bubble shows on each network and see what True Strength has to say about the shows that got renewed and axed. Next up: NBC.

NBC Comedies A18-49 TRUE Sitch
30 Rock 2.27 2.22 +2%
Community 1.85 2.18 -15%
Parks & Recreation 2.40 2.07 +16%
Outsourced 2.09 1.78 +17%

Though the ratings for NBC's three "secondary" comedies were pretty wildly different, they are not "truly" very different. Community is vastly undervalued leading off in the lowest-viewed half-hour of the five weeknights. Parks & Recreation actually did slightly worse than Outsourced at 9:30, but it was close, and Outsourced tanked even in True Strength when put in a much tougher situation, as most new shows do. So... they got the result they wanted all along!

NBC Dramas A18-49 TRUE Sitch
Harry's Law 1.79 1.79 +0%
Parenthood 2.06 1.78 +16%
Chuck 1.73 1.63 +7%
Law & Order: Los Angeles 1.72 1.60 +8%
The Event 1.71 1.53 +12%

The averages for LOLA and The Event are way frontloaded as both came back from enormous hiatuses DOA, so those shows weren't really as on the bubble as they might appear. The other three shows weren't impressive, but as on CBS, it seems the drama standards were lower than the comedy standards. Chuck ekes out one more season, but these low numbers see it pushed to Friday.

NBC Unscripted A18-49 TRUE Sitch
Dateline Fri 1.42 1.65 -14%
Who Do You Think You Are? 1.29 1.53 -16%
Minute to Win It 1.37 1.35 +1%
The Apprentice 1.33 1.10 +21%
Dateline Sun 1.02 0.94 +9%

Wasn't sure what color to give Minute to Win It since I'm not sure of its status beyond this season, but it's clearly "truly" ahead of the likes of the disastrous fall The Apprentice run yet behind some of the Friday unscripted offerings. Though the American Idol competition had a lot to do with its struggles this season, it hasn't really recovered this summer. It's remained way behind the summer 2010 airings.

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