Monday, August 22, 2011

The "True" Bubble, ABC

Now that I have a full (if not final) formula for True Strength, it's time to emerge from the depths of my massive spreadsheet and start actually doing something with it. I thought I'd start by examining the bubble shows on each network and see what True Strength has to say about the shows that got renewed and axed. We'll start with ABC.

ABC Comedies A18-49 TRUE Sitch
Cougar Town 2.58 2.01 +29%
Better with You 2.06 2.01 +3%
Mr. Sunshine 2.18 1.86 +17%
Happy Endings 1.78 1.54 +16%

The renewal of Happy Endings was already a bit of a reach, and True Strength doesn't make it seem any less that way. Mr. Sunshine and Happy Endings and Cougar Town were all inflated by their lead-ins, while Better with You seems to have been a bit underrated. I should mention Cougar Town more clearly deserved its renewal when it was renewed. It averaged a 2.29 before its 2.5-month hiatus and just a 1.52 after. Which will show up when it returns at midseason?

ABC Dramas A18-49 TRUE Sitch
Private Practice 2.67 2.38 +12%
Castle 2.68 2.36 +13%
Body of Proof 2.31 2.09 +11%
No Ordinary Family 1.84 1.83 +0%
Brothers & Sisters 2.20 1.80 +22%
V 1.87 1.73 +14%

So this one basically saw everything above a 2.0 renewed and everything below axed. I don't think Private Practice and Castle were really on the bubble, but thought I may as well include them since some people bash on them for just benefiting from huge lead-ins. No Ordinary Family had a tough situation and might have done a little better than it was given credit for, but its numbers were quite frontloaded; it was pulling around a 1.5 toward the end of its season, and Brothers & Sisters was just a bit higher. Before I really started this, I had thought V would hold up better in a True Strength analysis because it never had a lead-in, but it also aired in a relatively high-viewing yet uncompetitive timeslot.

ABC Unscripted A18-49 TRUE Sitch
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition 2.26 1.95 +16%
20/20 1.53 1.77 -14%
Shark Tank 1.36 1.68 -19%
Primetime: What Would You Do? 1.44 1.62 -11%
Supernanny 1.09 1.22 -10%
Skating with the Stars 1.21 0.86 +41%

Not much excitement here, but just wanted to note that Home Edition is "truly" pretty close to the pack of Friday shows. Coupled with a likely year-to-year decline, I'm not sure it will even make much of an improvement on the Shark Tank/Primetime combo.

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