Monday, June 27, 2016

The Breakdown: Fox Tuesday in 2015-16 (New Girl, Grandfathered, The Grinder, Scream Queens)

It's time for a journey through the Fox Tuesday schedule in 2015-16...


2014-15MasterChef JuniorNew GirlThe Mindy Project87
2015-16GrandfatheredThe GrinderScream Queens72 (-18%)
72 (-26%)63 (-37%)76 (+1%)
68 (-31%)

Scream Queens was one of the top prospects coming into the season, but had a bitterly disappointing start. Still, its front-loaded average was good enough to narrowly outrate the comedy hour from a year ago. Given how low Scream Queens opened, Grandfathered and The Grinder weren't that disastrous by comparison, but it still made for a rough fall.

Fall was the only subset of the season that didn't set a new historical low, as these Plus numbers were still good enough to beat out The Rebel Billionaire and the very early episodes of eventual megahit House from back in fall 2004.


2014-15MasterChef Junior SpringNew GirlThe Mindy Project86
2015-16New GirlGrandfatheredBrooklyn Nine-NineThe Grinder66 (-23%)
89 (-10%)61 (-39%)68 (-17%)46 (-25%)
75 (-25%)57 (-21%)

New Girl arrived in early January with a surprising amount of life, coming very close to the raw numbers from early in its previous season. That momentum pretty much stopped when the clock struck 8:30, though; Grandfathered and The Grinder got even worse in their new timeslots, while Brooklyn Nine-Nine had a passable start at 9/8c but bled quickly from there.


2014-15Hell's KitchenNew GirlWeird Loners61
2015-16New GirlGrandfatheredBrooklyn Nine-NineThe Grinder53 (-13%)
67 (-9%)43 (-41%)60 (+2%)40 (+9%)
55 (-25%)50 (+4%)

New Girl has always taken particularly brutal drops post-DST, and this year was no exception. It wasn't really any worse than previous years, though; it maintained the positive Plus pace within this subset of the season.

The Shows

New Girl*
Scream Queens0.81.101.776marginaldetail
Brooklyn Nine-Nine0.81.212.0-29%83marginal-18%detail
The Grinder0.50.751.551flopdetail

New Girl: A situation where subsetting the season really tells the true story. The overall average was -2% in Plus, but it had a ton of post-DST eps. When you look at just the winter average and the spring average, they were each +10%ish, and in a lower-viewed hour. Overall, it did a lot better than I was expecting before the season, so I'm going Grade: B+.

Grandfathered: Clearly the stronger of the two comedy newbies, but still would've been a major pity renewal. It didn't happen.

Scream Queens: Gets its Tuesday 9/8c perch back since the night will be full of baseball/election preemptions. It was a really front-loaded average, so early-season y2y comparisons should be ugly.

Brooklyn Nine-Nine: It was -8% in Plus for the relatively apples-to-apples fall episodes on Sunday, which is in the C range. It moved into much tougher waters anchoring a Tuesday hour starting in the winter. But even keeping that in mind, the winter run still goes down as a disappointment, eroding from a decent 1.2 timeslot premiere all the way to a 0.8 low over the course of a couple months. Grade: C-.

The Grinder: Kinda reminded me of ABC's Trophy Wife from a couple years back: the critics loved it, and its situation wasn't ideal, but it should've done a lot more with it. Would've been an enormous reach, and it didn't happen.

The names in this last table link to the shows' War of 18-49 pages. Links with an asterisk(*) have been updated with the new info. Updates to younger shows will come later in the summer.

Check back tomorrow for this day's new Schedules Plus! Till then, you can refer to the old version.

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