Thursday, January 21, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: DC's Legends of Tomorrow, The 100

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Legends of Tomorrow (NEW!)

Timeslot OccupantsThe Vampire Diaries
Avg Orig Avg
0.50 0.56 0.56 0.56

In a Nutshell: There are few bigger wins on broadcast TV in recent years than the CW's superhero shows from DC Comics, and DC's Legends of Tomorrow marks the extension to a third series in the universe. This show combines a slew of supporting characters from The Flash and Arrow in a time travel-filled adventure.

Best Case: Synergy is hot right now, from TGIT to all those NBC Chicago series, and this show may be the ultimate example; it's bringing in a lot of star power from two separate and very successful series. A preview special did really well with a 0.9 after The Flash, and it should blow those numbers away for actual episodes on Thursday. The show gets close to Flash numbers on a regular basis. 1.35.

Worst Case: Arrow and The Flash have worked because of the iconic names at the center of those shows. Legends of Tomorrow is just an unfocused mess of second-tier characters, none of whom have enough of a following to open the show in any significant way. Any time travel-heavy plot risks veering too far into nonsensical mumbo-jumbo territory. 0.49, and well below previous occupant The Vampire Diaries numbers in the second half of its run. Dunzo.

Likeliest: I think this is going to be very well-sampled tonight, and I have a hard time seeing it drop so far that it actually goes out of the "success" zone. With that being said, it takes a really strong show to sustain Arrow or Flash levels, and I have a hunch this may be a little too busy/overcrowded to stay on that level. I think it'll be doing worse than Arrow by the post-DST eps, if not sooner, but still more than enough for a second season. 0.90.

The 100
0.51 A18-49+True2014-15 Slot
30 0.52 Tue 8:00, Tue 9:00
y2y:-15% -4%

Timeslot OccupantsThe Originals
Avg Orig Avg
0.39 0.42 0.42 0.41

In a Nutshell: The 100 was introduced after Arrow late in the 2013-14 season and proved a solid upgrade on previous occupant The Tomorrow People, then impressed in its season one summer airings. Season two was a mostly steady diet of 0.5 ratings, but that was good enough to get it one of the network's many early renewals at the winter 2015 TCA. It's back for season three in probably the best situation it could've asked for, founding a new Thursday lineup alongside Legends of Tomorrow.

Best Case: Legends of Tomorrow is a Flash-sized smash, actually a noticeable upgrade on the 0.9-1.0 average lead-in that The 100 got last year. The 100 is strong enough creatively to hold at least half of it (something it couldn't do after Arrow for much of last season). A big bounce to 0.68!

Worst Case: This show had a big lead-in upgrade from season one to season two as Arrow picked up steam, and that didn't stop The 100 from taking an above-average drop. It's certainly not a given that the untested Legends will actually be much or even any upgrade on 2014-15 Arrow. The 100 has been off the air for nearly ten months, much longer than the hiatus leading into season two (a little over four months). If Legends disappoints, The 100 could be utterly forgotten. 0.30.

Likeliest: Perhaps it can get back to the high end of its season two ratings if Legends really pops tonight. But beyond that, its new normal will be another tenth down from last year, with a lead-in that is ultimately pretty similar or a bit down year-to-year. If it couldn't pick up steam last year with consistent scheduling and a short hiatus, this longer hiatus will take another chunk out. 0.41.

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