Friday, January 15, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: Hell's Kitchen

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Hell's Kitchen
1.23 A18-49+True2014-15 Slot
73 1.55 Tue 8:00, Tue 9:00
y2y:-26% -18%

Timeslot OccupantsWorld's Funniest
Avg Orig Avg
0.85 0.67 0.67 0.79

In a Nutshell: The show that launched Gordon Ramsay to American stardom has taken a back seat to MasterChef ratings-wise in recent seasons, but Hell's Kitchen continues to endure as a utility player used in almost every situation imaginable. This will be the first Hell's kitchen season ever scheduled on Friday, and it makes a January return for the first time since 2009. It leads out of the last three weeks of thriving MasterChef Junior, then will pair with Sleepy Hollow beyond that.

Best Case: MasterChef Junior had a really good Friday performance last week, and the early weeks of Hell's Kitchen will get a bit rejuvenated as it benefits from that lead-in and retains almost all of it. Usual Friday 9/8c leader Shark Tank seems to be teetering somewhat, and Hell's is actually somewhat competitive with it even after Junior is gone. 1.15, very close to MasterChef Junior's average on the night.

Worst Case: A lot of shows have dropped 40%+ in a Friday move, and the already fast-fading Hell's will be the latest. Leading out of the crumbling Sleepy Hollow is a really rough ask, and Shark Tank is competing for the same general audience. 0.65.

Likeliest: Looks like MasterChef Junior is headed for about a 25-30% drop this season, which is really solid for a move to Friday. Kitchen has been dropping at practically that clip already, even without a Friday move. But it's coming from an already tough situation (leading off Tuesday post-DST) and it should get a boost early on alongside Junior. Still, it will be really tough once Sleepy Hollow shows up. It adds up to a similar year-to-year drop to Junior and a 0.89.

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