Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: Second Chance

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

Second Chance (NEW!)

Timeslot OccupantsEmpire
Avg Orig Avg
4.13 4.77 4.77 3.95

In a Nutshell: Fox's new drama Second Chance will go down in history as the last of the many, many new shows launched with an American Idol lead-in. (At least until whenever Fox tries to revive Idol.) It's about a man brought back to life in a new body and with special abilities. Another notable about this show is its many different names in development: from Frankenstein to The Frankenstein Code to Lookinglass to Second Chance. It gets seven Idol lead-ins to open its run, then will air the final four alongside Rosewood.

Best Case: No way this has an Empire type of ceiling, but you just never know what genre concepts will connect. And its lead-in American Idol had a very good opening week. The show might pick up some audience from people watching ads during The X-Files, as promos highlight producer Howard Gordon's connection to the show. It has really good retention of Idol and grows solidly from Rosewood in the closing weeks. 1.90.

Worst Case: Not all genre concepts get sampled, as Minority Report proved in the fall. Fox cut the order to 11 episodes; even if that was just to help it fit the schedule, they didn't have to do it. There are a lot of drama alternatives in this timeslot, and the Idol crowd will happily change the channel for them. It fits right in with recent post-Idol bombs like Rake and Backstrom, averaging a paltry 0.75.

Likeliest: This comes from the creator of NBC's Life, one of my personal favorite short-lived series, but the reviews are very mediocre. I forgot to watch it when it was available on demand, which probably isn't a great sign for the appeal of the concept, and I don't really detect any buzz. Maybe it's a bit closer to the latter-day Idol audience's wheelhouse than previous efforts like Rake and Backstrom, but I don't see it doing well enough for renewal. It'll have a lot more premiere night drama competition than those shows did and eventually end up in the same place: retaining less than 50% of Idol. 1.08.

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