Friday, November 9, 2012

The Question, Friday 11/9/12: Will Week Two of Malibu Stay Above Two?


I said earlier this week that I thought ABC's showing last Friday was the best regular-programming night any network has had on a Friday in several years. I'm probably missing something but I don't think anyone's averaged a 2.0 for a full night of regular programs on Friday since Ghost Whisperer and Numb3rs were around, and "best in three years" is hard to find in today's Live+SD TV ratings world. Now we're left to wonder if all of this has legs. Will week two of Malibu stay above two? That's The Question for Friday, November 9, 2012.

Malibu Country Last Week Week Two Drops
2.3 (11/2/2012, 2.0 Last Man lead-in) -13% (Last Man Standing, 10/18/11)
-19% (median week two for 20 new shows this fall)

One might expect that a show being sampled largely because of a name might be set up for a crash in week two. However, Last Man Standing is probably as close an analog as anything on TV recently, and it only dropped 13% despite having more competition in week two. If Reba takes that same drop, she hits an even 2.0. Keep in mind that Last Man had a one-hour premiere; in the 8:00 half-hour it was down just 9% in week two. Take that size drop and Malibu hits a 2.1. Plus, the HUT levels and many of the shows in the 8:00 hour have gotten a bump in this first week post-daylight saving time. I'm leaning toward 2.0, but there are rumors circulating that I have been too pessimistic lately.

Over/Under: 2.05.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

11 comments:

Spot said...

Was way off the mark on this one last week but I'm going under again.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

This is really hard to say because I would say 2.0-2.1, so you actually are making me choose here. I will go with a 2.0, but really don't know. I think Last Man Standing will go down big, I think the post-premiere negative reaction is real. It remains to be seen how much that brings down malibu. Again, i say that having last man leading the hour and not the other way around is a mistake

Spot said...

That would be under, obviously

Spot said...

Under. 2.0 sounds right.

Spot said...

Under 2.0

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Just under at 2.0. Still strong.

Spot said...

Under.

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