Thursday, November 8, 2012

The Question, Thursday 11/8/12: Will Glee's Post-Baseball Return Strike Out?


What sucks about Fox's baseball arrangement is that they have to "sacrifice" some part of the schedule to fit in all those pre-emptions. Last year, they protected The X Factor at the expense of Tuesday, and Glee/New Girl/Raising Hope were never the same when they came back in November. This year, they tried to minimize Tuesday pre-emptions and essentially had to derail X Factor to do so. The show that got screwed both times was Glee, which returns tonight after four Thursdays off and has to be praying it goes better this year than last. Will Glee's post-baseball return strike out?  That's The Question for Thursday, November 8, 2012.

Post-Baseball Returns Glee This Season
-17% (Glee, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11)
-16% (New Girl, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11)
-14% (Raising Hope, 10/4/11 -> 11/1/11)
-0% (Bones, 10/8/12 -> 11/5/12)
-22% (five-show Sunday animation average, 10/7/12 -> 11/4/12)
3.1 (9/13/2012) (3.4 X Factor lead-in)
2.9 (9/20/2012) (3.8)
2.4 (9/27/2012) (3.5)
2.6 (10/4/2012) (3.5)

I feel like what happened to Tuesday last year was a bit extreme, even though I don't have a lot of reason for thinking that (aside from Monday's Bones and The Mob Doctor coming back fairly even, I guess). But even if you think Glee won't "Truly" drop at all, you probably still have to take a little something off just because its X Factor lead-in is going to be much weaker than the mid-3's it got for those first four Glee weeks. It averaged just a 2.3 at 8:30 last week against The CMA Awards and a The Voice repeat; this week it may well do better, but probably not by a ton, against a Voice original. Because of that, I'm setting this over/under at just a bit smaller than the drop it took last year. (2.6 -> 2.25 would be down 13%.)

Over/Under: 2.25.

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11 comments:

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. I'm starting to think you're much too pessimistic, Spotty. Every time I've said under in the last few weeks on this game, I get screwed.

Spot said...

Early on, the safe pick was UNDER, but lately it has been OVER.


With that said, X is crumbling, so I will say UNDER (2.1). Though, this may be wishful thinking.

Spot said...

Over and quite easily I'd have thought. I don't see the break having any kind of effect this time and won't be surprised if it grows out of The X Factor.

Spot said...

Over, indeed.

Spot said...

Not much, but over. A 2.4

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Well in my defense, I was only "much too pessimistic" by 0.05 on Chicago Fire! ;) And I feel pretty good about this pick. I feel like its level was about a 2.4/2.5 (break-up episode's 2.6 was a bit inflated) and X Factor's struggles alone would take that down to a 2.3, even before adding in any kind of "post-hiatus effect."


With that being said, it does seem like I am having trouble recently finding numbers that split up the votes. My rule has (for the most part) been to go 0.05 below my actual prediction. Occasionally I go 0.15 below if I think people are really down on a show or 0.05 above if I think people are really up. Perhaps I should recalibrate that.

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