Saturday, October 6, 2012

Spotted Ratings, Friday 10/5/12: Frayed in Jersey


WHAT MATTERS:
  • CBS Friday became another of those lineups that went from a merely disappointing premiere night to a catastrophic week two. Made in Jersey dropped three tenths in week two, putting it below the numbers that got CHAOS pulled about 18 months ago. And at this point it's likely hurting the other shows in the lineup: CSI: NY and a tumbling Blue Bloods. I figured CBS would probably stick Jersey out for a few weeks, but I also didn't think it'd drop to 0.8 by week two. This result definitely turns up the heat.
  • The two all-stars of Friday night are now pretty clear: Shark Tank (rising to tie a season high) and Grimm (holding at last week's solid number). The latter helped pump Dateline to a rather surprising win at 10/9c.

The Question Week Four Results


Here are the results and individual standings through three weeks of the ratings prediction game The Question:

Friday, October 5, 2012

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/4/12


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The two new dramas each took typical-ish drops in week two, though the finals changed the picture somewhat. Last Resort adjusted up and heroically gave the win to the vast majority of The Question players. (And many of you had the 1.9 exactly!) It's still not a great result, but it's now significantly ahead of the Charlie's Angels/Missing paces, so it's a pretty tough call right now. The finals drop makes Elementary genuinely disappointing, especially since the rest of the CBS evening was more or less even with last week.
  • At 9/8c, a 14% post-inflated premiere drop from Grey's Anatomy meant good tidings for almost all other occupants. Competing Person of Interest, Glee, The Office and Parks and Recreation were slightly up week-to-week.
  • NBC brought back 30 Rock for its final season in weak fashion, down by 22% year-to-year. But at least it didn't seem to damage the rest of the already weak lineup.
  • The usual beasts of Thursday cable weren't so beastly on this night. Thursday Night Football (2.6) had its worst result of the season by far, while Jersey Shore (2.5) began its final season a shadow of its former self. It was down more than a third from the winter 2012 premiere and the Shore's weakest result since early season two.
  • The CW mercifully ended its summer season with The Next posting just its second 0.2 ever on finale night.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

The Question, Thursday 10/4/12: Will Last Resort Sink or Swim?


The 2.2 demo for the premiere of Last Resort invited plenty of comparisons to ABC's two drama occupants in this timeslot last year. But the dirty little secret about Charlie's Angels and Missing is that week one wasn't really what killed those shows; it was the 20%+ drop in week two. If those 2.1 premieres had turned into series settling somewhere in the upper 1's, that just may have been enough in a brutal timeslot where ABC can't possibly expect much. Tonight should tell us a decent amount about just how long the show will last. Will Last Resort sink or swim? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 3, 2012.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/3/12


WHAT MATTERS:
  • It was an extremely atypical Wednesday due to a presidential debate on each of the big four networks starting at 9/8c. The debate preliminarily scored in the very general 3.0 A18-49 vicinity on each of the big four networks, with NBC doing a little better than the others, but these numbers won't count in final averages. The 10:30 post-debate analysis numbers were released in finals and give you some sense of how the networks lined up relatively speaking.
  • But the networks were still in the entertainment programming game in the 8:00 hour, where ABC's The Middle and The Neighbors had the only really bad news. I figured Modern Family's absence would hurt the block as a whole, but even my line underestimated the extent of that. And The Neighbors could of course blame a big chunk of its drop on the transition from a Modern Family to a The Middle lead-in. Let's see what happens next week.
  • NBC was probably best poised to benefit from debate pre-tune since they're the only network for whom the debate did a lot better than regular 9:00 programming. They saw Animal Practice drop a tenth and Guys with Kids become just the second show of the season to stay even in week two. But, again, I'm not reading a ton into this rather atypical situation.
  • The CW's premiere week continued with an even year-to-year return from Supernatural. If it's possible for an even year-to-year premiere to be disappointing in this day and age, this would be it, as it was set up well with a move from Friday to Wednesday and facing a big-four simulcast. But next week's Arrow should provide more lead-in help than the Oh Sit! finale.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

The Question, Wednesday 10/3/12: How Neighborly is the 8:30 Timeslot?


In a very underwhelming traditional premiere week for new show debuts, the biggest of the week raw numbers-wise was one of the most critically-loathed shows of them all: ABC's comedy The Neighbors, airing after megahit Modern Family. But premiering the biggest is no guarantee of success, as the biggest premiere week premiere two years ago ($#!* My Dad Says) can attest. And The Neighbors won't even have the long-term lead-in support that Bleep had; instead, it moves to the 8:30 slot tonight and follows much more middling The Middle. How neighborly is the 8:30 slot for The Neighbors? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 3, 2012.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 10/2/12: Bluesday


WHAT MATTERS:
  • If Fox's Tuesday comedy lineup was a disappointment last week, it was pretty close to disaster this week. New Girl held up, but Raising Hope came back only about equal to its post-DST 8:00 level last year. Newbies Ben and Kate and The Mindy Project each shed 20%+; B&K actually has a slightly higher prelim True2 score than Mindy now that it has a worse lead-in, but that's just splitting hairs; they're both not looking that promising.
  • CBS saw already modest Vegas follow up last week's big drop at the half with a big 20% drop in week two, while last week's strong NCIS pair shed 10%ish apiece.
  • NBC began the night with a The Voice clips show that only got about 70% of the typical blind auditions numbers. That led to 15-20% drops for recently back-nined Go On and The New Normal.
  • Round out the big four ugliness with ABC, where Private Practice dropped 16% in week two.
  • The CW joined the 2012-13 entertainment programming game with the second season premiere of Hart of Dixie, which was down a tick from the year-ago series premiere but better than any of its results in 2012. But that was of no help to summer leftover The Next on a special night.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/1/12


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Week two's not really beginning any better than week one. Most of the returnees were reliably down in the general vicinity of two tenths from premiere levels.
  • One noticeable exception: a widening of the gap in the race between The Voice, which ended up gaining a bit vs. everyone else's week twos, and Dancing with the Stars, which took a 16% week two plummet to downright horrifying levels. Like the premiere, it was down nearly forty percent year-to-year! The ABC troubles continued at 10/9c, where Castle dipped behind rallying Hawaii Five-0.
  • The already surely doomed Partners (2.1, down 13%) and "sorry" The Mob Doctor (1.0, down 23%) are... well, still surely doomed. Revolution came down a bit more but still looks pretty good. And NBC's Monday was amazingly up even more year-to-year than on premiere Monday when it went +125%. NBC made its much-rumored three-way pickup of Revolution, Go On and The New Normal yesterday.
  • The CW ended up getting pretty good numbers from what they label the start of their 2012-13 season, the iHeartRadio Music Festival special. It nearly tripled up The LA Complex.
  • ESPN's had stellar Bears/Cowboys matchup scored a season high for Monday Night Football (6.8) even though the game ended up being a blowout.

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