Monday, August 8, 2016

The Breakdown: ABC Friday in 2015-16 (Last Man Standing, Dr. Ken, Shark Tank, 20/20)




It's time for a journey through the ABC Friday schedule in 2015-16...


fall

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2014-15Last Man StandingCristelaShark Tank20/2086
756111080
68
2015-16Last Man StandingDr. KenShark Tank20/2091 (+6%)
86 (+15%)85 (+39%)107 (-3%)81 (+1%)
85 (+25%)
VsAvg+48%+53%+21%+41%
Rank1/152/151/151/15

After a somewhat soft 1.1 premiere, Last Man Standing immediately perked up and stayed on its blazing 2014-15 pace through the fall, perhaps getting some additional bump from the association with its strongest lead-out yet. Dr. Ken started two tenths ahead of the Cristela premiere in raw numbers and held up at least as well post-premiere. But the heat in the 8:00 hour didn't translate to the rest of the night, as Shark Tank was down a touch in Plus.

winter

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2014-15Last Man StandingCristelaShark Tank20/2090
816211978
72
2015-16Last Man StandingDr. KenShark Tank20/2083 (-7%)
82 (+1%)71 (+14%)100 (-16%)74 (-6%)
77 (+7%)
VsAvg+25%+37%+6%+23%
Rank3/153/154/153/15

Beyond the fall, Last Man was much closer to even in Plus, and Dr. Ken's thrashing of Cristela slowed down as well (but was still pretty pronounced). But the actual bad news came at 9/8c, where Shark Tank seemingly fell off a cliff after the new year. It was below 1.5 in its first few episodes of the new year, and considering it perked up to 2.0ish in that period a year ago, it made for some ugly comparisons.

spring

Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2014-15Last Man StandingCristelaShark Tank20/2075
71549865
63
2015-16Last Man StandingDr. KenShark Tank20/2077 (+2%)
74 (+3%)65 (+20%)88 (-11%)73 (+12%)
70 (+11%)
VsAvg+29%+36%+14%+26%
Rank1/154/152/152/15

Shark Tank had another soft run in the spring, mostly hanging in the low-1's. But the comedies held up pretty well in their three post-DST episodes in April, and 20/20 actually had improved retention in this part of the year.

The Shows

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
Last Man Standing*1.01.201.3-6%82hit(Fri)+9%detail
Dr. Ken0.91.111.576hit(Fri)detail
Shark Tank*1.11.421.7-22%98hit(Fri)-10%detail
20/200.71.111.7-12%76hit(Fri)+1%detail

Last Man Standing: This show kinda reminded me of Arrow, where it seemingly had about a year of major growth, then slowed down to nearly even in Plus beyond the fall. But it still makes for another historically strong season overall. It may have to keep pulling off this kind of growth to keep surviving, because ABC insists on going down to the wire in the negotiations. Grade: B+.

Dr. Ken: After years of shuffling through 8:30 occupants, ABC finally found the post-LMS ratings level it was seeking in Dr. Ken. It was over 25% ahead of Cristela's Plus from last year, and even beat the previous gold standard Malibu Country by double digits.

Shark Tank: Two years ago, Shark Tank became the first Friday show in over a decade to beat the league average. But Tank couldn't make it three years in a row in 2015-16, with a series of underwhelming results especially after the new year. Grade: C.

20/20: In light of Shark Tank's struggles, even a tiny uptick in Plus is good. Grade: B.

The names in this last table link to the shows' War of 18-49 pages. Links with an asterisk(*) have been updated with the new info. Updates to younger shows will come later in the summer.

Check back tomorrow for this day's new Schedules Plus! Till then, you can refer to the old version.

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