Winter: The Middle/Better with You (ABC) vs. LIVE TO DANCE (CBS, 1/5) vs. Minute to Win It (NBC, 1/5) vs. American Idol (Fox, 1/19) vs. America's Next Top Model (The CW, 2/23)
Spring: The Middle/Better with You (ABC) vs. Survivor (CBS, 2/16) vs. Minute to Win It (NBC) vs. American Idol (Fox) vs. America's Next Top Model (The CW)
Notes: Three years ago, there was a Drew Carey game show called Power of 10 that I really liked and that served as Carey's audition for the Price is Right job. It had an OK run in summer 2007, then CBS scheduled it in this hour in midseason 2008, where it got absolutely crushed against a reality gauntlet of Idol, Deal or No Deal, Wife Swap, and Top Model and was never seen again. If I were a fan of NBC's Minute to Win It, I think I'd be similarly worried. That show is a bit more established than Power of 10 was, but it's still one reality-heavy hour.
Winter: Modern Family/MR. SUNSHINE (ABC, 2/9) vs. Criminal Minds (CBS) vs. Chase (NBC, 1/12) vs. Human Target (Fox, 1/5) vs. SHEDDING FOR THE WEDDING (The CW, 2/23)
Spring: Modern Family/Cougar Town (ABC, 4/13) vs. Criminal Minds (CBS) vs. AMERICA'S NEXT GREAT RESTAURANT (NBC, 3/16) vs. American Idol (2/16) and Idol/BREAKING IN (Fox, 4/6) vs. Shedding for the Wedding (The CW)
Notes: Just as I'd worry about Minute to Win It because a similar show in that situation failed, I'd also worry about the already pretty much dead Chase because of NBC's major struggles the last time they threw a modest-at-best and unproven procedural into this fire. (That was another fave of mine, Life in 2009.) Will Restaurant manage to fare any better than yet another similar show, NBC's Chopping Block in 2009? Continuing this "definition of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting different results" trend, there's Shedding for the Wedding, which looks to defy the increasingly long line of reality failures in the post-Top Model slot on the CDub.
Winter: OFF THE MAP (ABC, 1/12) vs. Blue Bloods (CBS, 1/19) vs. Law & Order: SVU (NBC, 1/5)
Spring: HAPPY ENDINGS/Modern Family (R) (ABC, 4/13) vs. Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior (CBS, 2/16) vs. Law & Order: SVU (NBC)
Cable: South Park (Comedy Central, 4/27), Justified (FX, 2/9), Are we There Yet? (TBS, 1/5), Hot in Cleveland/RETIRED AT 35 (TV Land, 1/19)
Notes: Talk about a lot of upheaval. I don't want to say this too much because I'm afraid of being humiliated when it magically premieres hugely at 10:00, but don't expect some kind of massive bounce for SVU due to it being "a 10:00 show," especially considering it'll likely never have much of a lead-in. It went up two freakin' ticks last year. Maybe it's just declining because it's been around for ages and that's what shows do. Shrug.
Bold indicates timeslot changes; ALL CAPS indicate this midseason's series premieres
All my other Midseason Matchups posts: Monday | Tuesday | Thursday | Friday | Sunday