Monday, December 27, 2010

Midseason Matchups 2011, Monday


Winter: The Bachelor (ABC, 1/3) vs. How I Met Your Mother/Rules of Engagement (CBS) vs. Chuck (NBC) vs. House (Fox) vs. 90210 (CW)

Spring: Dancing with the Stars (ABC, 3/21) vs. How I Met Your Mother/MAD LOVE (CBS, 2/21) vs. Chuck (NBC) vs. House (Fox) vs. 90210 (CW)

Cable: Pretty Little Liars (ABC Family, 1/3)

Notes: This is one of primetime's most stable hours, but keep an eye on 90210. Not that it's had a particularly strong ratings season anyway (0.95 A18-49, 1.85 W18-34 averages to date), but in the winter it gets hit with the women 18-34 double-whammie of The Bachelor and Pretty Little Liars (which, by the second half of its initial run, was usually doing slightly better than 90210 has this season). Could get even uglier.


Winter: The Bachelor (ABC, 1/3) vs. Two and a Half Men/Mike & Molly (CBS) vs. THE CAPE (NBC, 1/17) vs. Lie to Me and THE CHICAGO CODE (Fox, 2/7) vs. Gossip Girl (CW)

Spring: Dancing with the Stars (ABC, 3/21) vs. Two and a Half Men/Mike & Molly (CBS) vs. The Event (NBC, 2/28) vs. THE CHICAGO CODE (Fox, 2/7) vs. Gossip Girl (CW)

Cable: Greek (ABC Family, 1/3), American Pickers (History), Being Human (Syfy, 1/17), WWE Raw (USA)

Notes: It's hard to feel optimistic about anything coming out of NBC drama development, though The Cape at least gets a three-week head start on its Fox drama newbie competition. However, Code has a much bigger lead-in and premieres the day after the Super Bowl, during which it should get some heavily-viewed promotion.


Winter: Castle (ABC) vs. Hawaii Five-0 (CBS) vs. HARRY'S LAW (NBC, 1/17)

Spring: Castle (ABC) vs. Hawaii Five-0 (CBS) vs. Parenthood (NBC, 3/7)

Cable: Pawn Stars (History), SKINS (MTV, 1/17) 

Notes: I'm an unapologetic David E. Kelley fan, so I'm hoping for good things from Harry's Law. I also like Parenthood. But it's a tough hill to climb just to manage anything better than 3rd place against Five-0 (3.12 A18-49 average to date) and big lead-in-infused Castle (2.58 A18-49 average to date).

Bold indicates timeslot changes; ALL CAPS indicate this midseason's series premieres

All my other Midseason Matchups posts: Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Sunday


Anonymous said...

It's worth noting that when Castle had a MIDDLE rerun at a 2.2, it got a 2.5 which is what seems to be its own core audience. Even that week when ABC was virtually audience less from 8-10, with SWTS and a Mod Fam rerun (SWTS had a .8 I believe and the Mod Fam rerun built to a 1.1) The Castle rerun built to a 1.9. It appears that Castle has a good core audience regardless of lead in and the lead in doesn't appear to add much, at this point. This isn't directed at you, per se, the media in general appears to treat it as such when its been proven otherwise lately. In fact those weeks in Dec, H5-0 had a 2.8 out of 3.6 lead in and no one noticed that it was a mere few tenths over Castle with a bigger lead in.

Spot said...

Wasn't the 1.9 on 12/6 for Castle an original? Anyway, sorry if I made that sound like a backhanded swipe; you're right that I could've easily said "big lead-in-infused H5-0" as well. My point was just that even that small-ish boost that Castle gets takes it out of the range Harry's Law/Parenthood could achieve, even optimistically.

Anonymous said...

No biggie. I hear what you are saying.

Yes on 12/6 that was a Castle original but it basically got a 2.0 on its own, after the network all but shut the lights off for the proceeding 2 hours (do you remember the last time a major net got a .8 from 8-9:30 on a Monday outside of Summer?). Also worth noting: The net was pre-empted in Boston that night for MNF. Major market.

Castle also got a 2.4 last Spring building from a 1.9 Romantically Challenged. Basically it can get a 2.5 onm its own. For the 10p hour these days and especially on ABC, that's pretty good.

Your blog is really interesting and informative. Great job!

Anonymous said...

You'll be happy to know that ABC is making it easier for Harry's Law. Castle is a rerun on Jan 17th when HL premieres.

mccollum said...

I see big Live+SD numerals gain for H50, now that MNF is done.
The success of the Bachelor will depend on the casting, but it should do a solid #2 in its slot.

I predict FOX has a hit with The Chicago Code. It has a really good chance of holding House's lead in numbers.

The Cape will bomb & Harrys Law will wither away. Remember, this is NBC.

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