Thursday, April 7, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: The Odd Couple

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!

The Odd Couple
2.22 A18-49+True2014-15 Slot
132 1.94 Thursday 8:30

Timeslot OccupantsLife in Pieces
Avg Orig Avg
2.85 2.01 1.97 1.42

In a Nutshell: Nearly 11 months after it wrapped season one, sophomore comedy The Odd Couple returns tonight to serve as a key cog in CBS' plan to keep the lights on through the end of the regular season. The show will air in its season one timeslot at 8:30 for the final seven Thursdays of the season (five of them following an original The Big Bang Theory). It will also air five originals on Monday in May (mostly following Big Bang repeats), plus an extra original at 9:30 on the last Thursday of the season. Got all that?

Best Case: Big Bang's first post-DST episode last week was its healthiest point of the season. If it can stay even in raw numbers during the late spring, Odd Couple can do the same thing, hanging in the low-2's. And Odd Couple held up pretty well for the finale last year, its only episode following a repeat. So it clings to high-1's for all its other weird airings. Add that up and it's even in Plus, which is quite an accomplishment since it had 10/12 original BBT lead-ins last year. 1.97.

Worst Case: Nobody's going to care enough to keep up with this show's crazy scheduling, especially since the audience here is probably pretty casual to begin with. Even the Thursday 8:30 episodes perform pretty badly, with the premiere getting snowed under by American Idol's series finale. Like The Millers season two, it can't even retain half of TBBT originals, and it barely hits 1.0 in the other timeslots. 1.18.

Likeliest: It makes my brain hurt to piece all of these situations together... but I think it does pretty similar to a bit worse retention-wise compared with Life in Pieces in the 8:30 episodes, making for a high-1's average for those episodes. And the other eps will be a little south of 1.5 (declining a bit from repeats of TBBT). I come up with a 1.46, down by 34% from last year. Probably not enough to get an upgrade from this situation... but maybe CBS is thirsty enough for filler that it gets this kind of treatment again?

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