Thursday, April 14, 2016

Best Case/Worst Case: American Grit


Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. Here's what's premiering tonight!



American Grit (NEW!)

Timeslot OccupantsSleepy Hollow American Idol Thu
Avg Orig Avg
1.40 1.57 0.91 0.98 2.16 2.12

In a Nutshell: Life after American Idol begins on Fox tonight with a new Thursday lineup, starting with old reliable Bones at 8/7c and finishing with the new John Cena reality series American Grit, putting contestants through a series of military challenges.

Best Case: It's a solid counter-programming option on a night full of scripted programming. The appeal for patriotism could resonate, and John Cena has a huge following. It builds by a few ticks on its Bones lead-in and is a welcome addition to a post-Idol Fox lineup long-term. 1.45.

Worst Case: NBC already tried a very similar concept with Stars Earn Stripes in summer 2012. That show had celebrities and a ton of Olympic promotion... and it went south of a 40 Plus within a month. This one is headed for the south of 40 Plus territory, but faster and with less inflated early weeks. 0.50.

Likeliest: This may have even less going for it than Stars Earn Stripes did a few years ago. I'd give it more of a chance if it were on NBC, but I kinda doubt it really aligns with the audiences watching promos on Fox, and Bones is not going to be much of a lead-in. I don't think it bombs as spectacularly as some of Fox's greatest misses like I Wanna Marry Harry and Knock Knock Live, because it may have a little more reliable appeal to the older half of the demo. But this level wouldn't be spinnable as a success. 0.70.

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