First Two Weeks, Gotham

WEEK ONE
Rating: 3.2
Competition: Dancing with the Stars (2.2 overall, 1.9/2.1 in 8:00 hour), The Big Bang Theory (5.4), The Voice (3.9 overall, 3.4/3.7 in 8:00 hour), Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) (0.2).

The Question, Sunday 10/5/14: Will Mulaney Be a Ratings Laugher?

Tonight, Fox fills out its Sunday mixture of animated anchors and live-action comedies with the premiere of Mulaney. SNL writer John Mulaney's project ended up on Fox after failing to get a pickup at NBC. But the positive buzz seems to have died in the transition, with the show reportedly watered down from what made it promising in its early development. To boot, it doesn't seem like a great match with the raunchier Fox animated comedies. Will Mulaney be a ratings laugher? That's The Question for Sunday, October 5, 2014.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/2/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC's shows each went up a tenth.

• ABC's second edition of Thank God It's Thursday took a significant drop from the first one, but it was nothing too alarming. Grey's Anatomy (2.6) remained an outstanding option in the 8/7c hour, Scandal (3.3) was down a similar amount at 9/8c, and How to Get Away with Murder (3.2) only barely dropped more than the returnees (a good sign for a new series). As usual, the ABC finals will likely make this look even better.

• It was pretty much "bombs away" for the competing networks in the 9/8c hour. Only one big-four series premiere prior to this night had gone below 1.5, but it looks that number has instantly quadrupled. NBC's Bad Judge (1.3) attracted a surprising amount of total viewer interest but little in the demo, roughly matching its lead-in from The Biggest Loser (1.4 at 8:30). This was just behind last year's launch of Sean Saves the World (1.4) in the same slot. Lead-out A to Z (1.2) was not far behind. The best these shows can probably hope for is what happened to Sean (a small extension as schedule filler). And Fox went even behind Red Band Society numbers with mystery event series Gracepoint (1.2).

• The CW opened up its 2014-15 drama season with a "meh" start from The Vampire Diaries (0.9), which was a bit above its horrible spring returns but still down 25% year-to-year. But sophomore lead-out Reign (0.4) was a debacle, only tying its series low from the spring. It looks like it could be an even more serious problem than expected.

The Question Results Through 10/2/14

Here are the standings through October 2 for the ratings prediction game The Question. Since none of the October 2 premieres were on ABC, I think I'm fairly safe including it as an "under," but I will revise tonight or early tomorrow if any of them adjusts up to 1.5.

First Two Weeks, Madam Secretary

WEEK ONE
Rating: 2.0 (9:04 ET start time)
Lead-in: 60 Minutes (3.5 overall, 2.8 at 8:30)
Competition: Resurrection (R) (0.7), Sunday Night Football (8.1/8.4 in 9:00 hour), Family Guy (R)/American Dad! (1.4/1.5). Total: 10.4.

The Question, Thursday 10/2/14: What's the Verdict on Bad Judge, A to Z and Gracepoint?

Thursday #2 brings the fall's only case of series premieres competing head-to-head, with NBC's comedy block of Bad Judge and A to Z dueling with Fox's limited mystery series Gracepoint. These shows may have been held a week to avoid an inflated premiere of Scandal, but they also may have been simple "hide the weenie" situations. Both hours will have pretty low-rated veteran lead-ins from The Biggest Loser and Bones, so actual success is going to require bringing in some outside interest. Scandal and Thursday Night Football are not exactly soft opponents, but maybe there's an entertainment programming audience available that isn't interested in Scandal. What's the verdict on Bad Judge, A to Z and Gracepoint? That's The Question for Thursday, October 2, 2014.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 10/1/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC got its usual finals help, bringing all the returning comedies' drops into the single digits and Black-ish (2.6) to a slightly more reasonable -21%. Even Nashville (1.6) got a bump, surprisingly inching it ahead of a downward-adjusting Chicago PD (1.5). The Mysteries of Laura (1.5) was up to tie last week's timeslot premiere (as well as PD). This feels more like bad news for PD than good for Laura, but we'll see how things develop.

• Despite a very solid return from Criminal Minds (2.7, down just a tenth year-to-year), CBS' Stalker (2.0) had a modest start at 10/9c against little competition. The worst-reviewed show of the season now must hold up extremely well to be an improvement on last year's occupant CSI. At this point, it seems more likely that we'll soon be wondering what drama replaces it at midseason. And after a big premiere last week, Survivor (2.4) fell but was still on last year's week two pace.

• ABC's comedy lineup (at least preliminarily) dropped across the board in week two. The returnees The Middle (1.9), The Goldbergs (2.2) and Modern Family (3.5) were all down about 10% while Black-ish (2.5) was down close to 25%, keeping it right on par with the Super Fun Night track. But we'll see what bounty awaits the network in finals adjustments! Nashville (1.5) was even.

• NBC's crime dramas Law and Order: SVU (1.8) and Chicago PD (1.6) each took double-digit dips against the return of CBS dramas, while The Mysteries of Laura (1.4) held a bit better.

• Fox leveled off with Hell's Kitchen (1.4) and Red Band Society (1.1).

Premiere Week Year-to-Year: Winners, Losers, Networks

With Premiere Week 2014 in the books, let's take a look at how it compared with Premiere Week 2013. We'll examine the shows and timeslots that changed the most vs. 2013, plus the network race.

The Question, Wednesday 10/1/14: Will Viewers Follow Stalker Home?

CBS finishes out its new fall drama slate with the premiere of Stalker, airing after the season premiere of Criminal Minds. It actually takes some real effort to pull off (as of this writing) a 17 rating on Metacritic. (Even everyone's favorite punching bag Work It had a 19!) But poor critical reviews have never stopped Criminal Minds, and this show has the kind of dark and twisted premise that might appeal to the key demo more than the average CBS procedural. Nashville and Chicago PD should not be formidable competition, so I expect the vast majority of the Minds demo to stick around, at least for tonight. Will viewers follow Stalker home? That's The Question for Wednesday, October 1, 2014.

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 9/30/14

WHAT MATTERS:

• FINALS UPDATE: ABC had another big day at the adjustment bureau as Selfie (1.6) and Manhattan Love Story (1.5) took two-tenth leaps that might buy them more short-term time than originally thought (but the long-term prospects still look dim). Agents of SHIELD (1.8), Forever (1.4), The Voice (4.1) and New Girl (1.3) also upticked, while Chicago Fire (2.3) dropped.

• ABC's nearly week-long streak of good luck came to a decisive halt on Tuesday #2 as new comedies Selfie (1.4) and Manhattan Love Story (1.3) bombed. It's a particularly devastating blow for the much heavier-promoted Selfie, which was not able to display any separation from even its much-hated lead-out Manhattan. ABC could spring into action pretty quickly on this night because of how things went in the subsequent two hours. Agents of SHIELD (1.7) plummeted to a new low (though it tends to adjust up, so it may not end up being an outright low), while the premiere week underdog story that was Forever (1.3) came to a crashing halt with a whooping 28% drop. Forever remained a big improvement in a historically awful timeslot for ABC, but the long-term prospects look much darker now.

• CBS and NBC had another night of good week two holds as NCIS (2.6) dropped about 10%, newbie NCIS: New Orleans (2.3) was promisingly down just two tenths from last week and Person of Interest (1.8) actually inched up. NBC's The Voice (4.0) held up again and Chicago Fire (2.4) was down two tenths (maybe three after finals).

• Fox's New Girl (1.2) lost another tenth, but The Mindy Project (1.1) gained one back.