The Question, Tuesday 9/10/13: Will Sons of Anarchy Ride to New Heights?

Tonight the fall season in cable drama really kicks into the high-gear with the first return of a significant-rated series. (Sorry, Boardwalk Empire!) Sons of Anarchy is back with another of its patented 90-minute episodes. This has been yet another of those cable series that just keeps growing almost every year, and last season was no exception. We'll see in a few weeks if it can hold off its in-season broadcast competition again, but tonight it premieres against relatively little broadcast resistance. (I don't see much crossover between Sons and America's Got Talent.) Will Sons of Anarchy ride to new heights? That's The Question for Tuesday, September 10, 2013.

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Tuesday 9/8c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Tuesday 9:00	8.8	12	-18%	20	35.6	5	25%	14

A huge part of what plagues Tuesday programming these days is the 9:00 hour, which in 2012-13 was rather easily the least-broadcast viewed 9:00 hour on a weeknight. And that viewing was down the most year-to-year of any weeknight timeslot. The failures were many: ABC limped through much of the season with an ill-advised Happy Endings/Apartment 23 block, NBC had comedies Go On and The New Normal which collapsed during The Voice's hiatus, Fox's New Girl and The Mindy Project severely disappointed, and the CW aired its two biggest newbie bombs of the season Emily Owens M.D. and Cult.

The Question, Monday 9/9/13: How Many Millions Watch The Million Second Quiz?

The Question is back with NBC's first big stab at its new "event" programming approach, game show Million Second Quiz. It's been promoted incessantly, including Ryan Seacrest's much-booed appearance at the network's NFL opener. But if the NFL raised awareness, it'll also be an obstacle, as ESPN's Monday Night Football will throw a very appealing Redskins/Eagles game directly at MSQ on the East Coast. Throw in the game show dormancy and I'm projecting a modest, American Ninja Warrior level premiere. But it might grow tomorrow in the America's Got Talent halo!

Over/Under: 1.55.

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Monday 9/8c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Monday 9:00	10.9	5	-14%	17	36.8	3	30%	6

Like the Monday 8:00 hour, 9:00 had a ton of viewing and a ton of broadcast viewing, but it was one of primetime's most eroded hours on a year-to-year basis. 2 Broke Girls was not able to live up to Two and a Half Men's year-ago Kutcher-inflated numbers, Dancing with the Stars completely collapsed, and Fox was totally off the map in the fall with The Mob Doctor. Things brightened somewhat at midseason when Fox introduced The Following.

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Sunday 8/7c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Sunday 8:00	11.7	3	-8%	8	37.1	2	31%	5

It's hard to imagine the Sunday 8:00 hour having a truly horrible season on a year-to-year basis anytime soon, considering it consists of NFL football, which keeps getting stronger, and a couple shows that almost never take big drops (The Amazing Race and The Simpsons). The only real wild card is ABC's third-year drama Once Upon a Time, but what a wild card it is after collapsing during an ill-advised awards season run in season two.

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Saturday 8/7c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Saturday 8:00	4.1	21	-8%	9	27.4	21	15%	21

Saturday 8:00 is the least-viewed and the least-broadcast viewed hour of the whole week. I don't have a lot else to say!!!

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/5/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• The NFL made a great return to the airwaves with Baltimore at Denver up by 6% on the 9.7 demo from last year's Giants/Cowboys Wednesday opener. The start was weather-delayed by more than half an hour, so the last hour-plus of the game took place outside of primetime. (This means the True numbers below for 9-11 programs will probably come down later, as that extra late night hour deflated the overall viewing estimate.)

• As usual, the NFL had less impact on the entertainment programs than one might expect. Both Big Brother and USA's penultimate episode of Burn Notice (1.2) tied season highs.

Intro to Nielsen Ratings: History, Death of TV, Timeslots, Networks, Averages

This week, I'm unveiling a project I've been picking away at for months, an expanded version of my old Intro to Nielsen Ratings post. The three-part series began with the most basic factual info on how Nielsen ratings work and definitions of common terms. Last time, a deep look into the rationale behind the use of Live + Same Day and adults 18-49 ratings. Today, we wrap it up with a random grab bag of explanations behind some of this site's other tendencies.

As on the old post, please let me know if there's anything I should add, clarify or correct in these posts. I just want to get everything right.

Fall 2013 Best Case/Worst Case, Friday 8/7c

The Basics:

	bc	Rank	y2y	Rank	TPUT	Rank	bc/TPUT	Rank
Friday 8:00	5.0	19	-5%	3	27.9	20	18%	19

Though Friday 8:00 remained one of the least-viewed and least-broadcast viewed hours of the week, it actually had the third-smallest year-to-year decline among the broadcasters. ABC really got its act together, first with Shark Tank and then with the return of TGIF comedies, while CBS aired strong Friday option Undercover Boss in this hour across a much larger part of the season.

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 9/4/13

WHAT MATTERS:

• The big launches of comedies It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia (0.51) and The League (0.54) went very well on newly rebranded network FXX, as they combined to drop less than a tenth from last year's premieres on much higher coverage FX (0.64/0.58 respectively). And they held up even better in the target men 18-34 demo. They almost tied their FX competition The Bridge (0.54) in 18-49.