Monday, June 29, 2020

The Breakdown: NBC Tuesday in 2019-20 (Ellen's Game of Games, This Is Us, New Amsterdam and more!)




It's time for a journey through the NBC Tuesday schedule in 2019-20...

NOTE: In addition to classic A18-49+, Breakdown posts in 2019-20 also use CVPlus, comparing spring ratings against a higher league average due to viewership inflation from COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. See here for more.


fall


Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2018-19The VoiceThis Is UsNew Amsterdam182
174234139
2019-20The VoiceThis Is UsNew Amsterdam159 (-13%)
173 (0%)200 (-14%)104 (-25%)
VsAvg+42%+41%-8%+27%
Rank6/194/1912/194/19

NBC Tuesday remained dominant but on the decline, despite a fairly steady The Voice leading off. This Is Us was down double digits in the 9/8c hour and, coming off a tough spring, New Amsterdam couldn't get anywhere close to its big early season one results.

winter


Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2018-19Ellen's Game of GamesThis Is UsNew Amsterdam153
161194105
2019-20Ellen's Game of GamesThis Is UsNew Amsterdam133 (-13%)
128 (-20%)181 (-7%)92 (-13%)
VsAvg+30%+51%-15%+23%
Rank5/194/1914/194/19

At midseason, Ellen's Game of Games looked a lot weaker at 8/7c, but in spite of that the prospects actually brightened for the scripted duo. This Is Us managed to get down to mostly single-digit CVPlus declines, and New Amsterdam continued to track worse than TIU but not as bad as in the fall.

spring


Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2018-19The VillageThe VoiceNew Amsterdam84
6510383
2019-20Ellen's Game of GamesNew Amsterdam96 (+15%)
123 (+91%)89 (-14%)76 (-8%)
VsAvg+17%-11%-28%-7%
Rank8/1911/1918/1913/19

There was not really any kind of coherent lineup for NBC in the spring after This Is Us was over. Game of Games got an enormous boost in the early pandemic weeks but fizzled for some late spring editions. I include the end of the season for New Amsterdam at 10/9c but it was only two episodes in the spring 10/9c window. (Technically, the most frequent occupant was the NBC news coronavirus special reports.)

Rating the Ratings

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
The Voice Tue Fall*1.01.291.6-22%158big hit-10%detail
Ellen's Game of Games0.81.011.4-29%123solid-18%detail
The Voice Tue Spring*0.91.031.4-15%125hit-1%detail
This Is Us1.11.481.8-27%180big hit-15%detail
New Amsterdam0.60.771.0-28%94marginal-16%detail

The Voice Tue Fall: Already updated.

Ellen's Game of Games: It was very well set up to benefit from the pandemic in the early weeks, but a lot of that was cancelled out by the 9/8c episodes down the stretch. Those things somewhat conveniently cancel out and leave us with a trend similar to the winter decline, which suggests a show that still has some strength but is on a rather steep decline. Grade: C-.

The Voice Tue Spring: Already updated.

This Is Us: -15% is a lot, but its prospects improve almost any way you dig below the surface. It looks better in CVPlus (airing mostly pre-pandemic), better in the DVR numbers, and better in the winter than in the fall. That buys it some forgiveness. Grade: C+.

New Amsterdam: Looks better in all the same metrics as This Is Us; the trends were a bit worse but I also give it some extra forgiveness for bad fall comparisons since it's a sophomore which fell off a lot late last season. I remain surprised by the level of DVR strength for a show that seems like it could be live-heavy (a procedural with a big lead-in). It's wild to think that, after the year One Chicago had, this show was still within a tenth of Chicago Med in the Live+7 averages. Grade: C+.

The names in this last table link to the shows' War of 18-49 pages. Links with an asterisk(*) have been updated with the new info. Updates to younger shows will come later in the summer.

Previous Breakdowns for NBC Tuesday: 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19

Here's the now updated Schedules Plus for NBC Tuesday.

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