Friday, June 5, 2020

The Breakdown: ABC Monday in 2019-20 (Dancing with the Stars, The Bachelor, The Good Doctor and more!)




It's time for a journey through the ABC Monday schedule in 2019-20...

NOTE: In addition to classic A18-49+, Breakdown posts in 2019-20 also use CVPlus, comparing spring ratings against a higher league average due to viewership inflation from COVID-19 stay-at-home orders. See here for more.


fall


Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2018-19Dancing with the StarsThe Good Doctor105
100100113
2019-20Dancing with the StarsThe Good Doctor110 (+5%)
111 (+11%)111 (+11%)107 (-5%)
VsAvg+2%-17%-7%-8%
Rank11/1916/199/1915/19

After completely tanking last year, this year ABC fall pulled itself back up a little bit, driven by a decent rebound from Dancing with the Stars. Following severe declines in The Good Doctor's second season, it was down a much more reasonable amount in season three.

winter


Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2018-19The BachelorThe Good Doctor163
187187116
2019-20The BachelorThe Good Doctor189 (+16%)
229 (+23%)229 (+23%)108 (-7%)
VsAvg+86%+83%+21%+68%
Rank1/191/193/191/19

Once again, the winter was time to shine for ABC, with The Bachelor soaring past every other season in the history of the franchise and crushing ABC's previous records on this night. Like last year, the lead-in upgrade didn't make a lot of difference either way for Good Doc (though it soared for its two-part finale in late March, after the winter cutoff).

spring


Year8:008:309:009:3010:0010:30Avg
2018-19American IdolThe Fix97
12012051
2019-20The Bachelor Presents: Listen to Your HeartThe Baker and the Beauty61 (-37%)
66 (-45%)66 (-45%)50 (-1%)
VsAvg-43%-44%-39%-42%
Rank16/1919/1919/1919/19

But in the late spring, spin-off The Bachelor Presents: Listen to Your Heart proved that not everything the Bachelor name touches is ratings gold. It managed only a third the ratings average of the mothership. At 10/9c, new drama The Baker and the Beauty didn't cook up a lot of interest, but was competitive with year-ago bomb The Fix despite much weaker lead-ins.

Rating the Ratings

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
Dancing with the Stars Fall*0.70.861.1-10%105solid+5%detail
The Bachelor*1.31.822.5-2%222megahit+14%detail
The Bachelor Presents: Listen to Your Heart0.60.610.775marginaldetail
The Good Doctor0.70.861.1-22%105solid-10%detail
The Baker and the Beauty0.40.470.557flopdetail

Dancing with the Stars Fall: If it were really +5%, I would probably only give it a B or B-, because it stabilized albeit at a terrible number by DWTS historical standards. But the CVPlus adjustment feels meaningful here, as the rebound is more like double digits and the Plus is more like 110, which puts it more in line with a bunch of other lower-end DWTS seasons. So I will lean toward Grade: B+.

The Bachelor: For the second straight year, this was the best story for a returning series on broadcast TV, and this season saw it blow past the megahit label and all of its previous history. The +14% in Plus is an undercount if anything, as it wrapped up its season in the very last days before the viewing inflation hit. I don't see many opportunities to give this grade out this year, so on the first post of the season I'll go ahead and dole out the Grade: A+.

The Bachelor Presents: Listen to Your Heart: CVPlus is a little too harsh with this one since it aired in the second half of the spring, when the inflation was much less, and I'll hold off on the "F" line since it was fairly steady post-premiere. But I gave a "D" to Dancing with the Stars: Juniors last year, and this was spun off of a much, much stronger franchise. Huge disappointment. Grade: D-.

The Good Doctor: Like DWTS and The Bachelor, it is hurt in classic Plus comparisons because almost all its season aired prior to the spring. But it also had improved lead-ins all season long. Given how big it dropped the previous season, it definitely could've been worse, but still undeniably in decline. Grade: C+.

The Baker and the Beauty: This was another one of those confounding shows like Kevin (Probably) Saves the World that had not-awful looking same-day numbers at 10/9c, but did not have nearly the DVR interest you would expect of a 10/9c show. It had a similar Live+SD average to Stumptown and Emergence, but in the Live+7s it falls way behind them. Still, like with Listen to Your Heart I will give it a little credit for being steady post-premiere in the late spring. Grade: D+.

The names in this last table link to the shows' War of 18-49 pages. Links with an asterisk(*) have been updated with the new info. Updates to younger shows will come later in the summer.

Previous Breakdowns for ABC Monday: 2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | 2018-19

Here's the now updated Schedules Plus for ABC Monday.

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